Reed MidekeNYT live coverage of one man's ongoing quest for the Nobel Peace Prize
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/02/28/world/iran-strikes-trump?unlocked_article_code=1.PlA.GxET.WCyiQFiRZLKK&smid=url-share
There's comments going around about how Trump started the war to boost GOP chances in the midterms (and indeed, he himself has a long record of accusing others* of that kind if thing) but one problem with that theory is that it's really not popular. Of course, that could change if it turns out to be wildly successful, but at the moment there's little reason to think he's gonna git a big rally around the flag
Even among people who are in principle on board with the idea of regime change in Iran, this is pretty obviously a war of choice with no clear end game. As FT puts it "The US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq in 2001 and 2003 underlined the dangers of “regime change” wars. But those operations look meticulously planned, compared to the current US and Israeli assault on Iran"
https://www.ft.com/content/437130e7-ed4e-4919-8bf3-ac38c2eed6af
Trump has suggested an outcome like Venezuela, but it's hard to see getting there, and not clear whether the public would view that as much of a success. Any, welcome to the 4-5 week SMO, America!
For those skeptical of US friendly fire losses https://www.twz.com/air/tragic-friendly-fire-incidents-are-nothing-new-in-modern-air-warfare
Friendly-Fire Incidents Are Nothing New In Modern Air Warfare
The loss of three F-15Es to friendly fire today is far from the first time similar combat accidents have happened in the post Cold War era. The loss of three F-15Es to friendly fire today is far from the first time similar combat accidents have happened in the post Cold War era.
Now reported that one Kuwaiti F-18 downed those US F-15s. AAM rather than Patriot would explain the high survival rate of the crews
So apparently the CIA is plotting a Kurdish uprising in western Iran. Which to be fair, is 1000% more coherent than anything the rest of the administration has suggested. A self-governing Kurdish enclave could be a fairly good outcome for them, and has relatively successful precedent in Iraq and Syria. But…
https://www.itv.com/news/2026-03-03/united-states-seeking-an-armed-uprising-inside-iran
1) It doesn't obviously support an end game for the war as a whole, aside from the suggestion it could provide a diversion to support a broader uprising
2) Turkey and the Iraqi central government are unlikely to be on board, and Turkey in particular has a history of intervening militarily
3) The US, and Trump in particular have a rather long history of throwing Kurds under the bus when priorities change
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran
CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say
The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran and the Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support, multiple people familiar with the talks told CNN.
NYT catalogues Iranian hits on US communication infrastructure. Unlikely to change the big picture, but they're not just lobbing Shaheds at luxury hotels
Arash Azizi on the Kurdish insurgency plan, the groups involved (notably heavy on nominally left-wing factions), and highlighting the extremely obvious risk of things descending into sectarian civil war. Good thing that has never been a problem in the middle east before!
Also notes Iran is already carrying out preemptive strikes in Iraqi Kurdish territory
As this AP story points out, there is also substantial risk of spillover into Iraq, given the large presence of Iran-friendly groups there
https://apnews.com/article/kurdish-dissident-groups-iran-war-iraq-f76efe372becb7d80d3ed026791e67ba
Kurdish dissident groups say they are on standby to join fight against Iran
Kurdish Iranian dissident groups based in northern Iraq are preparing for a potential cross-border military operation in Iran, and the U.S. has asked Iraqi Kurds to support them, Kurdish officials have told The Associated Press. Kurdish party leaders have also discussed the Iran crisis with President Donald Trump, according to Iraqi Kurdish officials. One official says Trump has asked them to open the border and back the groups militarily. Iraqi Kurdish leaders fear Iranian retaliation. Recent drone and missile strikes have already hit the region, damaging homes, and disrupting electricity. Iraq also reinforces the border and the Iraqi government has vowed to stop infiltrations.
Israel's take on the end game: "If we can have a coup, great. If we can have people on the streets, great. If we can have a civil war, great. Israel couldn’t care less about the future . . . [or] the stability of Iran" - Which even leaving aside disregard for millions of human lives seems short sighted. The impacts of Iran becoming a failed state would extend far beyond its borders, likely for decades
https://www.ft.com/content/dd070ee7-7021-4f90-86ec-690fe6aa34e6
The Trump admin has also at times expressed the "we'll smash up their weapons and don't care what happens next" theory which really seems like a hell of take coming on the heals of 9/11 and the 20+ years to GWOT that was so deeply connected with things festering in failed states
OK, they're not exactly friends, but you'd think Iran would have higher priority targets than Azerbaijan these days.
I'd say someone got their coordinates mixed up, but hitting a major airport by chance would be incredibly bad luck 🤔
I Can't Believe It's Not Regime Change™
"I’m not going through this to end up with another Khamenei. I want to be involved in the selection. They can select, but we have to make sure it’s somebody that’s reasonable to the United States"
The most unpopular US war in the Middle East (so far)
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-us-iran-attack-2026-03-06
Who could have predicted that an all-out war in the Persian Gulf would affect gasoline prices?!
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/05/iran-energy-prices-trump-wiles-00813710
Sean Parnell wants you to know that on the 6th day of America's SMO in Iran, everything is going according to plan
https://xcancel.com/SeanParnellASW/status/2030067692477239807
Totally unsurprising Russia is supplying Iran with intel (would be surprising if they weren't!) and geopolitically symmetrical with the west in Ukraine (though likely less effective in practice), so I wouldn't really expect a big reaction from Washington, but… can you imagine the shitstorm if the Obama or Biden admin had said "it does not really matter?"
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reportedly-provides-iran-intelligence/
On the less effective part: Ukraine has had very good missile warnings from the first moments of the war, presumably in a large part thanks to Western assets, whereas in Iran, the initial strikes appear to have been a total surprise. Allies have also almost continuously flown ISR assets near Ukrainian airspace, which Russia has far less capability to do for Iran
Russia could cover quite a bit including a lot of area around Tehran flying in international airspace over the Caspian sea, similar to the British Rivet Joint and US drone flights near Crimea, but I haven't seen any reports that they are
Cycling through the various purported goals, we've reached "There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!"
"In conversations with their US counterparts, Arab and European officials say they haven’t detected what exactly Trump’s endgame looks like, or if it exists at all"
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/07/politics/donald-trump-iran-war-endgame-demands
Backing up much earlier reporting* Belingcat finds additional evidence the Minab girls schools strike was US
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/03/08/video-shows-us-tomahawk-missile-strike-next-to-girls-school-in-iran/
* NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/world/middleeast/iran-school-us-strikes-naval-base.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Q1A.iDYk.Q91DlPE9JfKc&smid=url-share (email-walled #GiftLink)
NPR https://www.npr.org/2026/03/04/nx-s1-5735801/satellite-imagery-shows-strike-that-destroyed-iranian-school-was-more-extensive-than-first-reported
Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-investigation-points-likely-us-responsibility-iran-school-strike-sources-say-2026-03-06/
BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yqqyly9n0o
Video Shows US Tomahawk Missile Strike Next to Girls’ School in Iran - bellingcat
New video footage shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility in Minab, Iran, on Feb 28, showing for the first time that the US struck the area. The footage, released by Mehr News and geolocated by Bellingcat, also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school […]
Trump 'then said that Iran “also has some Tomahawks” and he didn’t rule out that they struck the school'
Well that would certainly be big if true! I suppose we are overdue for an Iran / Contra reboot
It also seems kinda absurd the US officials leaking on background are sticking to the "likely" line. While the investigation into the details may be ongoing, one would expect all the targets for pre-programmed munitions like Tomahawk to recorded and (absent a deliberate coverup involving a bunch of people) relatively easy to retrieve
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-iran-war-bombing-girls-school-assessment/
United States was "likely" responsible for bombing of girls' school in Iran, per early U.S. assessment
The preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment suggests that the U.S. is "likely" responsible for the bombing of the girls' school in Iran on Feb. 28.
While Trump continues to throw shit at the wall* trying to calm markets, Iran seems to have a coherent theory of victory: Hang on and drive up the economic cost until Trump gives up
Not that it will necessarily succeed, but using air power alone to stop them from hitting oil infrastructure and ships in the Straits of Hormuz seems like a pretty tall order
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/09/middleeast/iran-long-war-kamal-kharazi-interview-intl
Exclusive: Iran is ready for a long war with the US and only economic pain will end it, senior official tells CNN
A top Iranian official has warned that the government is prepared for a long war with the US and signaled that it is willing to continue attacking Gulf countries in an effort to persuade them to convince President Donald Trump to step back from the conflict.
Ignatius reports some senior Israeli officials (not Bibi) are getting twitchy about the lack of clear exit strategy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/03/09/israel-us-iran-war-trump-netanyahu-endgame/
Energy secretary Chris Wright posts the Navy escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz: "Crude prices tumbled below $80 a barrel on Wright’s announcement before jumping again after it was deleted" - Incompetence or market manipulation? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
White House says didn't happen but "will absolutely utilize if and when necessary"
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/10/oil-hormuz-iran-tanker-wright-00821041
Meanwhile, Navy says industry has been begging for escort, and also, hell no
US Navy tells shipping industry Hormuz escorts not possible for now
The U.S. Navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the war on Iran, saying the risk of attacks is too high for now, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Just gonna put this on the shelf to age: "Let me say we’ve won. You know, you never like to say too early you won. We won. We won, in the first hour it was over, but we won" https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-11-26?post-id=cmmmjb4ya00003b6tke8h8fhn
Strait of Hormuz in crosshairs of Iran conflict as attacks on ships escalate
The head of Iraq’s ports company said that 38 crew members of two foreign oil tankers were rescued after an Iranian attack set them ablaze in Iraq’s territorial waters in the Gulf. Also, three vessels were hit by projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz, according to the UK’s maritime agency. Follow for live news updates.
Story on the recently appeared Persian numbers station
https://www.rferl.org/a/mystery-numbers-station-persian-signal-iran-war/33700659.html
https://www.rferl.org/a/mystery-numbers-station-persian-signal-iran-war/33700659.html
A Mysterious Signal Transfixes Radio Sleuths -- And Intelligence Experts
The mysterious Persian-language transmission began about 12 hours after the start of the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran. It was jammed five days later. Is it a coded message for US agents in Iran? Iranian sleeper cells? Israeli operatives? That’s what experts are trying to decipher.
dafuq "Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes … The reason, multiple sources said, was administration officials believed closing the strait would hurt Iran more than the US — a view that was bolstered by Iran’s empty threats to act in the strait after US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer"
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/12/politics/hormuz-trump-administration-underestimated-iran
Trump administration underestimated Iran war’s impact on Strait of Hormuz
The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
I mean, it was only one of the major risks included in every discussion of war with Iran since the 70s, who could have seen that coming?! Even if they thought it was unlikely, it was surely well within the range of possibilities, and you'd have to be an idiot to assume Iran would respond the same to an existential threat as they did to what was telegraphed as a limited action against the nuclear program
Donald: "We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability, but it’s easy for them to send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close range missile somewhere along, or in, this Waterway, no matter how badly defeated they are" - I dunno man, if it's still "very easy" for them to blow up ships with drones, mines or missiles, maybe you have not actually destroyed 100% of their military capability
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/trump-wants-countries-help-reopen-strait-hormuz-rcna263537
Trump wants other countries to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That might not be so easy.
U.S. allies and rivals responded cautiously after President Donald Trump said they should police the Strait of Hormuz, as Iranian threats to strike shipping on the vital trade route continue to cause chaos in global markets.“Many countries, especially those who are affected by Iran’s attempted closure of the Hormuz Strait, will be sending War Ships” to secure the shipping route, he posted Saturday on Truth Social, listing China, France, Japan, South Korea, the U.K. and “others” among the nations he hoped would provide support.“The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well.
The second part is not wrong of course. Ukraine has wreaked havoc on Russia's fleet from hundreds miles away, and the tens of miles Iran would need to cover would be far easier
Meanwhile, footage has begun to appear of pro-Iran forces in Iraq using (likely Russian-origin) FPVs. The Russians produce thousands per day, so it would be quite easy for them to provide enough to make things very, very unpleasant for any American or allied interests in Iraq or other places where Iran has a substantial network
https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-03-16-2026#0000019c-f9bd-dac0-ab9f-ffff363e0000
Trouble with Trump's "I can end it whenever it choose" line: US and Israeli air power can plausibly destroy Iran's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs. They can also probably render much of Iran's conventional forces incapable of significant operations. But no amount of bombing is going to stop small groups using drones and IEDs. If you remember the Beirut bombings in the 80s and the Iraq insurgency, and add drones on top of that… well, the enemy gets a vote
So, about that little laundry fire on the USS Ford: "The fire, according to two officials, began in the vent of a dryer in the ship’s laundry facilities and quickly spread. Sailors battled the blaze for more than 30 hours, officials and sailors said"
"Britain’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, attended the final talks between the US and Iran and judged that the offer made by Tehran on its nuclear programme was significant enough to prevent a rush to war"
"Israeli officials told U.S. counterparts they hope for an uprising even though it would lead to a massacre, according to a State Department cable reviewed by The Post"
LOL
(axios claims the the Israeli strike was approved by the US, but it's a clown show no matter which version is true https://www.axios.com/2026/03/19/iran-war-trump-israel-strike-gas)
"We’re over here just grinding away on banger memes, dude" - I'm sure American families everywhere will be comforted by the fact their loved ones died for banger memes
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/18/white-house-iran-game-online-00834373
