Emeritus Prof Christopher MayFeb 1

Hmmm.... I think we can safely say Labour are rattled by the surge in support for the Green Party of England & Wales.

They have accused the GPEW of 'cowardice' for not parachuting in Zak Polanski as candidate & rather choosing (although they don't say this) a popular local resident (who lives just outside the constituency).

A classic case of judging your opponent by your own (warped) standards.

#politics #GortonAndDenton
h/t Observer

Show threadClaire McNabFeb 1

@ChrisMayLA6 I assume that the #Starmtroopers calculated they had a binary choice between two packages of outcomes:

A/ hold the GM mayoralty, lose Gorton, block #Burnham's coup

B/ lose the GM mayoralty, hold Gorton, get defenestrated by #Burnham.

Not being keen on defenestration, they chose package A. So they have selected a corporate lobbyist as #GortonAndDenton candidate to be eaten alive, but they keep their jobs in #Number10 for a bit longer.

Show threadEmeritus Prof Christopher MayFeb 1

@2legged

sounds about right - boosted

Show threadProjectFearlessness
@ChrisMayLA6 @2legged
From Manchester, I would say the mistake a lot of people are making in their analysis of the Gorton by election is not realising the local Labour party is viewed separately to the national Labour party. We can see that in how popular Burnham still is. Remember that Stogia is a local Labour councillor selected by the local Labour party. If you don't factor that into your analysis, you're not going to get it right.
Feb 1 at 11:00amWeb
Show threadGareth KitchenFeb 1
@ProjectFearlessness
So more like the Stroud set-up then, I guess. But most people just are not aware of local nuance. The national picture seems to drown out most things local in my humble experience. It's probably much tighter than the bookies have it.
@ChrisMayLA6 @2legged
Show threadClaire McNabFeb 1

@gruff Voters in #GortonAndDenton are going to be made well aware that the "local" Labour candidate is a corporate lobbyist: https://mastodon.ie/@2legged/115994580434207508

That #VoteLabourGetFatcat problem will be big.

@ProjectFearlessness @ChrisMayLA6

Claire McNab (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image #YCMTSU: Who is the #LabourParty candidate #AngelikiStogia for the #GortonAndDenton #byelection? #Stogia is Stakeholder Engagement and Communications lead for #Arup, focusing in finding funding and state support for private Energy and Rail contracts. https://www.arup.com/contact-us/angeliki-stogia/ The #Starmtroopers have really done it now. Faced with strong challenges from Greens #GPEW on the left and populist #ReformUK on the right, Labour chose a lobbyist for big business. Vote Labour, get #fatcat. #YCMTSU #ukpol

mastodon.ie
Show threadChristine Burns MBE 🏳️‍⚧️📚⧖Feb 1
@2legged @gruff @ProjectFearlessness @ChrisMayLA6 She’s a councillor for a neighbouring ward so we see a lot of her.
Show threadProjectFearlessnessFeb 1
@christineburns @2legged @gruff @ChrisMayLA6
Now, your opinion I do want to hear. What do you think of Angeliki Stogia? London stitch up? Corporate lobbyist?
Show threadChristine Burns MBE 🏳️‍⚧️📚⧖Feb 1
@ProjectFearlessness @2legged @gruff @ChrisMayLA6 I was talking to a neighbour just now who had a very low opinion based on the feeling that, on the council, she hasn’t followed through on promises made. Personally I’ve found her OK as a person to talk to but that’s no basis to pick an MP. In fact I did wonder whether she is the paper candidate — selected to have a party name on the ballot but not expected to even come close.
Show threadJuneSim63 💚Feb 1

@christineburns @ProjectFearlessness @2legged @gruff @ChrisMayLA6

https://bsky.app/profile/patthepublican2.bsky.social/post/3mds6m23ejs25

patthepublican2 (@patthepublican2.bsky.social)

🚨 50% of Labour voters (17pts) have walked away. Where did they go? 🔴Lab ->🟢Grn: 6.2pts [ 36% ] 🔴Lab ->🟠Lib: 4.2pts [ 24% ] 🔴Lab ->➡️Ref: 3.5pts [ 20% ] 🔴Lab ->🔵Con: 1.4pts [ 8% ] 70%+ of defecting Labour voters have moved *left*. Via @YouGov, 14 Dec-9 Jan

Bluesky Social
Show threadProjectFearlessnessFeb 1
@junesim63 @christineburns @2legged @gruff @ChrisMayLA6
I'd be wary of transposing national polls like this onto a local by election like Gorton. This doesn't account for the strong showing of the Workers Party in the area. Also. if we apply this poll to the 2024 results in Gorton, Labour still win. It doesn't tell us anything useful.
Show threadProjectFearlessnessFeb 1
@christineburns @2legged @gruff @ChrisMayLA6
Well, yes, after Burnham was blocked, any Labour candidate would struggle in Gorton. I'd agree that Stogia may be a paper candidate, but that's separate to the issue we were talking to.
Show threadProjectFearlessnessFeb 1
@gruff @2legged @ChrisMayLA6
Yes, it's much too close to make any confident predictions at this point. And we don't even know who the Workers Party candidate is yet. It's between Shahbaz Sharwar, who is a really popular local councillor, and George Galloway, who is, well, George Galloway.
Show threadClaire McNabFeb 1

@ProjectFearlessness But everyone knows that #AngelikaStogia's candidacy is the outcome of a London stitchup. It will be hard for her to play the "real mancunian" card when she comes with a big #Starmer label.

@ChrisMayLA6