sirwobin
mhoyeTo spell this out clearly, the reason RAM has quadrupled in price is that a huge quantity of RAM that hasn't been produced yet has been bought with money that doesn't exist to populate GPUs that also haven't been produced to go in datacenters that haven't been built powered by infrastructure that may never exist to meet a demand that doesn't exist at all to make profit margins that mathematically can't exist while economists talk about this thing they call the "rational markets hypothesis".
Gabriele Svelto@mhoye yes, that's pretty much what happened with the important exception of things being "sold". Nothing was actually sold. Only letters of intents were signed. No money changed hands, no contracts where drawn or signed, but prices were definitely manipulated. The rest is the usual smoke & mirrors we get when dealing with AI.
@gabrielesvelto God. Ok, I've added "money that doesn't exist" to the litany.
Jeremy Kahnif this were generally a "hypothesis" then this suggests that perhaps we are ready to adopt the null hypothesis instead
@trochee @gabrielesvelto The rational in "rational markets hypothesis" is a use of the term "rational" that I think @grimalkina would find... entirely familiar, even as she was picking it up with tongs and putting it in the bin outside with the rest of the trash.
@mhoye @gabrielesvelto @grimalkina
I'm quite sure that's the same "rational" as in Yudkowsky's "Rationalism"
Linebyline@gabrielesvelto To be fair I've never attempted to compute Putin to his final digit. :P
Osma Suominen@Linebyline
yes, that's a difficult com-putin-g exercise...
DerPumu (he/him)@gabrielesvelto @trochee @mhoye @grimalkina rational numbers. Only the tiniest fraction of those plans will ever be realized
Ignazio Palmisano@trochee @mhoye @gabrielesvelto @grimalkina I like "rational" as i "rational numbers can be expressed as fractions" and someone has been naughty and slipped in a zero under the line
WesDym@trochee I grew up with a somewhat different meaning, but in the last 20-30 years I've come to assume that most people using the term 'rationalism' online mean something more like 'psychotic libertarian'.
George B
Riley S. Faelan
Pete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫@trochee @mhoye @gabrielesvelto
The Keynes hypothesis maybe "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
smolwaffle@mhoye
Financialization at its "best", eh? Just like with real estate the financialization of one thing creates scarcity of another, more necessary to life and happiness
@gabrielesvelto
Financialization at its "best", eh? Just like with real estate the financialization of one thing creates scarcity of another, more necessary to life and happiness
@gabrielesvelto
James 🦉 #FBPE 🇪🇺@gabrielesvelto @mhoye Hmm, where've I heard that before? Oh, yes 🌷
Bernd Petrovitsch🔴🔴🔴♂️🏳️🌈🇦🇹🇪🇺@gabrielesvelto @mhoye IOW it's almost all only speculation ...
Uriel Fanelli@gabrielesvelto @mhoye is named "futures market". No letter of intentions to share, it's a commodity market.
@uriel @mhoye I'm not sure what you mean. This is Samsung official comms on the topic:
> OpenAI, Samsung Electronics, Samsung SDS, Samsung C&T and Samsung Heavy Industries today announced a letter of intent (LOI) [...]
And this is SK Hynix:
https://eng.sk.com/news/sk-group-partners-with-openai-to-advance-global-ai-infrastructure
> SK Group announced today that SK Chairman Chey Tae-won and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman met at SK headquarters in Seoul to sign a Letter of Intent (LOI) [...]
This is all written on water at this point.
@gabrielesvelto @mhoye you are discussing a strategic agreement, I am discussing on how is actually done. So, even if it was not only intent, you can't find there what you are looking for. Either they buy stock options from the market, or they buy futures for some commodity. Bit this is now shown in the strategic paper, to avoid market speculations.
@uriel @mhoye price manipulation is definitely happening on the futures market, however no one buys 40% of the DRAM market yearly output there. That's 10s of billions worth of DRAM. You'd need contracts with the vendors themselves to get that much and Samsung/SK hynix would need to disclose such a large contract because they're publicly traded companies. And all of this is predicated on OpenAI having that kind of money, which OpenAI doesn't have.
@gabrielesvelto @mhoye
the cat of Warren Buffet can s**t 10 billions in the litter, today. 10 billions are nothing for many huge funds. If this is not sold as commodity, they they will exchange stock options, or even some derivative. And again, this will be decided in secret. So, once they want to partner, you can consider it done, lot of tools exists. Which is my point: intents are enough. Other people will decide how.
Futures, stocks, derivatives, whatever. The intent is to do it, and they will do it.
the cat of Warren Buffet can s**t 10 billions in the litter, today. 10 billions are nothing for many huge funds. If this is not sold as commodity, they they will exchange stock options, or even some derivative. And again, this will be decided in secret. So, once they want to partner, you can consider it done, lot of tools exists. Which is my point: intents are enough. Other people will decide how.
Futures, stocks, derivatives, whatever. The intent is to do it, and they will do it.
Clueless by SamGuillotines for a better world (@[email protected])
Me: The Sopranos is the story of the same $200,000 changing hands over and over again AI Hucksters: what if we scaled that up though?
stepplAh, pure speculations! Lets see if the next $$$ crisis comes once the AI bubble bursts.
etsy@gabrielesvelto @mhoye while it's all the same functionally, let's not pretend like credit isn't a normal thing, lmao.
@etsyy @gabrielesvelto a single creditor’s actions wildly distorting the present day market by speculatively announcing their intention to buy two fifths of the entire market of a product in the future, where their ability to use that product at all is itself speculative, is not normal, no.
@gabrielesvelto In many commodity markets, you can genuinely buy a future long before the actual commodity is produced, often with money that you will only have in the future.
Have I told you about booty futures sold by pirates at the Harardheere Stock Exchange before they even go to the sea?
cwicseolfor@riley @gabrielesvelto @mhoye I hadn’t heard of this. Futures are old hat to me but - when I read “In the absence of formal governance structures, Somali pirates have created a sophisticated shadow economy that almost mirrors legitimate markets in surprising ways” - UHHHH. Uh, maybe the fact that literal pirates reinvented this system is not an endorsement of it as beneficent, actually. “Somali pirates, long viewed solely through the lens of criminality, offer a compelling – if controversial – case study in free market principles and entrepreneurial spirit.” Yikes? Yeah, yikes.
@riley @gabrielesvelto @mhoye Not the first time the comparison’s been made, but …
https://youtu.be/DJBX9r7zoXE?t=97
https://youtu.be/DJBX9r7zoXE?t=97
"So, Peter, You've Become a Pirate" | Hook (1991).
@cwicseolfor Hey, pirate cultures have been notoriously corporate-like since the golden age. Recall that all the share-holding pirates tended to have a vote for the captaincy, and, save for some narrow exceptions such as during an active plundering episode, it was pretty common for pirates to have the right to call for a shareholders' meeting to discuss matters all the way up to disbanding the enterprise and/or dismissing the captain and electing another one. But I guess the "legitimate" corporations didn't like the similarities, so fictitious depictions of pirate business tend to always project the sorts of things that corporations like to think themselves as not being like upon the pirates.
@riley @gabrielesvelto @mhoye none of the organizational principles really surprise me, it’s more the nakedly high enthusiasm when there’s no plausible deniability about the targets of said enthusiasm being lawless, at least when those laws pertain to violence. I date to a period in which at least they TRIED to pretend otherwise, the farce of genteel and elegant murder.
@cwicseolfor @riley @gabrielesvelto
I think you might be looking at this backwards.
@mhoye Are you suggesting that stock markets might have pirated the pirates' advanced schemes of plunder redistribution without paying the proper royalties for copying them?
@mhoye @riley @gabrielesvelto Those quotes are from an article I found discussing the aforementioned Somali pirates, who I learned about from the above toot, in glowing, enthusiastic, and exotifying terms, as if they've proven some Universal Law of Economics, and therefore the Natural Moral Rectitude of Derivative Plundering (and very much NOT as if maybe they're modern humans who have as much chance of inventing a system we'd already invented as of *reading about such a system on the internet,* not to mention criminals.)
@cwicseolfor Hey, it's not like there's much difference between exploiting the seafarers and exploiting the villagers. Just that the seafarers will have more power to complain.
Moss@pearofdoom Well, now I HAVE to post this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk&list=RDd0nERTFo-Sk&start_radio=1
Fear the Boom and Bust: Keynes vs. Hayek - The Original Economics Rap Battle!
Ⓐ Consciousness Revolutions 🏴
JakobT
The_Sun
The_Sun (@[email protected])
Attached: 1 image @[email protected] If only there was a existing fusion receiver that was ultra cheap, mass produced ,readily available, that could be owned by the people and allow them to be free from electricity companies. Rather than financial grifters promoting bullshit that doesn't exist. #energy #Solar #PV https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-and-batteries-smash-records-in-midst-of-pre-christmas-heatwave/
Paul Cantrell
noplasticshower@mhoye ha ha ha ha ha
@noplasticshower In that killing-joke sense, yeah.
fraca7@mhoye To be fair modern economics have always been built on a very unstable ground (ie pure bullshit)
Benaresh@fraca7 @mhoye Reminds me of the Card/Krueger Study on minimum wage that concluded that raising the min-wage was good.
They got so much hate for a now widely accepted study and to this day free-market "economists" try to debunk it.
Or as John Kenneth Galbraith put it:
“Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.”
Tyrone Slothrop@mhoye wait... that's just a supersized pump-and-dump scheme
Irenes (many)
Space Quest Historian
iwein@slothrop yes, and it's so obvious, once the moving parts are visible, that I'm sure the people that made a career in this, and designed the scheme, know exactly what they do.
Maybe someone(s) is timing their short on oil very precisely. AI is the trigger, the stock market is the gun, fossil is the bullet. And the rest is smoke and mirrors.
When the trigger is pulled, our enemies will be short on fossil and long on weapons at just the right time. Or I'm a conspiracy theorist.
LinuxUserGD 
Armin H. aus F.@HugeGameArtGD @mhoye he's totally passing this off as his own creation
Justin 🇻🇦@mhoye So if none of that starts existing what happens to the supply? Does the market get flooded with all the RAM that was supposed to go to the AI companies?
@jforseth210 @mhoye I, for one, am looking forward to my 128GB & Nvidia Graphics Card included with every happy meal. 😛
MrGrumpyMonkey@jforseth210 @mhoye Wrong sort of RAM. The AI stuff needs some plain DDR5 for the servers that run the accelerators, but the accelerators themselves use GDDR or HBM RAM. It comes off the same fabs, so they compete for fab capacity, but you can't repurpose the chips for consumer use.