Mastodawn

Another somewhat breathless article positing a planned executive-branch takeover of elections, this time declaring a "national emergency".

There's no telling what Trump might include in an executive order, but whether he can actually carry any of these sweeping proposals out (constitutionality aside) is another story altogether.

The midterms are less than 9 months away, which is simply not enough time to extensively alter voting tech or procedures.

https://wapo.st/3N5cpEn

Trump, seeking executive power over elections, is urged to declare emergency

Activists who say they are in coordination with the White House are circulating a draft executive order that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting.

The Washington Post

Matt Blaze Feb 26

The supposed draft order (which apparently was written by MAGA activists, not the WH itself) calls for eliminating "voting machines" and no-excuse mail-in voting. "Voting machines" isn't defined, but presumably means electronic ballot tabulators, which are used in some form almost everywhere. And mail-in voting has become either the primary voting method or a very popular one in many states.

Matt Blaze Feb 26

Anyway, I don't think wild arm-flapping is a particularly useful response to this nonsense. Better, I think, to respond to specific proposals and orders rather than vague right-wing wish lists.

Matt Blaze Feb 26

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that there *are* real risks involving electronic vote tabulators, but also that there are statistically rigorous, efficient methods for assuring high-integrity elections even when untrustworthy technology is compromised. Search "risk-limiting audits" for details.

Matt Blaze Feb 26

As to the substance of Trump's claims about the 2020 election: there are technical weaknesses in parts of US election infrastructure, but there is simply no evidence that any US election outcome has been altered through them. And none of these proposed "safeguards" being floated by the administration actually addresses real problems that elections have. But imposing them would cause significant disruption. (Whether that is an intended outcome is a question I can't answer.)

Howard Chu @ Symas Feb 26

@mattblaze given the specificity of the measures, and the inevitability of their impact, you're not even willing to opine on the intent behind them?

It seems like saying "here's a living person, they're proposing to administer cyanide to them. This will be highly disruptive but I can't say if that's their intent."

Matt Blaze Feb 26

@hyc I guess I’m just not very good at mind reading.

Howard Chu @ Symas Feb 26

@mattblaze one has to wonder:
is there any possibility of a beneficial impact of their proposals?
is there any possibility they are unaware of the negative impact?

When both of those are vanishingly small, there's little else left to conclude.

Matt Blaze Feb 26

@hyc I said what I said, based on the information that I have. I hope this background information and context is helpful to some. My speculation on anything else is no more or less valid than anyone else’s, and so I see no particular reason to include it.

Robert [KJ5ELX]

One opinion and an opinionated question, with the obvious caveat that I'm not an expert in this nor do I play one on TV.

* I suspect red states like Texas will try to follow the executive order regardless because it's another way to punish more liberal enclaves like Austin and Houston.

* Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't paper still involved in most electronic voting for paper trail reasons? I've never seen it not have a paper component that the voter can see and read before or after.

Matt Blaze Feb 26

@FuturisticRobert States, which control their own election laws, are free to implement, via legislation, most any (reasonable) procedures they want, including most of the things on Trump's wish list. But that wouldn't be because of an "executive order"; it's just following some presidential suggestions.

Yes, there's paper almost everywhere, but the degree to which it's routinely looked at varies.

Robert [KJ5ELX]

@mattblaze makes sense. Thank you!

Woozle Hypertwin Feb 27

@mattblaze Right-wing playbook:

(1) sabotage $thing
(2) point out how broken $thing is (because of sabotage, but don't mention that -- or maybe blame it on Democrats)
(3) use brokenness as excuse to further sabotage $thing or just eliminate it altogether because it's obviously so bad.

(People keep falling for this partly because one of the broken $things is mass media news.)

Emanuele Balla Feb 27

@woozle @mattblaze 👆This. Exactly and nothing more than this. 👆

Jason Lefkowitz Feb 26

@mattblaze Yeah. My first thought is that this plot (if a plot it is) has dropped at a really weird time: too late to ride on Trump's immediate post-election seeming invulnerability; too soon to work as an excuse to occupy polling places at the last minute by surprise.

Of course all the people involved in these things are totally incompetent, so you can't rule out that they wanted it to come sooner or later but couldn't get their act together to make it happen

JohnMashey Feb 26

@mattblaze
Yes. I doubt that anyone who’s had mail-in voting would be real happy giving it up.

@mattblaze from what I know about US politics, I'm guessing that mail-in voting very popular primarily in States where the Democrats tend to win.

Matt Blaze Feb 26

@oblomov I don't think that's perfectly correlated, but most of the states that have it as a primary voting method tend to lean blue.

@mattblaze it's almost embarrassing that these correlations can be guessed simply by looking at what the Republican party is moving against 8-(

Uh-oh. Another "popcorn for us, frustration for Matt" megathread forecast for ... right now, apparently.

@mattblaze This is a preemptive action to cast doubt on the integrity of the election which may or may not be leveraged into further political shenanigans in the future. Many of my elderly relatives have completely bought into the 2020 stolen election narrative promoted by the current administration. Official actions like this EO or the recent seizure of ballots in Georgia provide some sort of back story to this narrative, an undercurrent that there is something wrong with our elections. In short, it’s a PSYOP.

Adrian Sanabria Feb 27

@mattblaze Seems like the complexity of 3000+ counties, each having their own machines and processes is maybe a natural, but unintended defense against most shenanigans?

CaliCarol Feb 27

These fools are not going to suddenly become competent, either.