The Horn of #Africa may be the next target, amid the escalating, near all-out (proxy) #war between #US #Israel and #Iran
The US, Israel, Arab states including #Qatar, #SaudiArabia, the #UAE, and Iran all have varying levels of influence over a number of Horn states or infra-state actors. These influence networks, however, overlap, and do not constitute neat “blocks” as they are sometimes portrayed.
https://addisstandard.com/somalilands-israel-deal-could-put-berbera-port-at-risk/
All countries in the region have condemned Iranian retaliatory strikes on Arab states — save #Eritrea. Some nevertheless enjoy close ties with #Iran (#Djibouti, #Sudan), #Israel (#Somaliland, #SouthSudan) or both (#Ethiopia). The #UAE proxy network is vast and #SaudiArabia has recently stepped up her strategic presence.
The main danger to the region stems from #Yemen, where the #Houthis have not — yet — joined the #war on the Iranian side, unlike #Hezbollah and Iraqi militias.
Obvious possible targets include #US
French and Italian bases in #Djibouti, in line not only with strikes on US bases across the #MiddleEast, but also on the French base in the #UAE and on #UK bases in #Cyprus.
A natural target could be #Somaliland, a fact I previously underlined. Besides large UAE interests, notably at Berbera, #Israel s recognition of Somaliland in late December of last year would participate in making it a highly symbolic prize.
Possible but less likely targets — albeit still uncomfortably close — include #Ethiopia and #Puntland, close #UAE allies/proxies, while the first has also recently demonstrated her closeness to #Israel.
Besides the economic fallout or a redo of the #RedSea crisis, the rapid escalation in the #US Israel #Iran war means #Africa risks becoming a direct target, depending on if and when the #Houthis might enter the #war.
Mathieu Gotteland