To no-one's real surprise Labour has lost the Caerphilly by-election to Plaid Cymru... Plaid took the seat with a 47% share of the vote, but Reform managed to gain (pretty much from a standing start) 36%, while Labour saw a majority drop to 11% (all, on a slight larger turnout of 50%).
Its not good news for Labour, but most disappointingly the Greens vote share dropped from a previous constituency high of around 15% in 2021 to almost (but not quite) zero.
#Caerphilly #politics
h/t FT
Indeed, that may be the case....
It was exactly that.
@ChrisMayLA6 I'm guessing the collapse in the Green vote is down to tactical voting. The Greens voting for Plaid (but not Labour) would keep Reform out!
Another example of the failure of FPTP.
[Edit: Yesterday's by-election was under FPTP, for a constituency seat.
Next year, all seats will be PR (d'hondt. I forget the details...)]
yes, that looks to be the case (as a couple of replies have already noted)... and yes, it does come down to the problem of FPTP when there is a party which most people definitely *don't* want
Wish the following didn't have things parallel to the rise of Reform in it.
But it does.
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@ChrisMayLA6 Greens were not relevant in this case. And I hope they put no effort in at all.
The worst possible thing in the various elections over the next four years would be for the sensible 'left alternative' parties - Greens, PC, SNP and LD - to fight over the same votes. It would be disastrous.
Let them work together to figure out where each of their resources are best focused.
(Yes, I realise PC and SNP aren't going to be directly fighting over the same votes, but you know what I mean.)
Yes, a Left Coalition/Popular Front approach looks like the only available strategy without electoral reform!
yes, and at the last election in the UK there was a significant level of organised tactical voting of course
@steviferous @daveredwine @markhburton @RolloTreadway
I think I'm right in saying that was not the major tactical voting site though?
@ChrisMayLA6 @steviferous @daveredwine @markhburton First I've heard of it (I mean, I've heard of the campaign group, but not of any tactical voting advice from them).
There is a difference, mind, between brexit-era pro-eu tactical voting and anti-hard and far right tactical voting.
@ChrisMayLA6 I actually don't find it disappointing, and I speak as a Green Party member.
What I take away from that is that progressive voters are smart enough to vote tactically when it seems appropriate, as it clearly was here.
(Not that they always will be, of course, but at least they can sometimes do it.)
@ChrisMayLA6 given it was evidently a two horse race between Plaid & Reform Ltd, progressives of all hues would have backed Plaid - why split the vote and let the far right in?
As a GP member, I’d have preferred a Green victory, of course, but that was never going to happen this time. I don’t think we can read any more into it than that
Yes, that's become pretty clear in the discussion this morning....
wonder how much of that was, we want someone other than labour or reform, so tactical Plaid?
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