Mastodawn

This Week's Column| SFIN is proposing to change the percent-of-market-value draw rate. In this week's column, we discuss the modifications that are needed to better protect both future generations and the PFD. #akleg
https://bgkeithley.substack.com/p/the-friday-column-thoughts-on-changing

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 11h ago

The House Majority's use of the term "fiscally responsible" is Orwellian. Proposing additional spending without proposing offsetting revenues - and #WhoPays those revenues - is the opposite of "responsible", it's irresponsible. #akleg https://buff.ly/B5t24GF

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 13h ago

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 11.07% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.15% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 18.81% v PFC 12.43%

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 13h ago

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$79mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $8 (+$314mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$70mil)
#akleg

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

This Wk's Top 3| The debate over funding the FY26 Supplemental, the House Majority again demonstrates it doesn't know what "fiscally responsible" means & the competing LNG import projects. #akleg T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at https://www.facebook.com/share/1HCVU1k2d3/

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $3 (+$118mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $9 (+$354mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$70mil)
#akleg

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

Let's be clear. Those pushing to use PFD cuts to fund govt are advocating to ECONOMICALLY HARM 80% OF #AKFAMS (take more from their pockets than any other revenue option). #akleg #useless https://iseralaska.org/2026/01/alaskas-fiscal-options/

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 10.96% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.82% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 20.12% v PFC 12.43%

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2025-26 Enstar price is 8% ⬇️ Asia, 175% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 5% ⬆️ Asia, 182% ⬆️ L48. #akleg

Even though it's not projected to be available until 2031, we have also started including Wood Mackenzie's recent projection of the delivered cost of #AKLNG Phase I. At 2031 start-up date, projected AKLNG Phase I price is 75% ⬆️ Asia.