JA WestenbergApr 23

We’ve gone from "this is too ghoulish to exist" in 2003 to "this is the new wisdom-of-crowds infrastructure" in 2026. And it's a symptom of how we, all of us, are coming apart.

Prediction markets are, I think, the clearest single sign that our civilisation has entered a late and decadent stage.

https://www.joanwestenberg.com/why-prediction-markets-are-a-sure-sign-that-our-civilisation-is-in-decay/

Why prediction markets are a sure sign that our civilisation is in decay

Prediction markets are the clearest single sign our civilisation has entered a late and decadent stage. The reason isn't that they're new or sinister. It's that the case for them is defensible, the technology works, the outputs are useful, but the long-term effect is corrosive anyway.

Westenberg.
Show threadf*cking b*tch club

@Daojoan Whew!

“….the [prediction] market is information to a would-be assassin about how much financial upside exists in acting on their impulse; it’s a relatively clean way for a hostile state actor to hedge a covert operation. A sovereign that wants a rival head of state dead can, in principle, acquire a large position on a thinly traded market, wait for someone to commit the act, and pay for the operation with the winnings.”

#predictionmarkets

Apr 23 at 11:27amWeb