Mastodawn

Good morning to readers. #Oil prices have surpassed $94 per barrel (+31.25% compared to pre-war).

As the U.S.–#Iran truce holds, heavy anticipation fills the Middle #East. For those fleeing, the silence is too fragile to trust. Is this peace or just a pause before the unknown?

https://www.iranwar.news/p/24-hours-of-mayhem-on-the-ground

24 hours of mayhem in Iran, Lebanon and Israel

The U.S.-Iran peace deal is proving shaky: Israeli strikes on Lebanon ramp up; Iranians flee with little faith in the ceasefire, and many Israelis spent this morning in bomb shelters.

Iran War Dispatches with Tim Mak

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Tim Mak 1d ago

Arash* found out about the ceasefire while he was driving to #Armenia from Iran to join his family — they drove north to Armenia just days before the war started. “The #U.S. was building up its military forces in the region; we knew what was coming. So my wife and children left,” Arash explained.

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Tim Mak 1d ago

Arash had promised his family that he would join them in Armenia but remained in #Iran until #Trump threatened to bomb civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if #Iran did not open the #Hormuz Strait. Many experts deemed this a threat to commit war crimes.

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Tim Mak 1d ago

Arash knew that if the #U.S. started bombing the #railways and roads, it could become very difficult to leave.

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Tim Mak 1d ago

“I heard about the ceasefire while I was on the road [to #Armenia]. I was happy when I heard about it…I think it’s wrong that #Trump was planning to bomb civilian infrastructure. It has nothing to do with him," he explained.

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John Breen 1d ago

@timkmak I have trouble following the chain of alliances.
Iran is helping RU against Ukraine.
Ukraine is helping KSA and UAE (and USA and Israel ?) against Iran.
But the war on Iran was initiated by Trump and Netanyahu.
Israel and KSA/UAE seem cozy these days.
USA is a KSA/UAE ally.
Are Israel and USA seen as Ukraine allies ?
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John Breen

@timkmak Which side is RU seen as supporting in Iran, and how far are they willing to go ?
It's clear that China is exerting some influence, and China is seen as supporting RU against Ukraine.
What I've not mentioned in this calculus is the EU, because they seem uninterested in Iran. They are more interested in Russia, Ukraine, and Orban. Where US POTUS/VPOTUS support the fascist...

???

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