This Wk's Top 3 P'cast | The House debate over the funding source for the FY26 Supplemental, the House Majority tries again to Orwellianize the term “fiscally responsible” & the issues around the competing LNG import projects. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-weekly-top-3-3162026
AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets
@AK4SB
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A non-partisan project focused on helping develop and advocate for responsible state and federal fiscal policies.
The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $89, ahead of both Brent (+$.066) and Brent/WTI avg ($3.63). #akleg
🤔 It's somewhat disconcerting to see so-called "fiscal conservatives" (& others) con't to defend a govt-run investment corporation that is paying nearly $1 BILLION in outside fees annually for mediocre results (even less than its own passive benchmark). #akleg
This Week's Column| DOR's Spring Revenue Forecast continues to show that oil tax reform is needed. This week we explain how. #akleg https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-what-the-spring
The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 10.7% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.08% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 14.90% v PFC 12.43%
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$220mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $13 (+$599mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $6 (avg annual +$172mil)
#akleg
The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $4 (+$176mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $11 (+$492mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $5 (avg annual +$172mil)
#akleg
The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg
First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $7), mid (⬆️ $4) & long-term (⬆️ $2) v. SPRING26 F'cast (rev).
Second, we chart revenues derived from that same market strip against those projected in the same 10-year rev f'cast. Projected FY26 ⬆️ $3.56/b (+$125mil UGF), FY26-35 avg $75 ($2.86B avg UGF, ⬆️ $180 mil v SPRING26 F'cast rev).
The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 72% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running 3% ⬆️ SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $78. #akleg
Building on that, we publish a second chart tracking the impact of the revs generated at current projected oil price levels against the FY26 waterfall. At projected price, production & spending levels, projected revs are $75mil ⬆️ breakeven.
This Week's Column| DOR's Spring Revenue Forecast continues to show that oil tax reform is needed. This week we explain how. #akleg https://buff.ly/F9VoMhE
