Heaviest (and probably brightest, until Reflect Orbital's awful mirror) satellite ever is supposed to launch sometime tonight. I hate AST SpaceMobile only slightly less than I hate Reflect Orbital.

https://www.space.com/space-exploration/launches-spacecraft/indian-rocket-launch-bluebird-6-satellite-ast-spacemobile

One news article suggested that there was a chance of a collision during the launch window so they had to shift it?! Need a CRASH Clock for launches now too, apparently.

Watch Indian rocket launch record-breaking BlueBird 6 smartphone satellite to orbit tonight

Liftoff is scheduled for 10:24 p.m. EST tonight (Dec. 23).

Space

Here's a (messy, quick, not peer-reviewed) animation I threw together* using one of AST SpaceMobile's requested orbital configurations. These AST satellites are so bright that if you were standing in downtown Toronto on the summer solstice, in the night sky you'd be able to see the moon, Venus, and a handful of AST SpaceMobile satellites all night long.

*the code was part of a peer-reviewed paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/ac341b

RE: https://mastodon.social/@sundogplanets/115748537218476769

Here's a nice, angry op-ed I got invited to write for Nature about AST SpaceMobile's first stupidly bright satellite a couple years ago: https://rdcu.be/drQOU

And just a reminder, if you're half as pissed off about stupidly bright satellites as I am, DarkSky International has an open letter to Reflect Orbital and their investors that you can sign here:

Are direct-to-cell satellite connections useful? Yes. Are the benefits for a small handful of people who can afford access to those satellites worth the increased collision risks in orbit, the atmospheric pollution from launching and reentering all of them, the ground casualty risks from reentering them, and the light/radio pollution they cause? I would argue, no. Invest in better remote ground-based infrastructure! This scramble for direct-to-cell sats is NOT going to work.

Damn, looks like the freaking huge AST satellite launched successfully. I guess we'll find out soon how incredibly fucking bright and radio-loud it is 😭

https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:vqtp5dj2o6rqnge56sz2db5a/post/3mapcxxetwk2o

Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589.bsky.social)

LAUNCH at 0325 UTC Dec 24 of India's LVM3 flight M6 with the 6-tonne AST Space Mobile BlueBird-6 satellite

Bluesky Social

...and how hardy it is to debris hits. That's a big cross-section: 2,400 square feet, a bit bigger than a basketball half-court. This paper https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027311772030644X suggests 1 hit energetic enough to penetrate 1 mm of aluminum per m^2/yr from debris and 1 from micrometeorites at AST's altitude, so about 1 hit per day. Good luck...

(Especially given a much smaller Starlink satellite and the similar cross-section Chinese space station both likely got hit by debris in the last few days)

@sundogplanets Be pretty satisfying if it got destroyed right away, but that causes *other* problems.
@sundogplanets I've heard that some of the ISS people are starting to wonder if increased rates of debris strikes are due to Starlink launches, but I haven't seen any releases on it yet.
@wikkit @sundogplanets I once heard the ISS structure people wonder if the ISS control people were deliberately exciting resonance modes. So grain of salt, even if the conclusion's as believable as "more sats -> more debris"
Andreas Hänel

Gestern Abend konnte ich erstmals 3 BlueBird-Satelliten von AST SpaceMobile beobachten. Für Furore sorgte der Test-Vorgänger Bluewalker3, der wegen seiner 64 m² großen Antenne so hell wie helle...

@cosmos4u You can't "protect the skies" when you are launching 0th magnitude-bright satellites ☹️ I don't even know what a coordination agreement would look like with NSF (also I am still grumpy that the text of the coordination agreements is considered "proprietary" and can't be shared)
@cosmos4u Sorry that all sounded very grumpy, the grumpiness is not directed at you! Thank you for sharing these links!

@sundogplanets @cosmos4u
Do you have the size of the solar arrays for Starlink v2 and v3 satellites?

For v3, one website states a 60x7m size, which is almost 2x the size of the 223 sq m AST phased array.

And presumably, there will lot more Starlink v3s than AST Bluebirds. What a nightmare :(

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/03/spacex-starship-launched-starlink-gen-3-unfolded-nearly-as-wide-as-the-space-station.html

SpaceX Starship Starlink Gen 3 Will Be Nearly as Wide as the Space Station | NextBigFuture.com

The SpaceX Starship launching tomorrow will enable a new generation of larger Gen 3 Starlink satellites. They will weigh over 2 tons and will unfold to a

NextBigFuture.com
@AkaSci @sundogplanets @cosmos4u
God fucking damn it I don't have the energy for this tonight: fml.
Like what are we even supposed to do against this shit
@sundogplanets Another option is long-endurance autonomous aircraft.
@michaelgemar Yeah, I keep hearing about this. I'm not convinced it would be better, but I don't know a whole lot about it yet...
@sundogplanets This kind of solution would at least avoid vehicles indiscriminately orbiting the entire planet — atmospheric vehicles could be deployed in specific, highly local areas. I’m not sure how practical this approach is at the moment, however.

@michaelgemar @sundogplanets I remember that for a while project "loon" was trying to provide remote Internet connectivity using high altitude balloons. Seems a lot simpler to me since they can come down when they need repair, but what do I know, that project was discontinued for some reason or another.

Maybe it's because airspace is heavily regulated by the country that owns it but no one has that control in space.

@michaelgemar @sundogplanets go looks at HIBS and HAPS. Japan especially is pushing the technology in that (air) space
@sundogplanets We had a need for a handheld satphone at one place I worked because of the remoteness of location where things were being installed. An iSatPhone Pro that used the Inmarsat geo constellation worked. Iridium could also have done the job too. I doubt there really is a need for the leo spacejunk doing direct-to-cell, other than bragging rights, and the ability to "borrow" earth/space spectrum for terrestrial use (like LightSquared/Ligado tried).
@ingram Agree! There are internet providers that work from geosynchronous orbit (which is highly regulated, yay) and from higher orbits with fewer sats (like iridium - though that constellation has some issues with flares and radio frequency leakage, it was only a handful of satellites)

@sundogplanets GEO used to be a civilised place, but things are changing. The rendezvous & proximity operations that the US, Russia and China are doing do risk other operators. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-us-and-chinese-satellites-are-dogfighting-in-orbit/ar-AA1SAnEY

The whole ITU approach to orbital fillings needs to change, but it's unlikely because just like every other consensus-based regulation there's no enforcement when a bully decides that 'might make right".

MSN

@sundogplanets MEO is a nice sweet spot for throughput and latency vs number of spacecraft required. The O3b system was trialled at work and was impressive. GEO services (NBN SkyMuster is the main one for outback Australia) are acceptable for streaming, but do suck for anything interactive (but still much better than the shortwave radio alternative). Hopefully higher orbit LEO operators with fewer sats can out compete the incumbent.
@sundogplanets i’d argue they should be limited to cover remote regions and war zones to lessen the risk for negative impacts, and therefore not operated by private entities