Dead Gaza Babies Matter

My guess is there will not be a Congressional election this year

https://lemmy.world/post/44266548

Mar 14 at 9:35pmWeb
Show threadYoFrodoMar 14
this is just an ad for that gambling site
Show threadFermionMar 14
I’m getting pretty tired of the notion that gambling odds are better predictors than polls.
Show thread🍉 Albert 🍉Mar 14
i have family stupid enough to follow those things as if they predict the future
Show threadidiomaddictMar 14
It’s just like a poll! Only you’re only polling people rich and emotionally disconnected enough to want to place these types of bets. I’m sure that won’t skew anything, right?
Show threadSerinusMar 15
Wait, are we still talking about money skewing the bet, or are we talking about the bet skewing the reality?
Show threadidiomaddictMar 15
That’s the fun part, it’s both!
Show threadexplodicleMar 15
Seriously asking: have there ever been academic studies comparing the relative accuracy of polling predictions vs betting predictions?
Show threadgivesomefucksMar 14

It’s not even a gambling site.

It’s a site for idiots to funnel money to greedy assholes with insider information.

If you only have publicly available information, you’re just throwing money away if you regularly use the site.

Show threadGalMar 15
It’s a gambling site
Show threadgivesomefucksMar 15

Buddy…

You didn’t have to tell me you didn’t understand.

But I feel like you do that a lot, and I really don’t want to keep getting notified, because this doesn’t seem like a rat occurrence

Show threadmercMar 15

No, you see it’s an ad for that gambling site that was boosted by a twitter influencer who added value by saying “Let’s fucking go!!! 🔥” And, after that, someone screenshotted this influencer’s post that boosted the gambling site and posted it here. Then people upvoted it.

Was that influencer paid to promote the gambling site? Probably. Was OP paid? Probably not, just a useful idiot.

Show threadcriss_crossMar 15
100% something you see gambling sites do to encourage people to place bets.
Show threadodelikMar 15
Gambling is just polling in 2026.
Show threadZomgMar 14
It’s important to not feel over confident. That leads to less turn out because people think their victory is already secured without them participating.
Show threadScrubblesMar 14
Both times we lost I met so many who were like “well I didn’t think he would” who didn’t even bother to go to the polls.
Show threadZomgMar 14
Exactly
Show threadgivesomefucksMar 14

Both times the problem wasn’t voters were overconfident though…

Both times voters just didn’t like the Dem candidates, and the Dem candidates operated under the assumption they were safe enough to just scream at anyone who wasn’t 100% positive about two candidates with zero combined charisma and far to the right of their own voter bases

You can’t just order voters to fake enthusiasm.

If you want enthusiastic voters you have to let them have a candidate you like.

Which is why last year the DNC appointed a chair who will let fair primaries happen again…

Show threadScrubblesMar 14
Agree, but then by not voting they allowed the worse of the two to get in.
Show threadgivesomefucksMar 14

Yeah…

But if you’re blaming voters you’re using the same neoliberal logic that even the DNC realized wasn’t working…

Show threadScrubblesMar 14
I actually use Voyager and swiped too far. But hey, that is. You can keep it, and this new one.
Show threadgivesomefucksMar 14

Suuuuure.

Has nothing to do with you making simping for a billionaire your main personality trait.

Taylor swift cares as much about you as trump cares about his voters or Bill Gates cares about a random windows user.

Obviously it was an accident and you not willing to sacrifice the rest of us so Tay Tay can get a 17th plane.

Have fun, I’m sure if you keep doing it she may wave at you from 200 yards away some day.

Show threadScrubblesMar 14
weirdly personal attack, but k.
Show threadzarkanianMar 14

People don’t vote that way. Nor should they.

They will vote for a candidate who listens to them and is willing to fight for them. They’ll vote for somebody who addresses their concerns and will get them what they need. This is Politics 101.

Show threadScrubblesMar 14
shouldn’t, but I’ve had too many elections under this system to ever expect a candidate like that :/
Show threadzarkanianMar 15
Have you done anything to get a candidate like that?
Show threadMontaggeMar 15
So a unicorn candidate
Show threadzarkanianMar 15
It’s like the bare minimum. Again, Politics 101.
Show threadZexksMar 15
You live in a fantasy world
Show threadGathorallMar 15
Well you should not have first past the post voting because it is a ridiculous failed alpha test of democracy but if you insist on it you have to act within the constraints.
Show threadFizzMar 15
Anyone who looked at the two options and “wasnt inspired enough to vote” doesnt think Trump is that bad.
Show threadMartianReconMar 15

Harris was selling out multiple stadiums for her campaign. Just because she personally didn’t check every single box that leftists on here have, they stayed home.

And now we have a Nazi president, because these people weren’t happy with 30-40-50% of what they probably wanted, so they get nothing instead.

Show threadzarkanianMar 15

Harris was selling out multiple stadiums for her campaign.

Why didn’t she win then?

Just because she personally didn’t check every single box that leftists on here have, they stayed home.

They shouldn’t have stayed home. They should’ve voted for Jill Stein or Cornel West.

Show threadMartianReconMar 15
Should have voted for the Russian agent Jill Stein? Yeah sure thanks for telling everyone you’re not a serious person.
Show threadjj4211Mar 15

While that’s a narrative that sounds nice and reassuring, the data is more depressing than that.

The percentage of voting eligible people that actually came out for the election in 2024 was second only to 2020 since they’ve tracked VEP, and I think we can all agree 2020 had a whole lot of special circumstances. The easiest election ever to cast a ballot in, under the most duress the citizens have known, with folks having plenty of spare time to vote. It enjoyed an anomolous high turnout but those circumstances evaporated by 2024.

The last time we saw arguably higher turnout other than 2020 was the 1960s.

We did not have some anomolous low turnout in 2024 to blame, the fairly typical voting turnout actively preferred this…

Show threadMartianReconMar 15
No we had a stolen election. There’s ample proof of that.
Show threadzarkanianMar 15
Did you ask them why they didn’t go?
Show threadScrubblesMar 15
Yup, got the same answer is all of the ones here. And the worse candidate was elected.
Show threadAssassassinMar 14
Fuck polymarket, that garbage is representative of nothing other than “gamblers on our shit app think in this ratio”.
Show threadjj4211Mar 15
And since it’s something they have an emotional attachment to the outcome, it says more about the wishes of the people betting than any practical data.
Show threadkingofrasMar 14

Mark me

Trump doubles down on canceling elections - Lemmy.World

Lemmy

Show threadDead Gaza Babies MatterMar 14
Let’s hope I am wrong.
Show threadGrandwolf319Mar 14

Hahahahahaha,

Hahahaha,

Never underestimate dem’s ability to self sabotage.

Show threadScubusMar 15
No no, we’ll win. It’s basically guaranteed. Just as it’s further guaranteed that we’ll squander the next presidential cycle so the ratchet effect can stay in full swing. Murica, fuck me.
Show threadGhostieMar 14
Silence, brand.
Show threadmercMar 15
The question is whether “brand” is “JoJoFromJerz” or “Polymarket”, or both.
Show threadGhostieMar 15
Polymarket was the target of my original comment. I don’t agree with anything OP is saying either.
Show threadmercMar 15
The other one’s a brand too.
Show threadGhostieMar 15
Oh? Never heard of them. Both then.
Show threadmercMar 15
Yep. Makes a living doing snarky posts about US politics. I’ve never seen any indication of thoughtful analysis or research. It’s just jumping on news as soon as it comes out with some “attitude”.
Show threadGhostieMar 15
What a goober.
Show threadbrucethemooseMar 15

Well its working, isn’t it?

Lots of views.

Hell, 415 upvotes on Lemmy.

Show threadKichaeMar 14
“Iran” is going to bomb polling stations in so many blue counties.
Show threadKnitWitMar 15
Yep, gonna launch a stealth drone attack on California from two oceans away.
Show threaditsgroundhogdayagainMar 15
They would still need to be seated after being elected.
Show threadBarneyPiccoloMar 15

We have NEVER cancelled elections for any reason, not even during the Civil War. That is a bright red line that must not be crossed, and we have to let them know at every opportunity that we will NEVER accept it.

So when you say that you “assume” we aren’t going to have an election, you signal to MAGA that you expect that outcome, and will accept it. You have to send the opposite message, that any attempt to cancel or suspend elections will be met with SEVERE consequences.

Show threadKlearMar 15
You already let them cross red line after red line. They won’t care this time either.
Show threadSoulgMar 15
Ah yes “we” “let them” our bad everyone whoops
Show threadProfessorozoneMar 15
Ok, so assuming there IS an election and assume the Dems take control. What then? Like everything will get better? Sure. I’ll hold my breath.
Show threadDuamerthraxMar 15
You then vote for the next, most left option and keep doing that. People not voting consistently is how things kept shifting to the right. Or the fourth box option. Either way, just don’t encourage inaction.
Show threadProfessorozoneMar 15
I think your overestimating the number of left wing candidates.