I presented at the local planetary journal club this morning about the 3 articles I co-authored for The Conversation in the past weeks about the effects that one million satellites would have on the night sky, the atmosphere, and the orbital environment (spoiler alert: all very very bad)

https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

https://theconversation.com/too-many-satellites-earths-orbit-is-on-track-for-a-catastrophe-but-we-can-stop-it-275430

And one on light pollution that I thought would get published today but might not be out until after the weekend.

A new space race could turn our atmosphere into a ‘crematorium for satellites’

Planned ‘megaconstellations’ of satellites could cause unforeseen harm to the ozone layer and climate systems. Global regulation is needed before it’s too late.

The Conversation

The third article in this (horrible) series of articles I've co-authored is now out. https://theconversation.com/a-million-new-spacex-satellites-will-destroy-the-night-sky-for-everyone-on-earth-277938

A million satellites of the size required for "AI data centers" would mean that everyone in the world would have more visible satellites than stars for most of the night and most of the year.

But don't worry, we'll be in Kessler Syndrome WAY before we get to a million satellites!

A million new SpaceX satellites will destroy the night sky — for everyone on Earth

If SpaceX launches one million new satellites, it will increase atmospheric pollution and risk of falling debris. And we will see more satellites than stars.

The Conversation

RE: https://mastodon.social/@sundogplanets/116152057176915428

I've got a thread here where I more carefully explain the prediction plot, and post a bunch of sky predictions for many latitudes around the world, just to make the point of how incredibly stupid the idea of a million satellites is.

Oh and fun fact, 2 people have sent me this terrifyingly stupid graphic from SpaceX this morning, showing that we actually significantly *underestimated* the reflecting area of these absolutely fucking enormous satellites they're planning. This is so stupid.
@sundogplanets logistical question: is there a starship now that doesn't reliably fall apart?
@hllizi @sundogplanets The figure shows Starship V3 that has not yet been tested, so we don’t know if it will blow up or not. They plan to launch it next month
@EricFielding
And Musk talks about an even bigger v4. Which will ofc work. 🤷‍♂️
@hllizi @sundogplanets

@EricFielding @hllizi @sundogplanets

The figure also imagines magically launching 5,000 Starships per year from a launch pad that keeps having to be rebuilt.

This scam keeps getting more absurd.

@michael_w_busch @hllizi @sundogplanets They are building two new Starship launch pads at Cape Canaveral. The million-satellite data center plan is ridiculous. SpaceX is planning to do an IPO in a USA stock market this year and it will have to provide public information on company operations and plans to apply for the IPO. Wall Street is already cooling off on Tesla, so it remains to be seen if they will buy SpaceX stock at the level Elon imagines.

@sundogplanets

Wasn't there something about a need to increase planetary albedo? Is this a help with that? 

@sundogplanets
But do the Optimus robots work?
Will they ever work because they rely only on vision and not 100s of touch sensors and distance measurement sensors?

It all seems like fantasy.

@sundogplanets OMFSM, this is stupid on so many levels? How many Optimus robots to do the work? m(

Edit: typo

@benknispel I know I feel gross sharing it. But it's literally the only information they've given publicly about the size of these satellites. Ugh.
@sundogplanets At least can take comfort in the fact like, like most of Elon’s promises, it’ll never happen. 1 billion Optimus robots?🤣

@gadgetgav @sundogplanets

Perhaps they filed for permission for 1 million satellites, more so that they would not need to ask for permission again for a long time (no matter the purpose of the satellite), than to actually launch 1 million satellites in the near-to-mid-term.

No matter the goals of the administration, they would be stupid to give that away.

@gadgetgav @sundogplanets

"Data center" satellite. Any satellite with a computer in it.

@sundogplanets
Fingers crossed this goes as far as the Hyperloop

@sundogplanets

Plus they are hugely vulnerable to any number of disruptions, including to anyone with a launcher and a bucket of ball bearings.

Anyone who thinks these won't be a target in future wars isn't paying attention to the way infrastructure is destroyed in modern asymmetric warfare – despite the fact we have an object lesson going right now. And the number of small nations with a big enough launcher increases every year.

@jackwilliambell @sundogplanets I am frankly surprised Iran hasn't done this yet.

@sirspate @sundogplanets

Yeah. One good Starlink hit could trigger a whole Kessler Syndrome cascade.

And I really doubt Musk has them insured for 'acts of war'. (If he has them insured at all.)

I'm also surprised North Korea hasn't threatened to do something like this.

@sundogplanets

STOP AI DATACENTRES USING COMMUNITY POWER AND WATER!!!

Ok

NOT LIKE THAT!!!!!

Time to admit if you're opposed to orbital #Ai your opposition to Ai wasn't about environmental damage.

@sundogplanets Thanks for your reporting on this! Do wish more of these tech folk had seen Wall-E back in the day. Always amazing how much science fiction and science fact roll together.

And do hope the goats are doing well. 😊

@sundogplanets

Excellently put "One corporation based in one country should not be allowed to ruin orbit, the night sky, and the atmosphere for everyone else in the world."

@sundogplanets I mean, let's be honest here, the first time someone accused SpaceX and Elon Musk directly of polluting Earth orbit and destroying the night sky for everyone, Musk and his cronies surely resolved immediately upon doing even more of it
@sundogplanets @Lazarou "providing innovation in night-sky technologies since $year" - some dipshit in the future
@stonykark @sundogplanets I keep thinking about when Mr Burns stole the Sun from Springfield....
@sundogplanets
oh thanks, your last sentence is a solace.. (all this is an ugly wtaf)
@sundogplanets almost sounds like a Faraday cage.

@sundogplanets

The song: Twinkle Twinkle Little Star is going to have new meaning for decades...

😢

@sundogplanets
What the hell happened to governance?
Stop this sick maniac from screwing up our home.
If not, why not?
@sundogplanets Musk's 1 million AI sats is pretty much a ponsischeme like hyperloop.
@Luna don’t forget the tunnel thing and Department of Government Efficiency *sigh*
@Luna Yep. That would imply lots of weight to be put in orbit.
@sundogplanets I don't think it would be inaccurate to picture the world from Wall-E
@sundogplanets What commons has not been raped?

@sundogplanets

So many issues with satellite "pollution"

Teaching future generations there was never a Natural sky and night view

Un obstructed view of the heavens is a birth right for any creature on Earth - I mean that

Huge security risks of constellations if the Muskrat goes out of business

Huge security risks if Muskrat is hacked or there is significant ground operations disruption

Out of control constellations, impact risks

@sundogplanets
IMHO it is quite strange that an agency of just one country decides over the sky pollution of the entire world.
We should expand the area in which every country can decide what or who is allowed to fly over it to let's say 1000 miles or 1500 km. Within this range every country should be allowed to destroy every object flying there before this object can cause any harm or generate profit.

Of course the US agency FCC might decide about satellites flying over the USA only.

@sundogplanets I love the idea of a local planetary journal club, but I suspect that similar to Mr Universe Competition there will be one planet being over represented.
Earth's low orbit is becoming cluttered with high-velocity space junk

Thousands of satellites are being launched into space at low Earth orbit, joining hundreds of thousands of pieces of space junk, and it's becoming a real problem.

@sundogplanets what I don’t understand is, how the aerospace engineers and astronomers they have working at spacex can be ok with this.

They need to be shunned by all the academic communities they belong to.