While Trump continues to throw shit at the wall* trying to calm markets, Iran seems to have a coherent theory of victory: Hang on and drive up the economic cost until Trump gives up
Not that it will necessarily succeed, but using air power alone to stop them from hitting oil infrastructure and ships in the Straits of Hormuz seems like a pretty tall order
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/09/middleeast/iran-long-war-kamal-kharazi-interview-intl
A top Iranian official has warned that the government is prepared for a long war with the US and signaled that it is willing to continue attacking Gulf countries in an effort to persuade them to convince President Donald Trump to step back from the conflict.
Ignatius reports some senior Israeli officials (not Bibi) are getting twitchy about the lack of clear exit strategy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/03/09/israel-us-iran-war-trump-netanyahu-endgame/
Energy secretary Chris Wright posts the Navy escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz: "Crude prices tumbled below $80 a barrel on Wright’s announcement before jumping again after it was deleted" - Incompetence or market manipulation? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
White House says didn't happen but "will absolutely utilize if and when necessary"
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/10/oil-hormuz-iran-tanker-wright-00821041
Meanwhile, Navy says industry has been begging for escort, and also, hell no
The U.S. Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The head of Iraq’s ports company said that 38 crew members of two foreign oil tankers were rescued after an Iranian attack set them ablaze in Iraq’s territorial waters in the Gulf. Also, three vessels were hit by projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UK’s maritime agency. Follow for live news updates.
The mysterious Persian-language transmission began about 12 hours after the start of the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran. It was jammed five days later. Is it a coded message for US agents in Iran? Iranian sleeper cells? Israeli operatives? That’s what experts are trying to decipher.
dafuq "Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes … The reason, multiple sources said, was administration officials believed closing the strait would hurt Iran more than the US — a view that was bolstered by Iran’s empty threats to act in the strait after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer"
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/hormuz-trump-administration-underestimated-iran
The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
Donald: "We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are" - I dunno man, if it's still "very easy" for them to blow up ships with drones, mines or missiles, maybe you have not actually destroyed 100% of their military capability
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/trump-wants-countries-help-reopen-strait-hormuz-rcna263537
U.S. allies and rivals responded cautiously after President Donald Trump said they should police the Strait of Hormuz, as Iranian threats to strike shipping on the vital trade route continue to cause chaos in global markets.“Many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships” to secure the shipping route, he posted Saturday on Truth Social, listing China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and “others” among the nations he hoped would provide support.“The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well.
Meanwhile, footage has begun to appear of pro-Iran forces in Iraq using (likely Russian-origin) FPVs. The Russians produce thousands per day, so it would be quite easy for them to provide enough to make things very, very unpleasant for any American or allied interests in Iraq or other places where Iran has a substantial network
https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-03-16-2026#0000019c-f9bd-dac0-ab9f-ffff363e0000
So, about that little laundry fire on the USS Ford: "The fire, according to two officials, began in the vent of a dryer in the ship’s laundry facilities and quickly spread. Sailors battled the blaze for more than 30 hours, officials and sailors said"
"Britain’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, attended the final talks between the US and Iran and judged that the offer made by Tehran on its nuclear programme was significant enough to prevent a rush to war"
"Israeli officials told U.S. counterparts they hope for an uprising even though it would lead to a massacre, according to a State Department cable reviewed by The Post"
LOL
(axios claims the the Israeli strike was approved by the US, but it's a clown show no matter which version is true https://www.axios.com/2026/03/19/iran-war-trump-israel-strike-gas)
"We’re over here just grinding away on banger memes, dude" - I'm sure American families everywhere will be comforted by the fact their loved ones died for banger memes
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/18/white-house-iran-game-online-00834373
Claimed location of that Persian numbers station to… "a shortwave transmission facility within a US military base in Böblingen, 15 km southwest of Stuttgart, Germany - in the forest between Panzer Kaserne and Patch Barracks, inside a restricted area marked as a training field" - consistent with the report that Iran tried to jam it. Unclear whether it's transmitting anything meaningful or just a psyop
Jeffery Lewis' Middlebury gang concludes a reported drone strike on a residential area in Bahrain was likely a failed US-operated Patriot intercept. Many similar incidents have happened with Russian/Soviet SAMs in Russia and to a lesser extent Ukraine
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221525/analysis-of-patriot-incident-in-bahrain/
Luce: "The truth inside Donald Trump’s tornado of piffle is that he wants to get out of the mess he created"
https://www.ft.com/content/2656f791-c17c-4b44-8a1e-1892fef5374a
"Iranian representatives have let the Trump administration know it does not want to re-enter negotiations with special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and would prefer to engage with Vice President JD Vance" - How good a Middle East envoy are you when the other party says they'd rather talk to JD Vance?
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-24-26
Who could have predicted that repeated bolt-from-the-blue attacks while negotiations were supposedly ongoing would lead to this? 'Iranian officials have told the countries trying to mediate peace talks with the U.S. that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and "we don't want to be fooled again"'
https://www.axios.com/2026/03/25/iran-war-trump-peace-talks-tehran-suspicious
"[Trump] is getting a little bored with Iran … Not that he regrets it or something — he’s just bored and wants to move on"
https://www.ms.now/news/trump-iran-war-messaging-white-house-divide
Shot*: "No, we don't need (Ukraine's) help in drone defense. We know more about drones than anybody. We have the best drones in the world, actually"
Chaser: -1 AWACS and 5 tankers
https://www.twz.com/air/images-purportedly-show-e-3-sentry-totally-destroyed-from-iranian-strike
(not clear whether damage in this case was from missiles, drones or some combo)
Welp, small price to pay for protecting Donald's ego, I guess: "On Sunday Iran's IRGC-linked Fars news agency said a Shahed drone had struck the E-3 aircraft"
"To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people … Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options … I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily"- Kharg is 30-40 km from shore, a stretch for rotor FPVs but well within range of fixed wing strike drones like Molinya which Russia produces in vast quantities
https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5
The Molniya (Lightning) is a simple, low-cost attack drone capable of operating dozens of kilometres deep into enemy territory. Russian Molniya drones are gradually pushing back what was until recently considered a relatively safe distance from the front lines.
Meanwhile "a source with knowledge of Iran’s oil accounting, who spoke to The Economist on condition of anonymity, confirms the country is currently exporting 2.4m-2.8m [b/d] of oil and petroleum products per, including 1.5m-1.8m b/d of crude. That is the same, if not more, than it did on average last year. It also sells at much higher prices" - Trump could mostly stop this by seizing Kharg, but he only gets oil if Iran decides to keep pumping
NYT finds a school and sports hall were hit with US PrSM ballistic missiles at the start of the war
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/29/world/middleeast/us-precision-strike-missile-iran-lamerd.html?unlocked_article_code=1.XFA.wIvW.m2XCMt8F4wRY&smid=url-share
"this war was initially planned to last days, or at most a few weeks" - No plan for how it ends but it'll be quick! Also, this is fine, what could possibly go wrong "The Pentagon’s firing of two dozen admirals and generals over the past year has made some wary of challenging the president’s ambitions"
This message will not be well received by those who need to hear it, but I doubt you'll find many others who disagree "You have to be serious. When you want to be serious, you don't say the opposite every day of what you said the day before. And perhaps you shouldn't talk every day"
https://www.france24.com/en/macron-says-unrealistic-open-hormuz-strait-force-urges-trump-be-serious
French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said it would be unrealistic to launch a military operation to force open the Strait of Hormuz after US President Donald Trump challenged allies to work towards reopening it. In unusually strong criticism, Macron accused Trump of constantly contradicting himself on the Iran war and of undermining faith in the NATO military alliance.
"Key Trump officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, were surprised by the barrage of retaliatory attacks Tehran launched against U.S. and Israeli targets across the region … The response shattered the assumption that Tehran would confine itself to performative retaliation" - Absolute buffoons, killed a countries leader and a bunch of top officials, and are then shocked they treat it like an existential fight
"The Ukrainian assessment said that the exchange of satellite imagery was being organised through a permanent communications channel used by Russia and Iran and could also be facilitated by Russian military spies stationed in Tehran" and implies they know the specific targets Russian satellites were tasked to observe 🤨
Seems a thing you wouldn't normally brag about, though I suppose they might see convincing the US as worth it
So, he TACO'd out for 2 weeks and he and his supporters will now no doubt claim the genocidal threats were what got the deal done… admittedly still better that some of the alternatives but not great!
Also, what do you think the odds are someone made some great oil futures trades from just before the threat and ceasefire announcement?
"Both times in the middle of negotiations a war has started" - Just, you know, started by itself, not as a result of any particular action by any particular parties 🙄
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt?post=asset%3A25a64be9-e86b-4846-8052-e5e49ae736df#post
Who could have predicted* this ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Or this*? "I understand the questions about the president’s rhetoric, but what the president cares most about is results, and in fact, his very tough rhetoric and his tough negotiating style is what has led to the result that you are all witnessing today"
As a fragile ceasefire takes effect, the White House said Iran has given assurances that it is allowing ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, despite reports that Tehran has once again closed it due to Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. Follow for live news updates.
FT reports Trump was itching for a deal: "For weeks the Trump administration was leaning on Islamabad to convince the Iranians to agree a pause in fighting … Trump, worried about surging oil prices and surprised by a resilient Iranian regime, was eager for a ceasefire since at least his first threat on March 21 to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants"
https://www.ft.com/content/249b9255-c448-492b-88bf-098d97de4159
NYT doesn't, but claims the last threat almost derailed it "… talks had privately been progressing and Iran’s supreme leader had appeared to signal an approval to move forward with negotiations … Iranian leaders, already furious about Mr. Trump’s deadline to blow up power plants, and a wave of attacks on critical infrastructure such as railroads, bridges and industrial plants, decided to call it quits" and credits China an Pakistan with salvaging it
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/us/politics/chaos-cease-fire-iran.html
Very a convincing case from NYT that CENTCOM's denial of a PrSM strike on the school and sports hall in Lamerd was a lie
(unsurprising, the claim it was an Iranian cruise missile didn't make much sense or match the evidence)
Additional images and video build on an earlier analysis, which the Pentagon has disputed, showing Precision Strike Missiles, or PrSMs, hit a sports hall and residential areas in the Iranian city of Lamerd.
"Trump says it will take a little while for US to blockade the Strait of Hormuz" - Well, luckily for Donald, Iran has volunteered to hold it down in the meantime!
Jeffrey Lewis lays out why he thinks the Lamerd strike was PrSM
(I don't think there's any reason to doubt, but I wonder if one the SAMs Iran operates would be a more plausible candidate than the cruise missile CENTCOM claimed, both for appearance and proximity fragmentation warhead)
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221623/it-really-looks-like-a-prsm/
Reed Mideke
Ben Brockert