What's behind the change? Energy alone would have increased inflation to nearly 3.2% in February (which may explain why some were anticipating an acceleration). But other items, coms and food in particular, pulled things down.

Overall, food's contribution has shrunk back to normal (as anticipated). Remaining sources of price pressure are home ownership (mainly mortgage rates) and rent. (Note: doesn't mean BoC at 'fault', since lower rates could lead to price increases elsewhere.)

And over the past three months, food and goods inflation has been *negative*. This continues an encouraging trend over the past many months. This data again suggests inflation pressures eased considerably and BoC may loosen soon.

Indeed, the key measures of the Bank of Canada have continued their strong decline. Three-month average of median/trim CPI measures are down to 2.3 and 2.4%, respectively. Great to see for #cdnecon.

And while it's not normally reported by the BoC, since there are conceptual issues here, it's *possible* to reconstruct an implied 3-month average change in CPI common. That shows an even strongly drop. All three main measures firmly within target.

I've said I expect the Bank to Lower rates very soon (perhaps at its next meeting?). I'm probably wrong, and most others don't expect movement that soon. But it's data like this that has consistently been showing inflation pressures dropping that is behind my optimistic takes.

There are higher than normal price increases for several services, to be clear. Restaurants being an important one. But this is a very very different picture than prevailed in much of the data last year.