Alexander Roth

@aroth
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Affiliate Fellow @ Bruegel & researcher @ DIW_Berlin,
Personalhttps://roth-a.de

3) Lacking strong competencies in fiscal and energy policy, the Commission focused on coordination (https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/how-europe-should-respond-iran-gas-shock-and-how-it-shouldnt) and relaxing state aid in the short term

4) It urged governments to use only targeted measures as a response to the higher fossil fuel prices. Our Bruegel tracker (https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/2026-european-energy-crisis-fiscal-response-tracker) shows that most measures are untargeted, though.

Last week, the #EU Commission published a plan outlining how to address the Iran #energy #crisis:

❓How to read the AccelerateEU plan?

🔗 https://www.bruegel.org/first-glance/how-read-european-commissions-iran-crisis-energy-emergency-plan

1) The Commission, unlike some national governments, kept its transition course: Europe's climate policies will lead to fewer fossil-fuel imports
2) Electrification is key: it enables efficiency and the use of domestically generated electricity for transport, heating, and industry

(3) The majority of measures are untargeted and focus on lowering energy prices - instead of helping vulnerable groups and promoting structural change

And here the link again: https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/2026-european-energy-crisis-fiscal-response-tracker

(1) European governments have so far committed almost €10.46 billion in fiscal measures

(2) Spain and Germany are responsible for more than 50% of all amounts combined; Spain, Bulgaria, Greece, and Sweden have committed the most in terms of GDP

💥 New Bruegel dataset: the "2026 European energy crisis fiscal response tracker"

To mitigate the economic impacts of this major #energy shock on households and businesses, several #European governments are introducing a range of fiscal measures. This #tracker provides an overview of these short-term measures.

🔗 https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/2026-european-energy-crisis-fiscal-response-tracker

Three key insights 👇

Thanks to my Bruegel colleagues Ugnė Keliauskaitė, Ben McWilliams, Thomas Mramor, Simone Tagliapietra, and Georg Zachmann for great joint work!

🧾 Read the full analysis here 👉 https://doi.org/10.64153/JZBJ2858

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❌ What to avoid:
- Fuel tax cuts and broad subsidies that risk driving up demand
- Short-term interventions in the electricity market that destroy investor confidence
- Rolling back carbon pricing

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✅ What to do:
- Promote savings and ensure that the storage is filled to have a buffer for the next winter
- Push for structural demand reduction by fuel switching and electrification (e.g., through lower electricity taxes)
- Engage with other major LNG buyers to coordinate global gas savings

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⚠️ The situation:
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced global LNG supply by 20%
- 4% of the EU's gas imports come from Qatar
- Despite this small share, the EU faces an energy bill shock: if high prices persist, the EU’s energy bill could increase by €100bn over the next 12 months

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Our latest Bruegel analysis: How #Europe should respond to the Iran #gas shock – and how it shouldn’t

tl;dr The EU should prepare for persistently higher gas prices and use this crisis to accelerate long-term decoupling from fossil fuels by pushing electrification even faster

🔗: https://doi.org/10.64153/JZBJ2858

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