Jonathan SchofieldSep 27, 2025

The UK is trumpeting #rail200: the 200th anniversary of the railway. As @markhburton points out, that’s a bit premature: https://mstdn.social/@markhburton/113803780435711720

But I want to re-up Kris de Dekker’s lens.

If we were serious about constructing a low carbon economy, we’d acknowledge, soberly, that we have a steel problem:

“The global iron and steel industry consumes more energy and produces more carbon emissions than any other industry.”

Some notes from Kris’s excellent analysis follow…

Mark Burton (@[email protected])

2025 is being celebrated as the 200th anniversary of the birth of the passenger railway. A bit premature, although there was a one-off excursion on the Stockton and Darlington railway, with passengers traveling on coal wagons, the regular passenger service from 1825-1830 used horse-drawn coaches. In 1830, the Liverpool Manchester railway opened, the first connecting 2 cities and the first scheduled passenger service. Stockton and Darlington Railway - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockton_and_Darlington_Railway #rail200

Mastodon 🐘
Show threadJonathan SchofieldSep 27, 2025

…I love rail travel.

Unfortunately, at some point we have to face up to the fact that, although we started out with steel cars powered along steel rails by coal, and then had steel cars powered along steel rails by diesel, we’re now committed to only having steel cars powered along steel rails by electricity.

And steel is made with coal.

“The solution seems obvious: let’s produce all that steel in electric arc furnaces. However, this is impossible. There’s not enough scrap available…”

Show threadJonathan SchofieldSep 27, 2025

…because “the continuous growth of global steel output makes a circular flow of resources impossible.

It takes decades before most steel becomes available for recycling. For example, there is 543 Mt of steel stocked in ships. The scrap available for recycling in 2021 corresponds to the production level of 1965 when global steel production was less than one-quarter of what it is today (450 Mt)…”

Show threadJonathan SchofieldSep 27, 2025

…“Consequently, the other three quarters [of global steel demand] needs to be produced in blast furnaces using coal and freshly mined iron ore.”

The above quotes are from https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2024/03/how-to-escape-from-the-iron-age/

How to Escape From the Iron Age?

We cannot lower carbon emissions if we keep producing steel with fossil fuels.

LOW←TECH MAGAZINE
Show threadJonathan SchofieldSep 27, 2025

…Everyone who is betting on the rhetoric of the energy transition should read Kris’s tour of our steel predicament, because if what we have is a plan that *cannot work*, that’s a problem, right?

Kris goes into

- the level of steel demand
- the proliferation of grades of steel (over 2,500 different types)
- the relationship with renewable energy, especially wind power
- the magical thinking of hydrogen…

Show threadJonathan Schofield

…Kris observes:

“A 14 MW offshore wind turbine has a steel intensity that is almost 50 times higher than a fossil fuel power plant for every kilowatt-hour of electricity produced.”

Before arriving at what to
me seems like an inevitable conclusion:

“adjust steel production to the available scrap supply both in quantity and quality. That would allow us to produce all steel from scrap in electric arc furnaces, dramatically reducing energy consumption and eliminating almost all carbon emissions.”

Sep 27, 2025 at 9:18amIvory for iOS
Show threadJonathan SchofieldSep 27, 2025

…My instinct is that, because we are on a rail road of growth, we will explore every possible branch line of magical thinking before taking Kris seriously

#rail200

https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/113134888351348909

Show threadGrah am Jan zSep 27, 2025
@urlyman a slowed down economy opens the possibility for slow forms of travel, like long distance walking. Walk a thousand kms this way, a thousand kms that way, live on the road. Our socio-ecological problems arise from our tendency of staying put and accumulating of things. The law of the road is that you can't take more than you are willing to carry. Yeah, this view is out of touch with most people, but maybe it will catch on :~D
Show threadBrian SmithSep 28, 2025
@urlyman
Before we jump up and down too much on steel, How does it compare with concrete and Tarmac on roads, in terms of full life cycle costs and emissions?
Show threadJonathan SchofieldSep 28, 2025

@BrianSmith950 Steel certainly has high reusability. I’m not jumping on it as such. I liked what the steel in my road bike enabled very much before it got trashed by a bigger mass of steel being driven into it.

The thing I’m constantly trying to highlight is

a) We do things that have emissions which we think don’t matter but *really really do*

b) Because we think they don’t matter we build millions of lifestyles on that basis, even as it becomes obvious they cannot go on at that scale

Show threadMatthewToadAgainSep 27, 2025

@urlyman The best way to reduce use of steel, energy, and mining in general is to switch to public transport rather than replacing every car with an EV. 😀

We have easily enough steel and other mined resources for rail and buses. For cars, that's less clear.

Show threadMatthewToadAgainSep 27, 2025

@urlyman And as for turbines, the UK government estimate is 25 million tonnes of steel *TOTAL* from 2026 to 2050 for wind turbines.

Which is two and a half years of scrap!

Show threadMartin Vermeer FCDSep 27, 2025
@MatthewToadAgain @urlyman And don't forget electric bikes. They don't just substitute muscle bikes but also cars!