3) Lacking strong competencies in fiscal and energy policy, the Commission focused on coordination (https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/how-europe-should-respond-iran-gas-shock-and-how-it-shouldnt) and relaxing state aid in the short term

4) It urged governments to use only targeted measures as a response to the higher fossil fuel prices. Our Bruegel tracker (https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/2026-european-energy-crisis-fiscal-response-tracker) shows that most measures are untargeted, though.

(3) The majority of measures are untargeted and focus on lowering energy prices - instead of helping vulnerable groups and promoting structural change

And here the link again: https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/2026-european-energy-crisis-fiscal-response-tracker

(1) European governments have so far committed almost €10.46 billion in fiscal measures

(2) Spain and Germany are responsible for more than 50% of all amounts combined; Spain, Bulgaria, Greece, and Sweden have committed the most in terms of GDP

✅ What to do:
- Promote savings and ensure that the storage is filled to have a buffer for the next winter
- Push for structural demand reduction by fuel switching and electrification (e.g., through lower electricity taxes)
- Engage with other major LNG buyers to coordinate global gas savings

3/5

⚠️ The situation:
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced global LNG supply by 20%
- 4% of the EU's gas imports come from Qatar
- Despite this small share, the EU faces an energy bill shock: if high prices persist, the EU’s energy bill could increase by €100bn over the next 12 months

2/5

So, what are the main takeaways?

▶️ Flexible heat pumps with thermal storage can provide valuable flexibility to the power sector.
▶️ They can reduce the need to build other flexible power plants or storage.
▶️ Hourly electricity prices are key for incentivizing optimal heat pump use.
▶️ To that end, households need to be equipped with 'smart meters' (Germany needs to speed up).
▶️ An ambitious rollout of heat pumps can significantly reduce natural gas consumption, CO2 emissions, and costs.

And for the nerds, some details on the method 🤓

* We use a linear cost-minimization model of Germany and its neighboring countries with the sexy name #DIETER.
* Different heat pump rollout scenarios until 2030 are modeled (1.7, 3, 6, and 10 million units).
* #BEV and #hydrogen demand is also included.

And some further points:

* An ambitious heat pump rollout would be best matched with additional wind power, but solar PV also works if combined with other technologies.
* We calculate that small (<2 h) heat storage makes sense economically; larger ones are too expensive and anyway unrealistic for private households and will be rather used in heating grids.