Mastodawn

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

The UK is trumpeting #rail200: the 200th anniversary of the railway. As @markhburton points out, that’s a bit premature: https://mstdn.social/@markhburton/113803780435711720

But I want to re-up Kris de Dekker’s lens.

If we were serious about constructing a low carbon economy, we’d acknowledge, soberly, that we have a steel problem:

“The global iron and steel industry consumes more energy and produces more carbon emissions than any other industry.”

Some notes from Kris’s excellent analysis follow…

Mark Burton (@[email protected])

2025 is being celebrated as the 200th anniversary of the birth of the passenger railway. A bit premature, although there was a one-off excursion on the Stockton and Darlington railway, with passengers traveling on coal wagons, the regular passenger service from 1825-1830 used horse-drawn coaches. In 1830, the Liverpool Manchester railway opened, the first connecting 2 cities and the first scheduled passenger service. Stockton and Darlington Railway - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockton_and_Darlington_Railway #rail200

Mastodon 🐘

Jonathan Schofield

…I love rail travel.

Unfortunately, at some point we have to face up to the fact that, although we started out with steel cars powered along steel rails by coal, and then had steel cars powered along steel rails by diesel, we’re now committed to only having steel cars powered along steel rails by electricity.

And steel is made with coal.

“The solution seems obvious: let’s produce all that steel in electric arc furnaces. However, this is impossible. There’s not enough scrap available…”

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

…because “the continuous growth of global steel output makes a circular flow of resources impossible.

It takes decades before most steel becomes available for recycling. For example, there is 543 Mt of steel stocked in ships. The scrap available for recycling in 2021 corresponds to the production level of 1965 when global steel production was less than one-quarter of what it is today (450 Mt)…”

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

…“Consequently, the other three quarters [of global steel demand] needs to be produced in blast furnaces using coal and freshly mined iron ore.”

The above quotes are from https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/2024/03/how-to-escape-from-the-iron-age/

How to Escape From the Iron Age?

We cannot lower carbon emissions if we keep producing steel with fossil fuels.

LOW←TECH MAGAZINE

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

…Everyone who is betting on the rhetoric of the energy transition should read Kris’s tour of our steel predicament, because if what we have is a plan that *cannot work*, that’s a problem, right?

Kris goes into

- the level of steel demand
- the proliferation of grades of steel (over 2,500 different types)
- the relationship with renewable energy, especially wind power
- the magical thinking of hydrogen…

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

…Kris observes:

“A 14 MW offshore wind turbine has a steel intensity that is almost 50 times higher than a fossil fuel power plant for every kilowatt-hour of electricity produced.”

Before arriving at what to
me seems like an inevitable conclusion:

“adjust steel production to the available scrap supply both in quantity and quality. That would allow us to produce all steel from scrap in electric arc furnaces, dramatically reducing energy consumption and eliminating almost all carbon emissions.”

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

…My instinct is that, because we are on a rail road of growth, we will explore every possible branch line of magical thinking before taking Kris seriously

https://mastodon.social/@urlyman/113134888351348909

Grah am Jan z Sep 27, 2025

@urlyman a slowed down economy opens the possibility for slow forms of travel, like long distance walking. Walk a thousand kms this way, a thousand kms that way, live on the road. Our socio-ecological problems arise from our tendency of staying put and accumulating of things. The law of the road is that you can't take more than you are willing to carry. Yeah, this view is out of touch with most people, but maybe it will catch on :~D

Brian Smith Sep 28, 2025

@urlyman
Before we jump up and down too much on steel, How does it compare with concrete and Tarmac on roads, in terms of full life cycle costs and emissions?

Jonathan Schofield Sep 28, 2025

@BrianSmith950 Steel certainly has high reusability. I’m not jumping on it as such. I liked what the steel in my road bike enabled very much before it got trashed by a bigger mass of steel being driven into it.

The thing I’m constantly trying to highlight is

a) We do things that have emissions which we think don’t matter but *really really do*

b) Because we think they don’t matter we build millions of lifestyles on that basis, even as it becomes obvious they cannot go on at that scale

MatthewToadAgain Sep 27, 2025

@urlyman The best way to reduce use of steel, energy, and mining in general is to switch to public transport rather than replacing every car with an EV. 😀

We have easily enough steel and other mined resources for rail and buses. For cars, that's less clear.

MatthewToadAgain Sep 27, 2025

@urlyman And as for turbines, the UK government estimate is 25 million tonnes of steel *TOTAL* from 2026 to 2050 for wind turbines.

Which is two and a half years of scrap!

Martin Vermeer FCD Sep 27, 2025

@MatthewToadAgain @urlyman And don't forget electric bikes. They don't just substitute muscle bikes but also cars!

MatthewToadAgain Sep 27, 2025

@urlyman There is a hell of a lot of scrap available that we're not using right now. The total UK scrap supply is about 10 million tonnes per annum, of which we use about 2.5. Most of the rest is exported, sure. But we could build several more arc furnaces.

Steel for rails in particular is often made via arc furnaces, while some other uses need "virgin" steel.

Meanwhile, where you actually need virgin steel, large scale direct reduction from hydrogen, using electricity from renewables, is not only possible, there are at least four plants under construction.

Granted there are difficulties with hydrogen; electrolysis doesn't like running below 50% capacity, for instance, and most of the H2 leaks (greenhouse gas) come from starting and stopping.

In any case annual demand for steel for rails is about 80,000 tonnes (UK). That's a fraction of overall steel demand.

Steel is indeed a problem. But we can provide the steel needed for rail.

The problem with building new rail lines is that 1) it tends to go through important habitats, 2) it tends to take decades, 3) it tends to cost tens of billions and 4) if any modal shift actually occurs, it can lead to further emissions in other sectors (i.e. we need to close down airports at the same time).

If it's done right it can still make a meaningful contribution to the transition. For instance we need a low-speed line from Birmingham out to Crewe to make HS2's capacity gains on rail freight actually materialise.

MatthewToadAgain Sep 27, 2025

@urlyman Comparing this to other modes of transport:

Improving bus travel can be deployed quickly at a modest cost. Depending on the roads, it may compete with traffic. Electric buses are typically not any heavier than the current hybrids, but are quieter, more comfortable and lower maintenance, and already make up 23% of the global fleet. So it's a win/win, but it doesn't eliminate the need for rail, especially for freight.

70% or so of orders for new ferries (short haul, up to a few hundred miles) are already electric. Cheaper batteries will make it feasible up to at least 3000km. And 40% of global shipping is for fossil fuels.

Meanwhile the situation with aviation is *much* less promising.

And then there are cars. Which use far more steel than public transport. And energy, pollution in all senses, space etc. By one credible projection, **half** of the total mining needed for the transition is for EV batteries.

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

@MatthewToadAgain In terms of direction of travel I agree with all that. But if we’re going concertedly there at all, we’re also travelling towards a train of consequences that’s on the same line with no off-rail in between

MatthewToadAgain Sep 27, 2025

@urlyman Yeah, it's another "green growth is going to be harder than you think, we need degrowth".

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

@MatthewToadAgain ✊💚

Nick Sep 27, 2025

@urlyman Was just discussing your thread with my son, who is a structural engineer. He tells me the other issue with recycling steel in electric arc furnaces is that currently the end product isn’t as tough, so has more limited uses.

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

@pythoneer yes, Kris in his article:

“Although higher quality steels can be produced in electric arc furnaces, they’re not made from scrap, and have much higher energy use.

Steel available for recycling forms a mix of steel grades. That mix is suitable for making plain carbon steel but not highly alloyed steels, which require scrap with similar qualities. However, that scrap is not available. For example, stainless steel, the most produced special steel grade, has a recycling rate of only 15%”

Jonathan Schofield Sep 27, 2025

@pythoneer …“The low recycling rate and the need for the extraction of additional elements such as chrome and nickel make higher grades of steel more energy-intensive to produce. For example, stainless steel production requires almost 80 GJ per ton, four times more than the production of plain carbon steel. The continuous development of higher-grade steels is stimulated by environmental legislation (such as the use of lighter steel in cars)” … ironically making “steel less and less sustainable”