Mastodawn

So, there is about to be a huge problem with global food production. The Strait of Hormuz carries one-third of globally traded fertilizer.

Key fertilizer producers in the region have halted operations due to safety concerns and damage from drone strikes. #Iran has stopped production. With no strategic reserve for nitrogen fertilizer (unlike oil), the global market lacks buffers to absorb such a shock. This has led to a sharp spike in prices and a partial pause in fertilizer bidding across the U.S. and other major farming regions.

Farmers, including the U.S., Brazil, and India, are facing uncertainty over whether they can secure enough fertilizer for the spring planting season. Analysts warn this could trigger a "fertiliser shock" that ripples through global food supply chains, increasing prices for staples like bread, pasta, and meat. The crisis is also affecting vegetable oils and sugar refining.

Get your gardens going folks. There’s not much time.

#war #epsteinWar #israel

tuban_muzuru Mar 7

Wonder if El Trumpo will attempt to pay off these guys, as he paid off the soybean farmers here in the states.

I can't believe El Trumpo got away with that, and everyone just sittin' around with one thumb in their mouths and the other thump shoved up their asses....

LukefromDC Mar 7

@tuban_muzuru @MissConstrue Paying off farmers because your war made their crops fail feeds nobody.

This sort of thing goes all the way back to the combined effects in ancient warfare of diverting workers from fields to battlefields and intentional burning of crops either on an enemy's land or when forced to retraat. It was quite obvious those driven from their own fields would often say "if we don't eat, the enemy doesn't eat," harvest anything they could carry wirh them, and burn the rest.

MissConstrue Mar 7

@tuban_muzuru I dunno who he’d pay off. Us and the Israelis are who have bombed ships in the Hormuz. We bombed an unarmed ship and let 90 people die rather than follow the law and rescue them, and Israel just bombed an oil tanker because it moved.

We are the clear and present danger here. We bombed the factories that make nitrogen. Without nitrogen, crop production will halve. Starving people cease to care about niceties. A global food crisis would be a disaster that could kill hundreds of millions of people.

tuban_muzuru Mar 7

El Trumpo will exceed even Napoleon, but for sheer crassness, he is our National Exemplar of Bad Taste. World Champeen.

tuban_muzuru Mar 7

To where goes this Kaiju ? I want out of this movie.

MissConstrue Mar 7

@tuban_muzuru If his gold spray painted white house isn't the absolute epitome of what America has become, I don't know what is.

I swear to Bob, one of the things that drives me mad about our current crop of #EpsteinClass #GildedAge asshats is that none of them do Obscene Wealth well.

If I were a heartless, soulless billionaire, I would have an airship. A fleet of dirigibles. I would fund a resurgence of steam punk aesthetic. I would have that spider mount from that terrible will smith movie. I would carry a walking stick, and use it liberally to make my point. I'm just saying, if I had "fuck you" money, I'd be having a lot more fun than these guys are.

If I were a billionaire with a soul...I wouldn't be a billionaire, because that's just immoral.

Violet Madder Mar 8

@MissConstrue @tuban_muzuru

I guess they're planning to take over the ammonia production with the Venezuelan oil, but I've got no idea if there are factories for that or how long it would take to catch up.

MissConstrue Mar 8

@violetmadder @tuban_muzuru

Yeah, I have no idea how that entire production chain happens.

tuban_muzuru Mar 8

@MissConstrue @violetmadder

India has a huge natural gas based ammonia-via-LPG process going too

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1266392/ammonia-plant-capacities-united-states/

https://news.oilandgaswatch.org/post/manufacturers-of-ammonia-from-natural-gas-plan-rapid-growth-in-the-u-s-but-will-it-fizzle-under-trump

@MissConstrue @tuban_muzuru

U.S. ammonia plant capacities 2023| Statista

In 2023, CF Industries, a manufacturer of agricultural fertilizers based in Illinois, was the company with the largest ammonia plant, located in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, with a production capacity of almost four million metric tons.

Statista

MissConstrue Mar 8

@bweller @violetmadder @tuban_muzuru That is an awesome resource unknown to me. Thank you! I found this while wandering around their site: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1287148/global-mop-production-by-region/

Potash is the potassium derivative used for fertilizer around the world, along with ammonia and others. As the chart demonstrates, destroying capacity in west Asia leaves only the US as a large scale producer, and we don’t make enough for the US, if I understand the numbers, and I may not.

Global potash production by region| Statista

Eastern Europe and Central Asia was the region with the highest production of muriate of potash (also known as MOP or potassium chloride) in 2024, with an output of around 28.3 million metric tons.

Statista

Violet Madder Mar 8

@MissConstrue @bweller @tuban_muzuru

(And meanwhile, phosphorous is dwindling. There's no way to synthesize it, but instead of keeping it on the land with efficient water and waste management and soil health, it's getting washed out to pollute the sea)

@MissConstrue
What is the source for that? A quick search gave me (a source I'm not familiar with)
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/fertilizer-production-by-country
that states that even if you ignore Russia, Saudi Arabian's market share is roughly 1/8. Other sources I see show older data with completely different results from 2019 or 2018.

Fertilizer Production by Country 2026

Discover population, economy, health, and more with the most comprehensive global statistics at your fingertips.

World Population Review

MissConstrue Mar 7

@tzafrir search engine “fertilizer shortage iran” gave me about 20 links.

Run these through your archive of choice to get past paywalls;

https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/fertilizer-prices-set-to-spike-what-the-iran-conflict-means-for-your-farm

https://www.ft.com/content/7efe2060-8112-47aa-ad33-628ed2eb80ed

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-06/iran-conflict-sends-farmers-rushing-to-secure-critical-fertilizers

https://www.foodingredientsfirst.com/news/hormuz-crisis-food-ingredients-supply-chain.html

@MissConstrue @tzafrir

Here’s a report from yesterday from a major TV station in Des Moines, #Iowa.
https://www.kcci.com/article/iran-war-raising-fertilizer-fuel-prices-iowa-farmers-2026-spring-planting/70645602

@MissConstrue
And prices are already unbearably high for far too many people. Another good big surge and we should see people starving in the streets. Or rather, being rounded up on the streets by ICE and sent to starve in concentration camps.

Hugs4friends ♾🇺🇦 🇵🇸😷Mar 8

@MissConstrue Trump could well end up being added to the mulching machine.

MissConstrue Mar 8

@Tooden Yes, but it could only be used for sour grapes... ;)

Coach Pāṇini ®Mar 8

Call it the “Gay of Hormuz” and let the reactions fall where they may: https://youtu.be/R2EbcmM4csg

Epstein’s War on the Gay of Hormuz

YouTube

MissConstrue Mar 8

@paninid I have watched, and really appreciate the academic work behind Professor Jiang's Game Theory of Predictive History series. #9, from which this is taken, is here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIS2eB-rGv0

It's long, but it's so worth it.

Game Theory #9: The US-Iran War

YouTube

ChookMother 🇦🇺🦘Mar 8

@MissConstrue "Get your gardens going" and keep some chickens! They provide fertilizer as well as eggs.

MostlyTato Mar 9

@MissConstrue
This is the first year my allotment should hopefully be up to speed for food production after three years improving the soil and generating materials. Time to stock up on as much as I can from the shops gradually before food inflation hits.

@MissConstrue #Morocco will be laughing all the way to the bank. But seriously anothernreason for more solar powered #ammonia plants right?