Prof. Sam LawlerRE: https://mastodon.social/@hannorein/116319800679957972
Pew pew pew Kessler Syndrome here we come! (Ok yes, we're already in Kessler Syndrome, this is Kessler Syndrome: small collisions happen more and more frequently)
Follow up: I didn't read carefully. This may have been caused by an internal explosion rather than a debris collision (similar to what happened to another Starlink satellite a couple months ago). So... SpaceX will make Kessler Syndrome happen even faster with their exploding satellites, I guess. Weeee
Hanno Rein@sundogplanets How can one possibly distinguish one from the other?
@hannorein Maybe the velocity distribution of debris? Or the size distribution? I'm trusting that LeoLabs knows what they're talking about (not sure if that's a good assumption or not)
Schamschula@sundogplanets @hannorein Over ten years ago Dr. Arjun Tan authored a series of papers on exploding satellites (by internal and external events) https://www.ripublication.com/Volume/aasav4n1.htm The plots therein give some velocity distributions.
Geoff 🏴@sundogplanets @hannorein But that's also like discussing whether a domino chain was set off by a bullet or a butterfly. A few links down the reaction and it's just academic.
Mastodon Migration@_thegeoff @sundogplanets @hannorein
Yup. Once all that junk up there starts smashing into each other, all it takes is a triggering event, and you can get a cascading series of collisions, like a room full of mousetraps and ping-pong balls.
simonbp@sundogplanets @hannorein IIRC they use radar primarily, so I bet it means they didn't see anything moving fast until they suddenly saw a lot of things moving fast
Michael BuschThe last time this happened; LeoLabs attributed it to an internal explosion because there was no known debris passing near the Starlink concerned and because it happened at relatively low altitude, where the density of small untracked pieces of debris is lower.
@michael_w_busch @sundogplanets So I guess it's a probabilistic argument. Fair enough.
@hannorein @michael_w_busch that makes sense, thanks
That it has happened multiple times also suggests a failure mode for the satellites. SpaceX cutting corners on testing to cut costs is not new.
@michael_w_busch @sundogplanets I can imagine a scenario where a small debris particle hits the satellite, maybe somewhere important like a fuel talk, and it then breaks apart without a big net momentum change?
Andreas Brunthaler@hannorein
Shouldn't the net momentum be different from an internal explosion and an external hit? But this would require that you can measure the mass and velocity of the fragments. Is that possible?
@sundogplanets
Shouldn't the net momentum be different from an internal explosion and an external hit? But this would require that you can measure the mass and velocity of the fragments. Is that possible?
@sundogplanets
Knud Jahnke@brunthal @hannorein @sundogplanets
Few gram at at a few km/s vs. several 100kg. Not sure that's easily measurable.