J.P. Morgan’s supply-chain mapping suggests the last pre-disruption Persian Gulf cargoes hit South-East Asia, South Asia and East Africa by about 1 April, Europe by about 10 April, and the US by about 15 April. Australia's is due by 20 April... after those dates, the absence of replenishment becomes much harder to hide.

The Strait of Hormuz disruption is not just about crude. Analysts and logistics reporting say it also hits LNG, LPG, petrochemicals, methanol, plastics feedstocks and helium, which means the pain doesn’t stop at the bowser. It runs through manufacturing, freight, construction inputs, chemicals and tech supply chains as inventories thin out.

So the sequence is roughly this:

First, people panic locally.
Then wholesalers and retailers start paying up to secure supply.
Then inventories that were already on the water get delivered.
Then the pipeline starts running dry.
That is when the shock stops being a story for traders and shipping nerds and starts becoming obvious to everyone else.

Australia sits in that early wave. The map’s timing lines up with reports that parts of Asia have already been scrambling for replacement cargoes, with even unusual US Gulf Coast-to-Australia distillate routes being used to plug gaps.

And if the disruption drags on, this stops being about “higher prices” and becomes about allocation.

Who gets fuel.
Who pays more.
Which industries keep moving.
Which ones start slowing, rationing, or passing costs straight through to households.

Barclays says that the Hormuz disruption could remove 13 - 14 million barrels a day from global supply, while Kpler says cumulative losses could exceed 400 million barrels by mid-April if flows don’t normalise.

So yes, shortages so far have been partly behavioural... fear, stockpiling, domestic scrambling.
But the actual physical supply problem has yet to come.

For our part of the world, the cliff edge is very close. By mid-April, the “surely they’ll sort it out” phase gives way to the “oh, this is real” phase. Europe follows. The US later, but still not immune, especially through price rather than outright physical scarcity.

In other words... the panic buying is the opening act.
The real show starts when the ships stop arriving.

From The Gerk https://substack.com/@snarkygherkin/note/c-234844710?utm_source=notes-share-action

#IranWar

In today's episode of "Can It Run Doom": DNS fucking TXT records.

Some absolute madlad (cough Adam Rice cough) compressed the entire shareware DOOM WAD, split it into around 1,964 chunks, shoved them into Cloudflare TXT records, and wrote a PowerShell script that reassembles and runs the whole goddamn game from DNS queries alone. Nothing touches disk. The DLLs are in DNS. THE FUCKING DLLS ARE IN DNS.

RFC 1035 was written in 1987. Those engineers are spinning in their graves fast enough to generate municipal power.

Bonus: this is a fully functional globally-distributed covert data exfil channel that your NGFW will never fucking see if you're not doing deep DNS inspection. Sleep well.

blog: https://blog.rice.is/post/doom-over-dns/

repo: https://github.com/resumex/doom-over-dns

Also lmao @ every blue team that has never once looked at their DNS query volume. How's that DLP policy working out for you.

It was always DNS.

#infosec #dns #doom #itisalwaysdns

Jede 3. Schwangerschaft endet ungewollt vor der 16. Woche.

Das bedeutet, in eurem Umfeld gibt es viele Menschen, die das (auch) betrifft.

Heilige scheisse diese Ölpreise

Gut, dass ich kein Auto besitze

The art of Pysanky: traditional egg decorating from Europe

[📹vilsonpessanka] #globalmuseum #craft #Pysanky