maybe start with some guardrails?

- the following information can cause long term emotional damage. please consume responsibly

- a lot of it is predictions, which are hard, especially about the future, so end results might vary or have varied already

- the credibility and expertise of the authors in their area of research does not extend to statements they made in public on other issues (as i said, some went legit insane).

"What is #collapsology and what role does a “collapsologist” play?" ~bodhi-paul-chefurka

"“Collapsology” isn’t a formal field of scientific study. Instead, it’s a way of describing the open-source research of individuals who are concerned that society or civilization may collapse at some point, possibly in the near future, due to the convergence of various internal and external pressures. These pressures include environmental, ecological, economic and structural problems, among others.

Chief among the environmental problems is climate change, closely followed by ocean acidification. The main way in which climate change could cause social collapse is believed to be food supply issues caused by extreme weather events such as droughts and floods."

"What is #collapsology and what role does a “collapsologist” play?" ~bodhi-paul-chefurka

"Economic problems are generally framed in terms of increasing debt loads and widening income disparity.

Structural problems include the rise of authoritarian governments, and various issues related to complexity. Joseph Tainter has written an excellent short book on the collapse of complex societies in which he speculates that collapse might result from the diminishing marginal return or utility of solutions to increasingly complex problems."

"As all of these issues interact, collapse is usually seen as the result of the unexpected consequences of their interactions, rather than being ascribed to any single factor. Because of this, “collapsology” tends to be concerned with identifying these interactions. As a result, the field is highly speculative, and its practitioners tend to be prone to confirmation bias."

~bodhi-paul-chefurka

tainter - collapse of complex societies

https://www.sustainable.soltechdesigns.com/Joseph-A-Tainter-The-collapse-of-complex-societies.pdf

bardi* - toward a general theory of societal collapse

*sadly now an antivaxxer

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/330328475_Toward_a_General_Theory_of_Societal_Collapse_A_Biophysical_Examination_of_Tainter's_Model_of_the_Diminishing_Returns_of_Complexity

bardi* - the seneca effect: why growth is slow but collapse is rapid

*sadly now an antivaxxer

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321502158_The_Seneca_Effect_Why_Growth_is_Slow_but_Collapse_is_Rapid

catton - overshoot - the ecological basis for revolutionary change

https://monoskop.org/images/9/92/Catton_Jr_William_R_Overshoot_The_Ecological_Basis_of_Revolutionary_Change.pdf

lotka - contribution to the energetics of evolution

https://www.sustainable.soltechdesigns.com/lotka1922.pdf

odum - energy, ecology & economics

https://movimientotransicion.pbworks.com/f/IN+-+Energ%C3%ADa,+econom%C3%ADa+y+redistribuci%C3%B3n.pdf

meadows, forester - limits to growth

https://www.donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-Growth-digital-scan-version.pdf

smil - creating the twentieth century

https://de.scribd.com/document/557851159/Creating-the-Twentieth-Century-Vaclav-Smil

smil - transforming the twentieth century

https://oceanofpdf.com/authors/vaclav-smil/pdf-epub-transforming-the-twentieth-century-technical-innovations-and-their-consequences-technical-innovations-and-their-consequences-v-2-download/

campbell and laherrère - the end of cheap oil

https://jayhansonsdieoff.net/files/campbell/endofcheapoil.pdf

@kali With the advent of electric vehicles the demand for oil is starting to trend downward. That will invalidate any analysis that assumes steady or increasing demand.

If production costs rise as the supply begins to dwindle, and at the same time demand falls, reducing the price, the oil companies are going to be stuck between a rock and a hard place.

I expect to see wild fluctuations in the price as companies fail which temporarily reduces supply, causing price spikes, followed by price drops as more electrification is adopted (spurred, in part, by the increasingly erratic cost of oil).

@kali
I had skim read the paper before commenting. Having read it more thoroughly, my comment stands.

The paper does not account for falling demand beyond that caused by higher prices. It has been overtaken by EVs and other renewable energy advances.