#SouthSudan relapses into #CivilWar: The context
South Sudan is a country deeply scarred, by centuries of Egyptian, British, Sudanese #colonialism, #slavery and #genocide. Autonomy (2005) and independence (2011) have meant that (Northern) #Sudan has done away with the mantel of the oppressor. It has not meant, however, safety or peace for the South Sudanese.
As the South Sudanese guerrilla movement #SPLM (Sudan People’s Liberation Movement) became a terrorist one-party independent state, so opened an old rift between its elites, largely along ethnic lines. The ensuing #CivilWar (2013–2018) caused 4.5 million displaced (ca. 40% of the population) and ca. 380,000 excess deaths, including 190,000 violent deaths.
Today’s elites have remained the same and their rift has endured. The Dinka president Salva Kiir, born in 1951, has held his position continously since 2005. He has only faced elections once, in 2010. The Nuer vice-president and head of the #SPLM-IO (In Opposition) Riek Machar, born in 1950, has also held his position almost continuously since 2005 (apart from the war years).
Their clientelist policy has been at the root of South Sudan’s woes for decades. #SouthSudan has been consistently ranked as the most corrupt country in the world. Transparency international awarded it a score of 9/100 last year, on par with #Somalia.
The contrast between the trajectories of both countries is stark however. While #Somalia bet it all on sovereignty, state- and capacity-building, to the point of risking a political crisis and a major degradation of the security situation in a hope for better days, in #SouthSudan neither peace- nor state-building have ever been seriously attempted.
The 2015 “Compromise Peace Agreement” and 2018 “Revitalized Peace Agreement” have been flouted since day 1, leading to the necessity of a 3rd peace agreement in 2020 (the “Rome declaration”). Major reforms have been delayed and the country is to this day functioning on a provisory constitution.
While the number of states has changed 4 times in 15 years to accommodate opaque power-bargaining, one of the lower benchmarks before national elections could happen and the transition end, that is a national census and voter registration, have not and will not occur before planned #elections in December 2026 — which have been delayed twice already.
#SouthSudan s foreign policy has been likewise one of patronage-seeking, be it that of the #US, #Israel or the #UAE. Neighbouring #Uganda, #Russia and #China have also gained influence, the latter mostly for economic considerations. CNPC (China), Petronas (#Malaysia) and ONGC (#India) are major stakeholders in the exploitation of South Sudanese #oil.
When gaining independence, the vast majority of Sudanese #oil production has become South Sudanese — and transits to this day through (Northern) Sudanese territory to Port-Sudan. Oil has since remained the sole source of state revenue and item of foreign trade, while the wider population and basic services have failed to benefit.
A recent report by the #UN commission on human rights in #SouthSudan has underlined how widespread #corruption and brazen predation have weakened a state that is not failing for it has never been built, while aggravating a dire humanitarian situation and motivating mass human rights abuse and continued cycles of violence in the country.
Before the current relapse, 78% of the population was in need of humanitarian assistance, while 53% knew critical hunger levels (IPC 3+). #Floods affected ca. 890,000 people, and #SouthSudan was going through its worst #cholera outbreak on record.
Mathieu Gotteland