Simon Brooke6d ago

We all know that #ScottishLabour are much closer to the #SNP on policies than they are to #UKLabour. So would it be a good thing for Scotland if SNP/ScotLab were to agree a coalition deal in which:

1. ScotLab would support the call for #IndyRef2, but would not necessarily campaign for #ScottishIndependence and
2. ScotLab would get the Cabinet Secretary for Transport, with a remit to nationalise Scotland's buses?

#ScotPol

Yes, Coalition
Yes, but Confidence & Supply
No, no deal with the hated enemy
Three way coalition with Greens as well
Poll ends at .
Show threadGeraint

@simon_brooke I can't see any reason why SNP would want a coalition now. They can get any bill or budget through with the support of any one other party, so it should be straightforward for them to continue to govern as a minority government.

If they can't come up with a budget that one of SGP, LD or Lab can support, then that would be a surprise.

May 11 at 9:41amWeb
Show threadSimon Brooke6d ago

@drgeraint this is true. But they won't get an #IndyRef2 that way. The reason I think the SNP *should* bring #ScottishLabour into government is that by throwing a few plums to them in terms of ministerial jobs they could get serious pressure applied to #Westminster to get the referendum agreed.

Mind you, I suspect #Swinney doesn't really want another indyref anyway, and that that is what was behind the stupid 'only SNP votes count' nonsense.

#ScotPol

Show threadGeraint6d ago
@simon_brooke I would imagine that he will be looking to run the next UK General Election as a mandate for indyref2. I can't see him seriously pushing for it before then, although he will have to give the appearance of trying.
Show threadSimon Brooke6d ago

@drgeraint and how is that going to help? The #SNP won just NINE seats under #Swinney's leadership at the last #Westminster election; it will very likely lose two of those this summer in by-elections; and unless he plays an absolute blinder he'll lose a couple more at the 2029 election, to #ReformUKLtd.

How's he going to achieve anything with five MPs? They're lost in the noise.

#ScotPol

Show threadGeraint6d ago

@simon_brooke I'd expect fewer Scottish Labour MPs next time, and it remains to be seen who will lead the SNP into that next election.

If Farage still looks like a contender for PM at the next UK General Election, then I could well imagine the SNP wanting to use that election as a battle for indyref.

I have never expected that Swinney would be the person to get a new referendum. He was brought back to steady the SNP ship after their troubles; not to drive the independence campaign forward.

Show threadSimon Brooke6d ago

@drgeraint we could all imagine the #SNP WANTING that, but wanting isn't the same as winning, and a triumphant #ReformUKLtd government wouldn't pay a blind bit of notice anyway.

This is a 'kicking the can down the road towards the oncoming tanks' strategy.

#ScotPol

Show threadGeraint6d ago
Yes, unfortunately lots of can-kicking.
Show threadSimon Brooke6d ago

@drgeraint the question #Sarwar really needs to ask himself is, does he want to be leader of a fading and increasingly irrelevant minor party in a devolved province, or would he rather be First Minister of an independent country?

That really is the choice. The #SNP is only held together by the issue of #ScottishIndependence — once that is won, their coalition will fall apart. There is a real opportunity there for a party of the centre left to win power and make change. Dare he?

#ScotPol

Show threadHaving internet break6d ago
@simon_brooke @drgeraint
The greens would eat labour for breakfast in an Indy Scotland
Show threadSimon Brooke6d ago
@spytfyre @drgeraint well, I hope so!
Show threadHaving internet break6d ago
@simon_brooke @drgeraint
They can't bring better together in
Show threadChitchat5d ago

@simon_brooke @drgeraint

What makes you think the labour party would listen to 'Scottish' labour MSPs?

And labour won't still be in power after the next UK general election

Show threadSimon Brooke5d ago

@Cyclist @drgeraint which is why any deal about #IndyRef2 has to be done now.

In 2029, the Nazis will take power in the UK, just 97 years after they took power in Germany. If Scotland isn't out by then, Scotland isn't getting out.

#ScottishIndependence

Show threadGeraint5d ago
@simon_brooke @Cyclist Realistically, I don't think there is any possibility of getting indyref2 in that time. What we can do, is increase its likelihood in a future parliament and avoid letting Farage get power by pushing hard for PR at Westminster before the next general election. For the first time in a long time, FPTP does not now work in favour of Labour, who have the ability to change the electoral system. We could get PR before 2029, after which Westminster could be more amenable.
Show threadSimon Brooke5d ago

@drgeraint @Cyclist First Past the Post no longer works in favour of either of the two legacy parties, which are currently the two largest parties in #Westminster. Which is why you would think it would be a complete no brainer to legislate for full #ProportionalRepresentation, right now, before the summer recess.

I would bet you anything you like that it won't happen, and that #ReformUKLtd will win a 'landslide' in 2029 on the votes of 20% of the registered electorate.

https://www.journeyman.cc/blog/posts-output/2024-07-06-The-election-and-after/

The election, and after

The first thing to say about the 2024 General Election result is this: Labour lost, and lost badly. They lost, in fact, half a million votes compared to their 2019 result; they lost three million votes when compared to their 2017 result. They also failed to win anything remotely resembling a majority of the popular vote.

The Fool on the Hill