As Rachel Reeves (finally) swings behind an explicit statement that Brexit has cost the UK around 8% of GDP, we might ask what that looks like:

It equals around £224bn a year (in 2025), which given the UK's tax burden of around 35% is £78bn in lost tax revenue a year.

So if you wondering why the public sector is under-funded, while a continuing austerity logic is always in play, this lost tax income for the state is also contributing to budget shortfalls.

#Brexit #politics
h/t Observer

@ChrisMayLA6 But at least the NHS is funded well with those reclaimed EU payments right? *right*?
@ChrisMayLA6
We need some clear, unequivocal communications on this...
@ChrisMayLA6 But on the plus side the UK now gets to enjoy Wendys, Peptobismol and Saturday Night Live.

@stx
In the 1960s the UK had satire on TV & Radio and the fast food chain named after the Popeye character Wimpy.

The US franchises world wide are both parasites (export profits and often avoid tax) and Cultural imperialism.

There used to be good UK TV.

Brexit advertising was a lie (part Russian financed) and it was about maintaining money laundering. The referendum didn't meet democratic standards.

@ChrisMayLA6

A very modest step would be the creation of a Minister for Europe.

@ChrisMayLA6 The UK public sector is underfunded because the government chooses to do so. It has nothing to do with "missing" tax receipts, as tax does not fund spending, it is gathered *after* spending. Repeat after me: a government is not a household, it does not need to balance income and expenditure

@rpluim

Ha ha, teaching a grandmother to suck eggs... in theory you are right (as is MMT), but with our political class operating on a different set or principles tax receipts remain an issue - if the bond markets were relaxed about MMT, and the political class adopted it as an operating logic, then you would be right.... but equally, state spending could be higher, if the UK chose & took the hit on Gilt yields.

@ChrisMayLA6 If we're going to discuss MMT, then I'm going to point out that gilt yields are irrelevant, as the government does not need to borrow to fund spending 😁 (and before someone shouts "inflation", that only happens if you overcreate money)

@rpluim

Doesn't 'need' to but chooses to; so they are irrelevant if a Govt. is choosing to create credit to fund public services (by adopting a MMT-like fiscal policy), but all too relevant if the Govt. chooses to retinal an orthodox fiscal stance.

We can wish the Govt. would adopt MMT as part of their (our) fiscal political economy, but until they do, the bond market will shape political decisions.

As for inflation; that's entirely dependent on the rate of credit creation & how its deployed

@ChrisMayLA6 I think we're in violent agreement on the functioning of money and bonds. I see no hope of the current UK government ever acknowledging those realities, let alone acting based on them. (Isn't the whole "we must borrow exactly what we spend" fairly recent? I'll have to check on Mr Murphy's site)

@rpluim

Given no Govt. has ever managed that, it's only a rhetorical commitment....

@ChrisMayLA6 @rpluim if a government freely chooses a fiscal stance that causes a problem then why don't you consider that the cause of the problem?

@johnl @rpluim

Its a good Q. but needs be put into the context of that 'choice' - to choose MMT would be to not only shift the fiscal stance of the UK it would be to go up against bond markets (at least for the period of transition), and sad to say bond market traders influence currency traders & other market makers in financial instruments - the choice is part of the problem, the global political economy is also a problem for the choice unless you thought the UK could be autarkic

@ChrisMayLA6

I experience financial discomfort.
You have to forego foreign holidays.
She is forced to borrow to pay her bills.
They are in poverty.

@ChrisMayLA6

As we decided last week, I'm not an economist.
That said, I was pretty sure our economy would suffer as a direct result of Brexit, which is why I voted to stay.

As an aside: my boss and I talked about how we'd be voting in that referendum, and he went the wrong way, the business Has never been as prosperous as it was prr-brexit

He was the turkey that voted for Christmas.

@ChrisMayLA6 there needs to be an Inquiry into how this mess happened so it never happens again.
Sadly that's not what Inquiries seem to do here, we find out the problems, we point fingers and then nothing happens and we just carry on like before.
@Lazarou @ChrisMayLA6 indeed. In this case, the inquiry (into foreign interference in British democracy) has expressly been forbidden (again) to look at one of the key causes of Putin’s Brexit 🤬

@ChrisMayLA6

Brexit is a rash of self dug potholes.