Mastodawn

May Oil Mkt Rpts| The EIA report attempts to reflect both the lower overall production and demand levels anticipated from the Iran War and the UAE's departure from OPEC. IEA reflects some of the first. At this point, however, OPEC continues to project business as usual. #akleg

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 3h ago

Monthly, we take a look at various indices of Alaska income. This month's chart compares Alaska PCE (personal consumption expenditures) vs median household income since 2000. The growing spread indicates that the standard of living for the median Alaska family is under increasing strain. #akleg

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 4h ago

The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 (EM) ret'n, 1 (EM) headed to Asia. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 7.7
* Not in ANS service: 1 (CP) in maint
* Asia: 2 (EM)
* USWC: 10 (4 CP, 3 HIL, 1 XOM, 1 MPC)

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 6h ago

The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg

𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow two measures of inflation:

> First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?graph_id=1413787
PCE: up 50.0% (5.0%/yr)
CPI: up 26.2% (2.6%/yr)

1/2

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 7h ago

The 2021 #AKLEG Fiscal Policy Working Group was right. Alaska's broken fiscal approach requires a comprehensive solution. SJR29 -on the House floor TODAY- is a partial fix designed to benefit one budget category at the significant expense of all others. We strongly urge a NO vote. https://bit.ly/4dpc6NW

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $115, ahead of both Brent (+$8.56) and Brent/WTI avg ($12.37). #akleg

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

Since this is paid for with PFD cuts ("most regressive tax ever proposed"), all the #akleg is doing is taking $$ from middle & lower-income #AKfams to benefit a subset. Instead of offering a hand up, it is a hand-over. The Top20% #akleg "feel good" w/o contributing. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/alaska-legislature/2026-05-08/juneau-lawmakers-bill-to-boost-legal-aid-funding-for-vulnerable-alaskans-heads-to-the-governor

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

Hearing some claim revenue from the #AKLNG project will improve future PFDs? DON'T BELIEVE IT. Buried in the House version of the #AKLNG bill is this provision already dividing it up among other uses:

#akleg

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 87% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running 9% ⬆️ SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $82. #akleg

Building on that, we publish a second chart tracking the impact of the revs generated at current projected oil price levels against the FY26 waterfall. At projected price, production & spending levels, projected revs are $199mil ⬆️ breakeven.

AKs 4 Sustainable Budgets 1d ago

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart comparing the S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns to the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.80% v PFC 6.58%
* 3-yr: S&P 23.12% v PFC 8.63%
* 1-yr: S&P 26.75% v PFC 11.10%