kalii wanted to do a #systemsthinking & #collapseology reading list, but having a hard time.
so many of these, smart, well educated & networked people went insane in very sad & creative ways.
a coincidence? idk anymore.
*SIGH*
maybe start with some guardrails?
- the following information can cause long term emotional damage. please consume responsibly
- a lot of it is predictions, which are hard, especially about the future, so end results might vary or have varied already
- the credibility and expertise of the authors in their area of research does not extend to statements they made in public on other issues (as i said, some went legit insane).
"What is #collapsology and what role does a “collapsologist” play?" ~bodhi-paul-chefurka
"“Collapsology” isn’t a formal field of scientific study. Instead, it’s a way of describing the open-source research of individuals who are concerned that society or civilization may collapse at some point, possibly in the near future, due to the convergence of various internal and external pressures. These pressures include environmental, ecological, economic and structural problems, among others.
Chief among the environmental problems is climate change, closely followed by ocean acidification. The main way in which climate change could cause social collapse is believed to be food supply issues caused by extreme weather events such as droughts and floods."
"What is #collapsology and what role does a “collapsologist” play?" ~bodhi-paul-chefurka
"Economic problems are generally framed in terms of increasing debt loads and widening income disparity.
Structural problems include the rise of authoritarian governments, and various issues related to complexity. Joseph Tainter has written an excellent short book on the collapse of complex societies in which he speculates that collapse might result from the diminishing marginal return or utility of solutions to increasingly complex problems."
"As all of these issues interact, collapse is usually seen as the result of the unexpected consequences of their interactions, rather than being ascribed to any single factor. Because of this, “collapsology” tends to be concerned with identifying these interactions. As a result, the field is highly speculative, and its practitioners tend to be prone to confirmation bias."
~bodhi-paul-chefurka
tainter - collapse of complex societies
https://www.sustainable.soltechdesigns.com/Joseph-A-Tainter-The-collapse-of-complex-societies.pdf
bardi* - toward a general theory of societal collapse
*sadly now an antivaxxer
bardi* - the seneca effect: why growth is slow but collapse is rapid
*sadly now an antivaxxer
catton - overshoot - the ecological basis for revolutionary change
lotka - contribution to the energetics of evolution
odum - energy, ecology & economics
meadows, forester - limits to growth
https://www.donellameadows.org/wp-content/userfiles/Limits-to-Growth-digital-scan-version.pdf
smil - creating the twentieth century
https://de.scribd.com/document/557851159/Creating-the-Twentieth-Century-Vaclav-Smil
smil - transforming the twentieth century
[PDF] [EPUB] Transforming the Twentieth Century: Technical Innovations and Their Consequences: Technical Innovations and Their Consequences v. 2 Download
Download Book "Transforming the Twentieth Century: Technical Innovations and Their Consequences: Technical Innovations and Their Consequences v. 2" by Author "Vaclav Smil" in [PDF] [EPUB]. Original Title ISBN "9780195168754" published on "2006-1-1". Get Full eBook File name "Transforming_the_Twentieth_Century_-_Vaclav_Smil.pdf .epub" Format Complete Free. Genres: "History, Nonfiction, Science, Technology".
campbell and laherrère - the end of cheap oil
https://jayhansonsdieoff.net/files/campbell/endofcheapoil.pdf
garrett & keen's "forget the flame" study
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237672
Past world economic production constrains current energy demands: Persistent scaling with implications for economic growth and climate change mitigation
Climate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, we describe the contribution of inertia to future trends. Drawing from thermodynamic principles, and using 38 years of available statistics between 1980 to 2017, we find a constant scaling between current rates of world primary energy consumption E ( t ) and the historical time integral W of past world inflation-adjusted economic production Y, or W ( t ) = ∫ 0 t Y ( t ′ ) d t ′. In each year, over a period during which both E and W more than doubled, the ratio of the two remained nearly unchanged, that is λ = E ( t ) ( t ) / W ( t ) = 5 . 9 ± 0 . 1 Gigawatts per trillion 2010 US dollars. What this near constant implies is that current growth trends in energy consumption, population, and standard of living, perhaps counterintuitively, are determined by past innovations that have improved the economic production efficiency, or enabled use of less energy to transform raw materials into the makeup of civilization. Current observed growth rates agree well with predictions derived from available historical data. Future efforts to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions are likely also to be constrained by the contributions of past innovation to growth. Assuming no further efficiency gains, options look limited to rapid decarbonization of energy consumption through sustained implementation of at least one Gigawatt of renewable or nuclear power capacity per day. Alternatively, with continued reliance on fossil fuels, civilization could shift to a steady-state economy, one that devotes economic production exclusively to maintining ongoing metabolic needs rather than to material expansion. Even if such actions could be achieved immediately, energy consumption would continue at its current level, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations would only begin to balance natural sinks at concentrations exceeding 500 ppmv.
parrique - decoupling debunked
https://eeb.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Decoupling-Debunked.pdf
smil - why growth must end
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/sep/21/vaclav-smil-interview-growth-must-end-economists
pfeiffer - eating fossil fuels
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2003-10-02/eating-fossil-fuels/
Eating Fossil Fuels
As Peak Oil and its effects become a raging national controversy it's time everyone reads the story that puts the most serious implications of Peak Oil and Gas into perspective. Your biggest problem is not that your SUV might go hungry, it's that you and your children might go hungry.
smil has written so many books on supply chains, if you want a more recent one you will have to buy it, i don't find a pdf.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17941760-making-the-modern-world
*SIGH* dimitri orlov. he is one of those who went full tankie accelerationist. smart guy. so sad.
https://49thshelf.com/Books/T/The-Five-Stages-of-Collapse-PDF
should i share the stuff of the person i have been most angry at in my entire life for telling USers "it doesn't matter who they vote for" and inviting jill stein campaign shills to his podcast few weeks before the 2026 election?
it is sort of important.
anyway the person who wrote this doesn't exist anymore in my book.
*SIGH*. here u go: https://un-denial.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/reality-blind-by-nate-hagens-and-dj-white-2021.pdf
ocratato@kali With the advent of electric vehicles the demand for oil is starting to trend downward. That will invalidate any analysis that assumes steady or increasing demand.
If production costs rise as the supply begins to dwindle, and at the same time demand falls, reducing the price, the oil companies are going to be stuck between a rock and a hard place.
I expect to see wild fluctuations in the price as companies fail which temporarily reduces supply, causing price spikes, followed by price drops as more electrification is adopted (spurred, in part, by the increasingly erratic cost of oil).
@ocratato can you please not be a replyguy/mansplainer. read the books and comment on the content. thanks.
@kali
I had skim read the paper before commenting. Having read it more thoroughly, my comment stands.
The paper does not account for falling demand beyond that caused by higher prices. It has been overtaken by EVs and other renewable energy advances.
@ocratato none of that is the topic of the thread. learn to talk less and listen more or stick to software. you are bloked.
@ocratato also i reported you for spam. bc that is what this is. it has 0 to do with the subject matter. 0. you just wanna sound smart on the internet. show me your scientific contribution to systems science of shut up seriously now.
Rob Ricci