GEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for GeopoliticsJan 11
1- #Iran’s role as #Israel’s “useful foil” no longer seems to generate the same strategic value it once did. In Western capitals, support for #Iranian uprisings has typically remained cautious—often limited to statements and symbolic pressure rather than the kind of decisive backing that could...
Show threadGEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for GeopoliticsJan 11
2- ...backing that could genuinely shift the internal balance of power. The latest unrest also appears less forceful than earlier protest waves that at least carried the potential to shake the regime, even though economic conditions are not dramatically worse than before.
Show threadGEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for GeopoliticsJan 11
3- Yet the broader geopolitical context is ripe for a different kind of Western play today: fostering a #Turkic–#Sunni hardliner axis—channeled through #Turkey and the wider Turkic space (#OTIC), reinforced by #Saudi-backed Salafi networks spanning #Syria, the #Caucasus, and Central Asia, and...
Show threadGEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for GeopoliticsJan 11
4- ...anchored by #Pakistan as a strategic hinge—to contain #China and #Russia (even #India) without putting boots on the ground. In this context, the West—especially the US—is more likely to favor a “manageable” reformist drawn from within the system than an exiled restoration project
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5- ...such as #Pahlavi. A regime-adjacent reformist like President Masoud #Pezeshkian — an #Azeri ( #Turk) with a #Kurdish maternal background—fits that preference better than polarizing or untested alternatives.
Jan 11 at 11:46pmWeb
Show threadGEOPOLIST - Istanbul Center for GeopoliticsJan 11
6-His statements since the latest protests began suggest he is positioning himself for precisely this role: speaking the language of reform and national reconciliation, while keeping change within boundaries. As promised, the full op-ed is coming shortly.