Mastodawn

Baldur Bjarnason

Current “AI” from my perspective is less like a technological breakthrough—“the genie is out of the bottle”—and more a research fusion reactor: no matter how much energy and money you throw at the thing, nothing changes the fact that it costs more energy than it produces

All that scaling it up accomplishes is waste. LLM true believers are effectively arguing their tech accomplishes free energy when the costs mean it’s effectively the opposite

Baldur Bjarnason 2d ago

Trillions invested, entire industries destroyed, our information ecosystem fundamentally compromised, and all we accomplished was, at best, a 0-5% bump in overall economic productivity.

Baldur Bjarnason 2d ago

Muting this thread because the replies are showing signs of deterioration.

elmuerte 2d ago

@baldur Prove it. Where is this economic productivity increase?
Also, please explain what "economic productivity" even entails? Are we ignoring repair/rework/support/maintenance?

Baldur Bjarnason 2d ago

@elmuerte Note that I said "at best".

And economic productivity is a very specific measure of output over input. It leaves a lot out that's important but that's economists for you.

Jennifer Moore 😷2d ago

You might have misread what @baldur said?

The expression "at best" means you're describing a cap or maximum. You're not saying the number necessarily _is_ that high.

To _disprove_ a statement in that form, logically you'd have to prove that the benefit was _higher_ than 5% - and I don't think that's what you're arguing.

elmuerte 2d ago

@unchartedworlds @baldur I was doubting those percentages to even be that high. Unless you eliminate a lot of factors, so basically tune the numbers to support the narrative of increased economic productivity.
But as per Baldur's reply, reported increase is probably the "statistics" part of the famous quote.

Jeff Grigg 1d ago

@elmuerte @unchartedworlds @baldur

"at best, a 0-5%" certainly includes the possibility that it could be negative. Possibly very negative.

Alan is @cogdog 🇨🇦2d ago

@baldur powered by cold fusion!

@baldur Except that fusion power generation might actually be possible, LLMs doing what AI proponents claim they can or will isn't possible. There *is* value in the underlying architecture (deep learning transformers), but LLMs are a dead-end technology. There is nowhere to take that research beyond what it's already produced. At best, an LLM is an interesting trinket like those executive toys, except if they were assembled by enslaved toddlers and ran exclusively on high-sulfur coal.

Bill, organizer of stuff 2d ago

@StarkRG @baldur ☝️ This.

Ray McCarthy 2d ago

@StarkRG @baldur
The easy way do do fusion power today is solar panels and LFP batteries. We can see a local working example.
Though a terrestrial one is proving hard.

Unlike LLMs where the only known proof is that they fail if fed their own output.

Jeff Grigg 1d ago

@raymaccarthy @StarkRG @baldur

"Unlike LLMs where the only known proof is that they fail if fed their own output."

Aaand, ...
We're feeding them their own output.

🙄

Guillotine Jones, Flâneur 2d ago

@baldur
This slight-of-hand hiding the energy inefficiency of Ai is partially made possible by externalizing costs from morbidly rich oligarchs onto the rest of us.

DCKIM [toronto tech blog]2d ago

@baldur that's actually a very adequate direct comparison because an argument again datacentres which are used for this purpose is that they consume too much electrical power.

But what are the real results in terms of found efficiencies? And does that tip the scales?

There have been some medical break-throughs.

Is this a total fail?

Also, where are we at with Fusion-Nuclear Power anyway?

Marc Geffen 2d ago

@baldur I think this is true at current energy costs. I can see AI oligarchs embracing renewable energy and conservation policies to try save their own asses, which will pit them against the fossil fuel oligarchs. Could get interesting.

@marcgeffen
Judging by observed behavior, they will push through subsidies and come to an arrangement with the fossil fuel oligarchs (insofar as they aren’t the same people anyway).
@baldur

@baldur I don't understand your argument - are you suggesting AI should generate energy?
But isn't it the same with every technology? - If you throw more money and energy at "the Internet" for example, it will also always consume more energy than it will produce.
I'm curious to understand your argument.

Gravitational Binding Energy 2d ago

@claus @baldur do you make a habit of going online to pretend to be stupid and illiterate

@decay @baldur Do you make a habit of being mean to someone you don't know who is asking questions about an argument he doesn't get? In my world I like to listen to people and their arguments, and have a discussion about them. I can't see you adding anything from value to the topic, so I guess you just aren't interested in exchange, but only want to be mean?

Captain Jack Sparrow 2d ago

the USA is so invested into the #aihype that they have to keep fuelling the myth

@baldur I feel like this is deeply insulting to research fusion reactors, a thing that would actually be useful if we could get it to work

purple: licenced to sticky plaster 1d ago

@blahajj @baldur heh, yeah there is a certain irony that if we'd thrown anything like this much public funds at fusion we'd at the very least have got some neat physics and engineering knowledge, if not an actual productive reactor.

The Liquid Schwartz 2d ago

@baldur all that's true. The CEOs know it. The institutional investors know it too. Hell even the NVIDIA and the large IT infrastructure companies building out the server farms know what the game is. The bullshit story being sold about "fusion" as you like it -- that's the vehicle. The vehicle is there to drive authoritarian surveliance infrastructure. Once it's built it doesn't matter if the economy pops, who gets soaked, or what bullshit contrivances you were lied to about "AI"

Nicole Parsons 1d ago

You know this already; but it's worth sharing again.

AI has several purposes for its fossil fuel investors:
1. Wage suppression & thwarting labor unions
https://fortune.com/2026/04/23/nursing-gig-economy-minimum-wage-ai-surveillance/

https://www.thenation.com/article/economy/labor-notes-conference-ai-unions/

https://www.bloodinthemachine.com/p/they-just-formed-the-biggest-tech

2. Tax subsidies
https://www.internationalaccountingbulletin.com/news/kpmg-acquires-stake-in-ai-powered-tax-incentive-platform-incentify/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-06-17/ai-s-1-billion-tax-grab-data-centers-in-focus-video

3. Maximizing wasteful fossil fuel use
https://www.wired.com/story/new-gas-powered-data-centers-could-emit-more-greenhouse-gases-than-entire-nations/

https://www.wired.com/story/trump-energy-industry-ai-fossil-fuels-pittsburgh-summit/

4. Price gouging
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-ai-data-centers-electricity-prices/

https://www.consumerreports.org/data-centers/ai-data-centers-impact-on-electric-bills-water-and-more-a1040338678/

1/

The tech industry is applying an Uber-style ‘gigification’ model to nursing. It means no workers’ comp, AI managers, and ‘surveillance wages’

A report by the AI Now Institute found popular healthcare staffing apps are sidestepping worker rights.

Fortune

Nicole Parsons 1d ago

2/

5. Price fixing cartels

https://www.hwcooling.net/en/almost-like-price-fixing-memory-manufacturers-hike-prices-in-sync/

https://www.propublica.org/article/doj-realpage-settlement-rental-price-fixing-case
https://jacobin.com/2025/12/realpage-ai-rent-raising-lawsuit

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ndp-motion-surveillance-pricing-9.7164611

https://moneywise.com/news/economy/ai-memory-chip-shortage-pc-prices-2026

https://www.barrons.com/articles/companies-test-ai-for-variable-pricing-consumer-targeting-retail-airlines-supermarkets-9390f661

6. Tax loss harvesting

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/personal-finance/tax-loss-harvesting

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinmckenna/2026/02/23/tax-loss-harvesting-through-direct-indexing/

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Worlds-Top-Oil-Companies-To-Rake-In-Extra-234-Billion-In-War-Profits.html

If you'd been told to expect $234 billion in windfall profits, wouldn't you plan ahead to evade the taxes using tax loss harvesting schemes?

The bonkers AI & crypto investment hype of $100 billion
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/saudis-plan-100-billion-ai-powerhouse-to-rival-uae-s-tech-hub

Almost like price fixing, memory manufacturers hike prices in sync - HWCooling.net

Not long ago, we reported bad news about NAND Flash prices. Western Digital announced across-the-board increases for HDDs, and its SanDisk division raised prices for NAND and SSDs built from them. It now looks like that was just the beginning—broad price hikes across the memory market are ahead. Samsung, one of the largest producers, has […]

HWCooling.net

Nicole Parsons 1d ago

3/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/shehanchandrasekera/2024/12/08/everything-you-need-to-know-about-crypto-tax-loss-harvesting/

7. Circular finance fraud
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/dec/28/nvidia-insists-it-isnt-enron-but-its-ai-deals-are-testing-investor-faith

https://www.wheresyoured.at/nvidia-isnt-enron-so-what-is-it/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-says-it-isnt-using-circular-financing-schemes-2-famous-short-sellers-disagree-100021210.html

https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-algorithm-that-detected-a-610

Everything You Need To Know About Crypto Tax-Loss Harvesting

Crypto tax-loss harvesting tips to reduce your tax bill as the price of bitcoin continues rising.

Forbes

roboberto 1d ago

@baldur it helps me a lot with things I already know, but it never helps me with things I don't yet know :(