Mastodawn

Reed Mideke Mar 13

dafuq "Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes … The reason, multiple sources said, was administration officials believed closing the strait would hurt Iran more than the US — a view that was bolstered by Iran’s empty threats to act in the strait after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer"

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/hormuz-trump-administration-underestimated-iran

Trump administration underestimated Iran war’s impact on Strait of Hormuz

The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

CNN

Reed Mideke Mar 13

I mean, it was only one of the major risks included in every discussion of war with Iran since the 70s, who could have seen that coming?! Even if they thought it was unlikely, it was surely well within the range of possibilities, and you'd have to be an idiot to assume Iran would respond the same to an existential threat as they did to what was telegraphed as a limited action against the nuclear program

Reed Mideke Mar 17

Donald: "We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are" - I dunno man, if it's still "very easy" for them to blow up ships with drones, mines or missiles, maybe you have not actually destroyed 100% of their military capability
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/trump-wants-countries-help-reopen-strait-hormuz-rcna263537

Trump wants other countries to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That might not be so easy.

U.S. allies and rivals responded cautiously after President Donald Trump said they should police the Strait of Hormuz, as Iranian threats to strike shipping on the vital trade route continue to cause chaos in global markets.“Many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships” to secure the shipping route, he posted Saturday on Truth Social, listing China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and “others” among the nations he hoped would provide support.“The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well.

NBC News

Reed Mideke Mar 17

The second part is not wrong of course. Ukraine has wreaked havoc on Russia's fleet from hundreds miles away, and the tens of miles Iran would need to cover would be far easier

Reed Mideke Mar 17

Meanwhile, footage has begun to appear of pro-Iran forces in Iraq using (likely Russian-origin) FPVs. The Russians produce thousands per day, so it would be quite easy for them to provide enough to make things very, very unpleasant for any American or allied interests in Iraq or other places where Iran has a substantial network

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-03-16-2026#0000019c-f9bd-dac0-ab9f-ffff363e0000

Israel-Hezbollah fighting drives over 1 million Lebanese from their homes

U.S. President Donald Trump said that he demanded several countries send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, as Iranian strikes continued on Gulf countries.

AP News

Reed Mideke Mar 17

Trouble with Trump's "I can end it whenever it choose" line: US and Israeli air power can plausibly destroy Iran's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs. They can also probably render much of Iran's conventional forces incapable of significant operations. But no amount of bombing is going to stop small groups using drones and IEDs. If you remember the Beirut bombings in the 80s and the Iraq insurgency, and add drones on top of that… well, the enemy gets a vote

Reed Mideke Mar 17

So, about that little laundry fire on the USS Ford: "The fire, according to two officials, began in the vent of a dryer in the ship’s laundry facilities and quickly spread. Sailors battled the blaze for more than 30 hours, officials and sailors said"

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/us/politics/uss-ford-fire-iran-venezuela.html?unlocked_article_code=1.T1A.BPIS.4Wp34Wr2AV7m&smid=url-share

#GiftArticle #GiftLink

Fire on the U.S. Aircraft Carrier Gerald R. Ford Raged for Hours, Sailors Say

The Ford is now entering its 10th month of deployment after arriving in the Middle East from the Caribbean.

The New York Times

Reed Mideke Mar 18

"Britain’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, attended the final talks between the US and Iran and judged that the offer made by Tehran on its nuclear programme was significant enough to prevent a rush to war"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/uk-security-adviser-attended-us-iran-talks-and-judged-deal-was-within-reach

UK security adviser ‘attended’ US-Iran talks and judged deal was within reach

Exclusive: Jonathan Powell thought Tehran’s ‘surprising’ offer on its nuclear programme could prevent rush to war, sources say

The Guardian

Reed Mideke Mar 18

"Israeli officials told U.S. counterparts they hope for an uprising even though it would lead to a massacre, according to a State Department cable reviewed by The Post"

https://wapo.st/4bgy0mM

#GiftArticle #GiftLink

Israel urges Iranians to revolt but privately assesses they’ll be ‘slaughtered’

Israeli officials told U.S. counterparts they hope for an uprising even though it would lead to a massacre, according to a State Department cable reviewed by The Post.

The Washington Post

Reed Mideke Mar 19

LOL

(axios claims the the Israeli strike was approved by the US, but it's a clown show no matter which version is true https://www.axios.com/2026/03/19/iran-war-trump-israel-strike-gas)

Reed Mideke Mar 19

"We’re over here just grinding away on banger memes, dude" - I'm sure American families everywhere will be comforted by the fact their loved ones died for banger memes

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/18/white-house-iran-game-online-00834373

Inside the White House plan to sell the Iran war online

The administration is bucking decades of decorum by depicting the Iran war as a violent video game.

Politico

Reed Mideke Mar 22

Iranian diaspora unsurprisingly have varied reactions to Trump's war
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/mar/21/iranian-americans-us-israel-iran-war

Little joy to be found among Iranian Americans over the war and Iran’s future: ‘I have righteous anger’

Iranians in the diaspora are divided as Friday rang in Persian new year and the war on their homeland reached three-week mark

The Guardian

Reed Mideke Mar 22

Claimed location of that Persian numbers station to… "a shortwave transmission facility within a US military base in Böblingen, 15 km southwest of Stuttgart, Germany - in the forest between Panzer Kaserne and Patch Barracks, inside a restricted area marked as a training field" - consistent with the report that Iran tried to jam it. Unclear whether it's transmitting anything meaningful or just a psyop

https://priyom.org/number-stations/other/v32

V32 › Priyom.org

Reed Mideke Mar 22

Jeffery Lewis' Middlebury gang concludes a reported drone strike on a residential area in Bahrain was likely a failed US-operated Patriot intercept. Many similar incidents have happened with Russian/Soviet SAMs in Russia and to a lesser extent Ukraine

https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221525/analysis-of-patriot-incident-in-bahrain/

Analysis of Patriot Incident in Bahrain

Reed Mideke Mar 23

Ukrainian ex-CiC Valerii Zaluzhnyi doesn't come out and call Trump an idiot for the Iran war, but he certainly doesn't suggest any positive outcome
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/21/ukraine-war-tells-us-about-iran-conflict/

Reed Mideke Mar 25

Reuters on Netanyahu lobbying Trump to attack Iran immediately before the war. Unclear whether it was decisive, but "the last person to talk to Trump gets their way" phenomena has a long history
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-approved-iran-operation-after-netanyahu-argued-joint-killing-khamenei-2026-03-23/

Reed Mideke Mar 25

Luce: "The truth inside Donald Trump’s tornado of piffle is that he wants to get out of the mess he created"

https://www.ft.com/content/2656f791-c17c-4b44-8a1e-1892fef5374a

Trump’s Armageddon-Taco shuffle

One minute he threatens death and destruction, the next he says the US and Iran are engaged in negotiations

Financial Times

Reed Mideke Mar 25

"Iranian representatives have let the Trump administration know it does not want to re-enter negotiations with special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and would prefer to engage with Vice President JD Vance" - How good a Middle East envoy are you when the other party says they'd rather talk to JD Vance?

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-24-26

Trump says Vance and Rubio are participating in talks with Iran to end war

US President Donald Trump said that Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are leading negotiations with Iran, expressing optimism that a deal is in sight. Follow for the latest live news updates.

CNN

Reed Mideke Mar 25

Who could have predicted that repeated bolt-from-the-blue attacks while negotiations were supposedly ongoing would lead to this? 'Iranian officials have told the countries trying to mediate peace talks with the U.S. that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and "we don't want to be fooled again"'

https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/iran-war-trump-peace-talks-tehran-suspicious

Iran suspects Trump's peace talk push is another trick

"Trump has a hand open for a deal and the other is a fist waiting to punch you in the f***ing face."

Axios

Reed Mideke Mar 27

"[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran … Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on"

https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-messaging-white-house-divide

‘Just drinking the Kool-Aid’: Inside the White House divide on Iran

Senior aides describe a widening internal divide over a conflict the president has grown bored with — and a communications strategy some call embarrassing.

MS NOW

Reed Mideke Mar 29

Shot*: "No, we don't need (Ukraine's) help in drone defense. We know more about drones than anybody. We have the best drones in the world, actually"

Chaser: -1 AWACS and 5 tankers

https://www.twz.com/air/images-purportedly-show-e-3-sentry-totally-destroyed-from-iranian-strike

(not clear whether damage in this case was from missiles, drones or some combo)

* https://kyivindependent.com/trump-ukraine-drone-defenses/

Images Purportedly Show E-3 Sentry Totally Destroyed From Iranian Strike

A loss of an E-3 would be a major blow for the dwindling fleet of increasingly rickety airframes and would point to other capability and defensive gaps.

The War Zone

Reed Mideke Mar 29

Welp, small price to pay for protecting Donald's ego, I guess: "On Sunday Iran's IRGC-linked Fars news agency said a Shahed drone had struck the E-3 aircraft"

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyd07m7e1xo

Photos show heavily damaged US radar jet at Saudi base

US Central Command has not yet publicly commented on the incident.

Reed Mideke Mar 30

"To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people … Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options … I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily"- Kharg is 30-40 km from shore, a stretch for rotor FPVs but well within range of fixed wing strike drones like Molinya which Russia produces in vast quantities

https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5

Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’

US president tells the FT he is considering seizing strategic Kharg Island even as negotiations continue

Financial Times

Reed Mideke Mar 30

It's unclear whether Russia has provided assistance with tactical drones at scale, but if so, the US military is almost certainly unprepared for it, and the administration and public are likely unprepared for the sight of entire squads wiped out with their last moments on camera

Reed Mideke Mar 30

Long range drones like Shaheds take some infrastructure to produce at scale, but there is very little the US could do to stop Iran from making stuff like this. As long as they have a route to import components from China and a little cash to pay for them https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2026/01/15/8016293/

Cheap but dangerous: how Russia's plywood Molniya drone has become a big problem for Ukraine's defence forces

The Molniya (Lightning) is a simple, low-cost attack drone capable of operating dozens of kilometres deep into enemy territory. Russian Molniya drones are gradually pushing back what was until recently considered a relatively safe distance from the front lines.

Ukrainska Pravda

Reed Mideke Mar 30

Meanwhile "a source with knowledge of Iran’s oil accounting, who spoke to The Economist on condition of anonymity, confirms the country is currently exporting 2.4m-2.8m [b/d] of oil and petroleum products per, including 1.5m-1.8m b/d of crude. That is the same, if not more, than it did on average last year. It also sells at much higher prices" - Trump could mostly stop this by seizing Kharg, but he only gets oil if Iran decides to keep pumping

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/03/29/how-iran-is-making-a-mint-from-donald-trumps-war

How Iran is making a mint from Donald Trump’s war

Iran maintains oil exports of 2.4m-2.8m barrels daily despite war and sanctions, earning twice pre-conflict revenues as Gulf rivals slash output and prices surge.

The Economist

Reed Mideke Mar 30

NYT finds a school and sports hall were hit with US PrSM ballistic missiles at the start of the war
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/world/middleeast/us-precision-strike-missile-iran-lamerd.html?unlocked_article_code=1.XFA.wIvW.m2XCMt8F4wRY&smid=url-share

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New U.S. Missile Hit Iranian Sports Hall and School, Analysis Shows

The Pentagon used missiles untested in combat in a deadly attack that struck civilian sites near a military compound on Feb. 28, according to visual evidence examined by The Times and weapons experts.

The New York Times

Reed Mideke Apr 2

So much winning!

Reed Mideke Apr 2

"this war was initially planned to last days, or at most a few weeks" - No plan for how it ends but it'll be quick! Also, this is fine, what could possibly go wrong "The Pentagon’s firing of two dozen admirals and generals over the past year has made some wary of challenging the president’s ambitions"

https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/trump-iran-war-ground-troops/686640/?gift=FEWAoWcq6grjKzrSTXJ8Nm7RZZdy8vMkK8Dx3eAlD1I&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

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U.S. Troops Could Soon Be on the Ground in Iran

The military is waiting for the president’s go-ahead for high-risk ground operations in Iran.

The Atlantic

Reed Mideke Apr 3

This message will not be well received by those who need to hear it, but I doubt you'll find many others who disagree "You have to be serious. When you want to be serious, you don't say the opposite every day of what you said the day before. And perhaps you shouldn't talk every day"

https://www.france24.com/en/macron-says-unrealistic-open-hormuz-strait-force-urges-trump-be-serious

Macron says 'unrealistic' to open Hormuz Strait by force, urges Trump to 'be serious'

French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said it would be unrealistic to launch a military operation to force open the Strait of Hormuz after US President Donald Trump challenged allies to work towards reopening it. In unusually strong criticism, Macron accused Trump of constantly contradicting himself on the Iran war and of undermining faith in the NATO military alliance.

FRANCE 24

Reed Mideke Apr 3

"Key Trump officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, were surprised by the barrage of retaliatory attacks Tehran launched against U.S. and Israeli targets across the region … The response shattered the assumption that Tehran would confine itself to performative retaliation" - Absolute buffoons, killed a countries leader and a bunch of top officials, and are then shocked they treat it like an existential fight

https://time.com/article/2026/04/02/trump-iran-off-ramp/

Inside Trump's Search for a Way Out of the Iran War

Facing political backlash, global economic shock, and the looming midterms, the President still doesn't want to get out of Iran without declaring victory.

Time

Reed Mideke Apr 3

Like, if you asked them how the US should respond to a similar attack, it sure as fuck wouldn't be "some symbolic counter strikes and then give the attacker whatever they want" but they are completely unable to understand that others would feel the same way. Americans are big strong patriotic war fighters and everyone else are NPCs (this also shows up in their Ukraine policy)

Reed Mideke Apr 4

We're going to leave NATO because they won't help us open the strait and also

Reed Mideke 4d ago

"The Ukrainian assessment said that the exchange of satellite imagery was being organised through ‌a permanent communications ⁠channel used by Russia and Iran and could also be facilitated by Russian military spies stationed in Tehran" and implies they know the specific targets Russian satellites were tasked to observe 🤨
Seems a thing you wouldn't normally brag about, though I suppose they might see convincing the US as worth it

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-supplies-iran-with-cyber-support-spy-imagery-hone-attacks-ukraine-says-2026-04-07/

Reed Mideke 4d ago

So, he TACO'd out for 2 weeks and he and his supporters will now no doubt claim the genocidal threats were what got the deal done… admittedly still better that some of the alternatives but not great!

Also, what do you think the odds are someone made some great oil futures trades from just before the threat and ceasefire announcement?

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-07-2026

US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire

Iran says it has accepted a two-week ceasefire in the war, and will negotiate with the United States in Islamabad beginning Friday. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he’s pulling back on his threats to widen attacks.

AP News

Reed Mideke 4d ago

"Both times in the middle of negotiations a war has started" - Just, you know, started by itself, not as a result of any particular action by any particular parties 🙄

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt?post=asset%3A25a64be9-e86b-4846-8052-e5e49ae736df#post

Reed Mideke 4d ago

Who could have predicted* this ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://mastodon.social/@Vittoria/116369836951307150

* https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/116366282186034457

Reed Mideke 3d ago

Or this*? "I understand the questions about the president’s rhetoric, but what the president cares most about is results, and in fact, his very tough rhetoric and his tough negotiating style is what has led to the result that you are all witnessing today"

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/world/live-news/iran-war-trump-us-ceasefire?post-id=cmnqcj1tr000b3b6tdd7f2jjh

* https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/116366282186034457

White House says Iran war ceasefire will continue if Strait of Hormuz is open

As a fragile ceasefire takes effect, the White House said Iran has given assurances that it is allowing ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, despite reports that Tehran has once again closed it due to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. Follow for live news updates.

CNN

Reed Mideke 3d ago

FT reports Trump was itching for a deal: "For weeks the Trump administration was leaning on Islamabad to convince the Iranians to agree a pause in fighting … Trump, worried about surging oil prices and surprised by a resilient Iranian regime, was eager for a ceasefire since at least his first threat on March 21 to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants"

https://www.ft.com/content/249b9255-c448-492b-88bf-098d97de4159

White House pushed Pakistan to broker temporary Iran ceasefire

Idea for pause in fighting originated from Donald Trump’s team even as he escalated threats against Iran

Financial Times

Reed Mideke 3d ago

NYT doesn't, but claims the last threat almost derailed it "… talks had privately been progressing and Iran’s supreme leader had appeared to signal an approval to move forward with negotiations … Iranian leaders, already furious about Mr. Trump’s deadline to blow up power plants, and a wave of attacks on critical infrastructure such as railroads, bridges and industrial plants, decided to call it quits" and credits China an Pakistan with salvaging it

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/us/politics/chaos-cease-fire-iran.html

Trump Finds Himself With Fragile Iran Cease-Fire After the Scramble to Make a Deal

After careening from one diplomatic extreme to another, President Trump finds himself with a fragile deal that is already showing signs of fraying.

The New York Times

Very a convincing case from NYT that CENTCOM's denial of a PrSM strike on the school and sports hall in Lamerd was a lie

(unsurprising, the claim it was an Iranian cruise missile didn't make much sense or match the evidence)

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/world/middleeast/iran-us-missle-strike-civilians-lamerd.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Z1A.TLSt.iWTiooUAt8v-&smid=url-share

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New Evidence Further Implicates U.S. Missiles in Strikes That Killed 21 Civilians in Iran

Additional images and video build on an earlier analysis, which the Pentagon has disputed, showing Precision Strike Missiles, or PrSMs, hit a sports hall and residential areas in the Iranian city of Lamerd.

The New York Times

Reed Mideke 11m ago

"Trump says it will take a little while for US to blockade the Strait of Hormuz" - Well, luckily for Donald, Iran has volunteered to hold it down in the meantime!

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-it-will-take-little-while-us-blockade-strait-hormuz-2026-04-12/

Ben Brockert 1d ago

@reedmideke I don't understand why they are bothering to disavow. They've generally shown no expectation of ever owing anyone compensation, nor caring about murdering kids. And the style of the weapon is extremely distinctive.