Mastodawn

Angela Miller

@simon_brooke
It's a messy and interesting scenario. Starmer is unlikely to survive, so it will be a different PM who deals with the fallout. It depends whether or not they see it as an opportunity to look strong in England by denying all three of the other nations what their electorate has voted for.

@Alternatecelt I find it hard to believe that #UKLabour are capable of doing anything else. They are, in their current form, as much an #Imperialist party as #ReformUKLtd are.

@simon_brooke
Definitely.
Not sure it will be a workable tactic though if all three of the 'celtic' nations work together to apply pressure.

@Alternatecelt It will certainly motivate very strong showings for all of #SinnFein, #Plaid_Cymru and the #SNP at the next #Westminster election, whenever that occurs.

@simon_brooke
Indeed, but there are ways the three administrators can work together before that too.
What we really need at the juncture are strong allies in Europe to recognise what is actually happening between Westminster and the other parliaments. That's the hard bit.

Pete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫1d ago

@Alternatecelt @simon_brooke
It for sure won't be a workable tactic for any unstable minority government unable to get anything done without at least the abstention of the Greens, Plaid or the SNP.
They don't need to worry about Sinn Fein at Westminster, except indirectly as empty SF seats replace potential unionist allies.

#UKPol
#IrishReunification
#ScottishIndependence

@petealexharris @Alternatecelt I think #UKLabour would (as they did under Callaghan) feel that they could rely on secessionist votes while refusing concessions to secession because the alternative would be right wing parties in power. Callaghan couldn't, and that's how we got #Thatcher.

The secessionist parties' position will be strongest if #ReformUKLtd and the #Conservatives do not have sufficient votes to form a governing coalition.

@simon_brooke @petealexharris
Honestly, that isn't outwith the range of possibility. Reform polling seems now to be on a downward trend, probably because of Farage's Trumpism. Oh, and their performance in local councils.

Pete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫1d ago

@Alternatecelt @simon_brooke
They're actually quite bad at politics.

They were counting on being a shoe-in as the anti-establishment protest vote, but that way was unexpectedly closed and they literally don't know how to do the bread-and-butter work of policy making and campaigning, or even basic vetting of candidates.

@petealexharris @simon_brooke
It's a thing with these far right parties. they aren't ever really that good at politics, only at tapping into and using anti-establishment feeling. When someone comes along that's better at that than they are, while actually having a solution to the problem that isn't just about hating people, then they will just get pushed back out into the margins. Hate and fear are exhausting. and never offers a genuine solution.

Pete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫1d ago

@Alternatecelt @simon_brooke
Exactly that.

Ian Turton 1d ago

@simon_brooke @petealexharris @Alternatecelt can't completely rule out Labour doing a deal with Reform Ltd to keep the SNP and/or Plaid out

@ianturton @petealexharris @Alternatecelt no indeed. #UKLabour have been so busy stealing #ReformUKLtd policies that there isn't a lot to choose between them now.

Reform might even prefer Labour as coalition partners over the #Tories.