BrokenBankergreat 🧵 on The Specials' 'Ghost Town'. RIP Terry Hall: https://twitter.com/TheWrongtom/status/1404413760870158337?s=20&t=UxEAGqc7lMycjMBxWERgGA
@bauhinia
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残り物には福がある. Trafiquant de l’ésotérique. Financiaphaster. Usually couth, sometimes kempt, often gruntled. Strong opinions, held weekly, sometimes more often.
Because it comes with less baggage as a newbie, there is a fair bit of serendipity, which is one of the things I also like about The Other Place.
Renee DiResta
Timothy B. LeeI’m really missing the Twitter feature where they aggregate favorites and retweets so your mentions aren’t swamped by them.
Was listening to Undercurrent just an hour ago. Great album!
Is that the "Home" feed? I didn't know OG Twitter users used it anymore. Thought everyone was on Latest.
I hit 'Home' by mistake the other day. Disaster.
Shorts? There were some who got killed on theirs earlier this year, and some who said they would keep them forever. Those people did OK today I expect.
The BOJ owned a LOT of the 10yr (someone at BBG reported a week or two ago they owned more than 100% of it but I did not delve into it). For that, I don't think the trade was overly large.
Not sure anyone was levered long with curve out of whack like that.
I can shorten the above.
BOJ moved to remove the kink in the curve. Markets' knees jerked. Then unjerked. No biggie.
For now, I don't know how bad the FX carry trade is. It WAS big, and MOF is up quite nicely on their intervention. In 1998, it was knockin options and similar which killed things. Broke 129 then 128 then it was 120. A day later 112. That was retail and global macro carry trader positioning. Not sure how either are positioned now.
Near-term, my only "big" worries are chaos in the basis, knee-jerk reactions by lifers, etc because of it, and/or a very sharp move in USD/yen as buy-the-dip carry traders get stomped.
As I mentioned earlier, the move in late 1998 which hurt was the one AFTER the move from 146 to 132.
The Japan Times article out the other day seemed pointed at an even bigger picture. If it was, I don't see it yet. But it is an interesting idea that the BOJ might pivot in some way which would oblige cash-hoarding corporates to invest. Corp polls the last two months suggest no such tilt on their part, but the BOJ works with a long horizon. And it is clearly a govt priority to get financial assets put to work better.