Charalampos Mitrodimas

@charmitro@floss.social
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Charalampos MitrodimasMar 25
nixCraft 🐧Mar 25
What do you think? I hope he is right…
Charalampos MitrodimasMar 25, 2024
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nixCraft 🐧Mar 25
What do you think? I hope he is right…
Show threadDaniël Franke Mar 25

@nixCraft Doesn't seem unlikely, and while liking the money, I am dreading having to clean up the mess.

I honestly haven't been impressed at all with AI code, it can only do what's already been done, and even then it just apes it.

Show threadJuha AuteroMar 25
@ainmosni @nixCraft That's what stochastic parrots do.
Show threadDaniël Franke Mar 25

@jautero @nixCraft

Oh really... I had NO idea! Please educate me, and share your wisdom!

Show threadirelephantMar 25
@nixCraft I predict people will realise ai sucks, and by 2027 it will be really low.
Show threadSkjeggtrollMar 25

@nixCraft

10x pay to clean up two years of AI-written mess? Hell, no. Not worth it.

Show threadAlberto VenturiniMar 25
@skjeggtroll @nixCraft It'll be more like a rewrite from scratch.
Show threadevil and intimidating lesbianMar 25
@nixCraft my second ever commit at my current job was cleaning up a 300 line AI generated file and reducing it to a 30 line for loop
Show threadNic Roland Mar 25

@lea @nixCraft

...

Now I really wanna know the backstory. What was the first commit?

Show threadRégis HaubourgMar 25
@nixCraft added prediction :
2028- Senior devs able to fix AI mess and debt have made enough money. They buy a farm and run away from this mess.
Show threaddraxilMar 25

@nixCraft Slightly extreme numbers both way.

Good programmers are going to be more hard to find, because people coming up on vibe coding are going to struggle.

Show threadeickotMar 25
@nixCraft my experience working with LLMs, I don't think we can ever reach 100% right now, or they change the way is doing stuff, or won't be possible.
Show threadCraig DuncanMar 25
@nixCraft It's code vibing, and eventually the vibe is going to wane.
Show threadMelroy van den BergMar 25
@nixCraft 100% no way.. Even not in 2030.
Show threadLars Marowsky-Brée 😷Mar 25
@nixCraft I doubt his 2025 prediction will hold up already.
Show threadJacek WesołowskiMar 25
@nixCraft Various tech industries and their segments are in different stages of the hype cycle. For instance, in my current team there's no "AI code", unless some of the programmers are using "AI" as a tool in the same way they're using Intellisense and such. This isn't going to change before the end of this project, so the very first moment someone might try to introduce "AI code" is next year. By then the companies further down the cycle will have their first results / disasters.
Show threadSteve's PlaceMar 25
@nixCraft I'll jump on the 10x salary bandwagon. Time for a little payback.
Show threadFor Pete's Sake!Mar 25

@nixCraft I'm senior dev on my project. I've 30+ years in the industry and looking after a bunch of fresh graduate developers.

I spend my days cleaning up AI slop from their code #facepalm

I recently had one developer "fix" a non fatal error filling up the log files... .... by commenting out the line that wrote to the logs.

I yearn for my retirement in 10 years.

Show threadFish Id WardrobeMar 25
@PeteLittle @nixCraft I'll consider it a win when my colleagues can use version control without my help.
Show threadslotosMar 25
@PeteLittle @nixCraft All I’m hearing, I have the third chance to build my pension fund!
Show threadNoel KellyMar 25

@nixCraft
@cstross

Me, last week...
https://ruby.social/@gnoll110/114187965449790749

Noel Kelly (@gnoll110@ruby.social)

@zachleat@zachleat.com His limiting resource is going to be maintenance programmers.

Ruby.social
Show threadDeterioratedStuccoMar 25
@gnoll110 @nixCraft @cstross
And testers!
Show threadMartin Mar 25
@nixCraft for now it is not possible yet. When you ask more advanced stuff it comes with code that doesn’t work. And keeps retrying it in a few ways. But only tries it max 3 different ways and if it all doesn’t work it keeps retrying those 3 ways which will never work 😅
Show threadAndreas FinkMar 25
@nixCraft @zeitschlag 2026: 100% of code is written by AI, then 50% of code then is rewritten by humans to make it barely work and the other 50% is exploited by cyberterrorist
Show threadDeus Ex MacGuffin Mar 25

@nixCraft

That prediction is not even close. Right now when I ask an AI to write a powershell script that does X, it will come up with something using commandlets that don’t actually exist. You can’t debug code that is made from the magical land of Peter Pan, where everything you imagine becomes reality.

I always end up writing the script myself from scratch.

Show threadschrotieMar 25
@nixCraft It's going to be a very rough ride for early adopter companies having their code developed by AI now. But the classical code grunt carreer is dead mid-term and the new model of code development (which will also need technical experts, but with a somewhat different focus) is not yet established.
Show threadPhosphenesMar 25

@nixCraft

Even if AI-written code is great and golden, there is no way we can use it for secure or critical applications unless a human understands every single line and all the interactions.

The hours to audit all that are comparable to the hours it would take to write it manually in the first place.

Show threadSolomunMar 25
@nixCraft 99% sure some lazy ass somewhere in the world will use AI to program some nuclear missile or something (maybe already has :) )
Show threadSamMar 25
@nixCraft
2027 - 100% code is peer reviewed by AI and rigorously optimised
Show threadFreevoltMar 25
@nixCraft Development is never only about writing code.
Show threadferricoxideMar 25
@nixCraft

Notice that nowhwere does it say "X% of actually used code is written by AI".
Show threadMathieuMar 25
@nixCraft I sure hope he's wrong on the timeline and people realise before this....
Show threadD4lt0nMar 25
@nixCraft He is dreaming
Show threadDavid HaighMar 25
@nixCraft 2027 - no code written because of Butlerian Jihad
Show threadPterryMar 25
@nixCraft makes you wonder why the company is called anthropic. And not - say - misanthropic.
Show threadBebnaMar 25
@nixCraft 2027 bailout for the it sector after they already collected their winnings in the previous years
Show threadbdf2121cc3334b35b6ecda66e471Mar 25
@nixCraft I think this is painfully accurate, and I think that a lot of people are going to be hurt in the process.
Show threadmar01Mar 25

@nixCraft

Totally agree with him.
I noticed he works for Google too! That says a lot.

Show threadSasha AkhaviMar 25
@nixCraft
#AI ‘s own prediction:
2025 - 90% of code written by AI
2026 - 317% of code written by AI
2027 - just thousands of fire emojis
Show threadGayDeceiverMar 25
@nixCraft That checks
Show threadDibsMar 25
@nixCraft I find AI most helpful for explaining what code does. It's also handy if you need the "path" to a specific element of a massive JSON schema.
Show threadslotosMar 25
@dtwx @nixCraft dunno about the former, but the latter is a parser and a fuzzy finder job. As a freebie, they don’t hallucinate.
Show threadOptimistic MoronMar 25
@nixCraft
January 3, 2026 - The Judgement Day
2027 -100% of code is scratched with pointy sticks by surviving great apes on wet and radioactive sand.
Show threadcrazyeddieMar 25

@nixCraft If you are the type of coder that copies code from stackoverflow, AI just might be able to do your job. That's basically what it does and then a bit more.

I tried the public chat ones to do a couple things. I needed to copy/paste some C++ code into Python and convert it. Had to talk to the same hardware. The AI did wonderfully.

It couldn't make a C++03 TMP thing to create the fizzbuzz string--but it would have convinced some. It guessed about what my code does when asked.

Show threadcrazyeddieMar 25

@nixCraft The last one was actually interesting because it got more and more wrong the more in depth I wanted it described. At the upper level it got it quite accurate. Was able to say what the resulting variable could do. But when asked HOW that was done it went into hypotheticals and got them all wrong.

From what I've read, which isn't much, these things just don't understand context at all. They don't understand the languages they speak. My tests rather confirmed this.

Show threadTijgertje1987Mar 25
@nixCraft as a freelancer I’m gonna make good bucks cleaning up that crap and securing it.
I was thinking about a rate of 300+ euro per hour 😈😂
Show threadalejandroMar 25
@nixCraft he isn’t. AI is a tool. Ask for changes review, refactor.
Show threadQ.H. StoneMar 25
@nixCraft I know Sharlaimov's secondary predictions are meant to be humorous, but the idea that 90% of code by the end of 2025 will be written by AI is ludicrous. People making that kind of prediction don't understand LLMs at all. They can generate new code but they cannot read and understand old code for the simple fact that they don't *understand* things. They're not AGI. Even their generation of new code is unreliable.
Show threadsupernovaMar 25
@nixCraft I work in an embedded environment where everything potentially influences everything and we build the framework so it does not. The CTO more or less shouts at us to use Copilot more and I see the results... I am troubled by what I am seeing. People depend on what we do, in some projects with their life. W can only depend on tests, really, but they were the first things that became AI-enshittified.
Show threadNotanexpertMar 25
@nixCraft - saw this news article- is it really due to AI?
Show threadErik “Lacraia” MagnussonMar 26
@nixCraft Me too! Looking forward to being debt free in 2029🤑
Show threadhacknorrisMar 27
@nixCraft block me