As usual, Labour are offering crumbs;
The absolute minimum they could possibly do without repeating 2023's failures, of principle *and* strategy, and promising nothing. Like their GST-off-this-and-that plan this is a patch on a hemorrhage, dressed up as ambitious policy.
If this is typical of what Labour plan to offer for 2026, they deserve to lose. Even if the rest of us don't deserve 3 more years of CLuxon's clowns.
Your thinking is far too binary:
*Labour deserves to lose to Greens and become the junior coalition partner in the next government.
@jeremy_pm
> Labour deserves to lose to Greens
We can all dream. In 1996 I really thought the Cannabis party would get 5%. In 2014 I thought the Internet MANA alliance would get 5%. And sure I'd love to think the Greens could leapfrog Labour in 2026.
Never say never. But the polling trend for 2026 is *not* looking promising.
I do agree with you both (and Chlöe) that this is the long game now. Labour are a spent force, hamstrung by a neoliberal rump they can't seem to shake off.
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@lightweight @jeremy_pm All I can say to that is, good luck. I'll be happy if that surge in UK Greens polling translates into winning seats in an FPP election. I'd be thrilled if the same Green surge happened here. But I see little sign of that so far, and I'm not holding my breath.
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Especially while we've got an ultraconservative regime engaged in active voter suppression. In a transparently cynical attempt to keep themselves in power at any cost.
If they succeed, this will hurt small parties more. So Labour are unlikely to put up more than finger-wagging resistence to it. Even though they could probably defeat it if they gave their blessing to affiliated unions to mobilise against it en masse.
Now if the Greens could get the missing million on the roll early ...
Side note: with all due respect to Marama, I think she'd give the Greens their best chance of eclipsing Labour by standing down as co-leader. Soon enough for a new Māori co-leader to step up before the end of the year.
I went to the Greens budget roadshop in The Tron with Marama as MC. She clearly still cares but she's just as clearly exhausted and dialing it in. She needs to let herself rest, and make space for someone who's firing on all cylinders. The caucus is not short of Māori talent.
@lightweight @jeremy_pm One more thing, if you look at the trend across all polls since the start of the year;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Graph_of_opinion_polls_by_party..svg
... both Greens and TPM (and TOP) have been steadily losing ground, to the benefit of Labour, NZ First and the Nats. The tide looks to be going out on progressive parties in NZ right now. Also, 3 of the last 5 polls do show the left block ahead, but only 1 by more than the margin of error.
A week is a long time in politics and all that, but ...
Just thought I would share this to help you battle your understandable cynicism on the prospects of the UK Greens and the potential for their success to advance the #NZPol Greens in their pursuit of a larger slice of the pie in NZ’s 2026 election.
TBF, the political situation in Aotearoa NZ is quite different from the UK both in electoral system and party relations.
NZ Labour and Greens are quite aligned particularly with both parties understanding that they will have to work together in coalition should they be in a position to form a government after election. Whereas UK politics under FPP is very cut throat.
The hope I have is firstly there’s a change of government but also that the Greens are in a position to have more power and influence in the next #NZPol govt.
@jeremy_pm
> NZ Labour and Greens are quite aligned
In what parallel universe?! They were briefly aligned. After Robertson, Little and Ardern dragged Labour back to the centre-left, and Shaw and Winston dragged their parties to the right economically (remember Robertson and Shaw's neoliberal Budget Responsibility Rules?).
Since Hipkins it's been back to BaU; spineless, centre-right pandering. Bringing us right back to the jumping off point;
As usual, Labour are offering crumbs; https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/577129/what-doctors-landlords-and-economists-make-of-labour-s-tax-plan The absolute minimum they could possibly do without repeating 2023's failures, of principle *and* strategy, and promising nothing. Like their GST-off-this-and-that plan this is a patch on a hemorrhage, dressed up as ambitious policy. If this is typical of what Labour plan to offer for 2026, they deserve to lose. Even if the rest of us don't deserve 3 more years of CLuxon's clowns. #NZPolitics
Aligned in as much as them having to work together and find areas of common ground.
@jeremy_pm
> Aligned in as much as them having to work together and find areas of common ground
Greens are good at that. Hell, they even managed to get a few policy concessions from the Key regime.
But don't kid yourself that 2025 Labour has much in common policy-wise with the Greens. As I say, much work to do, some of it involving working with Labour's grassroots to help them pull their party back to the centre-left. Again 🙄
@jeremy_pm
> Just thought I would share this
I'm aware, since this is exactly what I was commenting on in the post you're replying to. Read it again.
Yes I understand you’re hopeful that the UK Green’s rise in popularity translates to an improved ranking for NZ Greens, I was just sharing because I found UK Greens now outpolling both UK Labour and Conservatives is something of a dynamic power shift.
@jeremy_pm
> UK Greens now outpolling both UK Labour and Conservatives is something of a dynamic power shift
It will be, *if* it translates into winning seats in FPP races. The current regime is deeply unpopular with its own base, and the clownshow of the Tory government is still too raw for protest votes to move there. So UK Greens (and Reform) are surging in polls.
I'm not saying that *can't* translate into seats come the next election, I'm just saying it's not a given.
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Third parties got huge percentages of support in pre-MMP polls. Especially when the public started to sour on first term governments. But it never translated into more than a handful of seats under FPP, and never as high a party vote as those polls once we actually got proportional represention.
Be hopeful. Celebrate the small victories. Just keep in mind there is still an immense amount of work to do before we defeat the NatACTs in the court of public opinion.
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Fair comment, Labour under Kid Starver is so far removed from the party’s origins it is unrecognisable and as you say the Conservatives have left themselves unelectable after years of austerity under Tory rule.
The biggest threat in UK politics is the rise of the fascist Reform Party which, as you point out, have received populist support not unlike the Greens on the back of Labour and Conservatives collapse.
@strypey I generally agree with you that there's little sign of a Green surge in New Zealand right now. We're holding up well, as we have been for years, but Labour can offer warmed-over neoliberal nonsense and still rely on 2-3 times the votes.
However… I also think this isn't anything major we're doing wrong, just a general complacency in our society fed by pervasive denialist propaganda. You do what you can in that environment, but the main thing is to stay true to your principles, remain a credible institution, and be ready to take advantage when the old order collapses. That seems to be happening for the UK Greens now. I don't think we can force it here.
@isaacfreeman
> the main thing is to stay true to your principles, remain a credible institution, and be ready to take advantage when the old order collapses
100%. As they are now in the UK, the demographics will shift, Millennials/ Zoomers will outvote Boomers/ Xers, and things will change. This time we need our ideas to be the ones lying around when the crisis comes. We need to be everywhere, talking to everyone, finding common ground, building consensus.
@isaacfreeman
> this isn't anything major we're doing wrong, just a general complacency in our society fed by pervasive denialist propaganda
Fair comment, but I think there are a few things the Greens could do different.
They were one of the first NZ parties to use email lists and to have a blog (remember FrogBlog?), back when most politicos still thought the net was a phase. They could be making more use of new media; podcasting, fediverse, ATmosphere, etc
@isaacfreeman @strypey @lightweight
I know it’s not directly connected but I think Mamdani has provided a great blueprint for how politicians and political parties can reach people who may be outside of their assumed supporter base and energise politics.
Of course being a good looking and charismatic leader doesn’t hurt either. I like the way Chloe is becoming more confident in what she’s proposing.
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One thing I agree with James Shaw about is growing active membership. It was crucial to Corbyn's Labour and it's one of the UK Greens most important achievements with Zack. But it's not just growth that matters, but *how* you grow.
Growth needs to be slow and steady enough for new members to be orientated into the party's structure and culture, and for those to evolve without splintering (side note: I suspect this is what TPM are reckoning with).
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The best way to grow is the way plants and ecosystems do. From the edges reaching out, at a pace they can sustain. Not pushed out from the centre according to exec-driven plans.
Winning electorates - and lots of them - is key to eclipsing Labour. Electorate-level party structures know their bioregions, and communities within them. They're most likely to know what candidates, policy focus and messaging will cut through where they live. They know how to grow their branches.
Support them!
@isaacfreeman
> my impression is that Te Pāti Māori's current troubles have a lot more to do with John Tamihere's personality
I don't find that satisfying as an explanation. Tamihere has been there since before the election. The cause is more likely to be something that's changed.
I read somewhere that Taktai was the peacemaker and her death has removed an important calming influence. That fits the timing and seems more likely to me.
@strypey I agree on growing membership and maintaining culture. I think what's critical there is that there be a wider movement and workdview that the party represents. There is a solid small-g green perspective that grounds economic and social concerns in ecological science. It needs a political wing, thus the Green Party. The specific people are important tactically, but if all current MPs and members disappeared overnight, a new green party would rapidly form. No other existing party is going to advance a green political agenda.
This is why I was never particularly interested in Your Party. That's some people trying to catalyse a movement, not a movement creating a party. Likewise TOP in New Zealand.
@jeremy_pm @lightweight
Probably one of the biggest strengths of Mamdani's campaign for Greens (& TPM) to take note of has been his clearly defined and costed policies, clear and consistent messaging while navigating his way through the many gotchas and ingenuous slurs thrown his way. He always calmly moves the conversation back to his principles and policy intentions.
@isaacfreeman
> Your Party ... some people trying to catalyse a movement, not a movement creating a party
I'll admit I don't know much about the details. But there definitely seemed to be a movement propelling Corbyn to the Labour leadership. Didn't the party membership swell in the leadup to his election for the first time in decades?
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I imagine a lot of Corbyn supporters were flushed out of UK Labour with that 'Palestinian rights = antisemitism' report. Also that many more still remaining would leave if they had somewhere to go.
Perhaps they've all joined the Greens since Zack became leader, leaving Your Party high and dry, but we'll see.
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@strypey When I say movement, I mean an ideology that's expressed in many projects and institutions. The green movement isn't just the Green Party, it's also Greenpeace, Forest & Bird, the Sierra Club, and many other strong organisations. It's grounded in science and has a coherent economic analysis. The party belongs to that movement, not the other way around.
Corbyn seems like a decent guy, but I don't see a movement behind him. At most he's appealing to a movement that the Labour Party used to represent, but that wasn't enough to overcome the neoliberal movement that it currently exists to serve.
I'm being super reductive of course, and perhaps there's a better word for what I mean. But I'm generally unconvinced by parties that form around particular people. No matter how rapidly they grow in the short term, they're not stable.
@jeremy_pm @lightweight
@isaacfreeman
> But I'm generally unconvinced by parties that form around particular people
Totally agree. But to me it seems like the idea that this is built around Corbyn, comes from the same place as the idea being against IDF genocide is antisemitic; establishment media.
Corbyn is one among dozens of elected MPs and councillors getting behind the new party. That they got re-elected with Sir Stammer's knives in their backs suggests there is a movement behind them.
@strypey That's fair. There are certainly people behind them, it's just not obvious to me that there's a movement in the sense I'm (somewhat idiosyncratically) using. I don't have a sense of any overall ideology beyond general leftism, or other Strong institutions sharing the same values in other spheres and that makes me feel the entire project is vulnerable.
I'm open to the possibility that I've been affected by a misleading portrayal of the project as “Corbynite” when there's much more there than one man. But fundamentally I know what a Green Party is because I know what the green worldview is. I don't have a good mental model for what Your Party is about.
@jeremy_pm @lightweight
@isaacfreeman
> just not obvious to me that there's a movement
Your criticism is fair when applied to George Galloway for example. The Respect electoral machine was built around his personal support base, and an alliance with leftish Muslims and the unreformed Leninists of the SWP. It never had more than one MP and never made much of a dent in Labour.
I think the new party involving Corbyn is qualitatively different.
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There are multiple movements behind the new. The most obvious being the radical end of the union movement, who feel utterly betrayed by Labour swinging back to the right. Again.
Also the free Palestine movement, for whom Corbyn has been a key champion within the walls. Sir Stammer's knobbling of him has them incensed and most will never vote Labour again. No doubt some have fallen in with the Greens, but they're still a significant social force looking for electoral expression.
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Here's a classic example of the establishment media hatchet men trying to strangle the new "Corbynite" party in the crib, out of pure spite;
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/zarah-sultana-your-party-jeremy-corbyn-left-b2856251.html
At least he mentions Zarah Sultana, who looks more like the future leader to me so far. But he's already pouring scorning on her before he even gets past the headline;
"Is Zarah Sultana a useful idiot? To be that, she’d need to be useful"
I'll tell you who's a Useful Idiot and its not her.
Towards the end of David Aaronovitch's hit piece on Zarah Sultana, he links to another op ed from The Independent, which exposes exactly the principles-free "centrism" he cleaves to;
"But what if that isn’t the choice by the time of the next election? What if, just as Reform has overtaken the Tories in the opinion polls, a Green-Corbynite combination overtakes Labour?"
#JohnRentoul, August, 2025
The Sultana-Corbyn party hasn't even launched yet and the Greens have already outstripped Labour.
@strypey Galloway is definitely a much clearer case. Perhaps it would be fair to say that there's a spectrum from person-driven to movement-driven. Your Party is somewhere in the middle. My view is that it's not movementy enough to survive, but reasonable people may differ. I am pretty biased towards the movementy side of the spectrum.
I guess we also all tend to perceive the parties we know best as movementy, and reduce those we don't know to personalities.
@jeremy_pm @lightweight
@isaacfreeman
> there's a spectrum from person-driven to movement-driven. Your Party is somewhere in the middle
That seems fair.
> we also all tend to perceive the parties we know best as movementy, and reduce those we don't know to personalities
Good insight. I saw the Alliance as movement-driven and Winston First as person-driven. An early WF supporter probably saw the Alliance as the Jim Anderton party, and believed they were part of a movement.
Here's a great conversation with Jeremy Corbyn on the Blindboy podcast;
https://shows.acast.com/blindboy/episodes/jeremy-corbyn
Corbyn envisions a party that stands for a caring society, global peace and environmental sustainability. He also talks about using Citizens' Assemblies and other radical new forms of democracy. These are the 4 core principles of Green parties around the world.
I wish Blindboy has asked Corbyn why he isn't joining UK Greens.
I speak with independent socialist politician Jeremy Corbyn about compassionate politics
@strypey Thanks, I'll have a listen.
I do find it hard to imagine what role a former Labour leader could have in a Green Party. I suspect it would be too disruptive to have him as an MP, and the media would assume he was running everything. I'd also be concerned that he'd model it as a left party instead of a green party, or at least assume that the distinction was more superficial than it really is.
Perhaps there's a need in the UK for something like New Zealand's Alliance Party, built essentially on an electoral pact for various progressive parties to fight FPP elections together. But the Green political brand was stronger on its own once we shifted to MMP. The UK Greens may have already achieved that without PR.
@isaacfreeman
> I do find it hard to imagine what role a former Labour leader could have in a Green Party
Perhaps that answers the question. Maybe he feels like he can do more good throwing in with all the other ex-Labour MPs and councilors? Creating a home for Brits who essentially support Green principles and policy, but for whatever reason don't identify with Green as a political brand. Kind of like the Pirates in European countries like Sweden, Germany and Iceland.
@jeremy_pm
> adopt some form of proportional representation
Who's going to campaign for that? Not the Tories or Labour, and probably not Reform either (for the same reasons ACT oppose MMP). So it falls to the Greens, Your Party and *maybe* the LibDems. Just like it was the parties in the Alliance pushing it here.
I would agree that the movement behind Corbyn’s party has been about building an alternative to the now failed Labour Party appealing to its disassociated voters many of whom have moved away and now support UK Greens.
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