I have these two sentences stuck in my head these days:

A French minister: we need to prepare ourselves for a future when temperatures are 4°C higher.

A climate scientist: with a rise of 4°C above pre-industrial age, up to 90% of the world's population may die.

(edit: muting the post, it's going way beyond its intended audience, I'd like to be able to see notifications about other things. thanks you all for sharing)

#ClimateCrisis #Climate #ClimateEmergency

@David That's assuming 90% of the population sit idly by while the coastline moves inland. That won't happen

@CubeRootOfTrue @David

There is always the possibility to move underground too. Life will always find a path (not saying this is a path I want though :S)

@Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David seems like probably a max of about 10% of the current population may be able to do that
@mhanson101 @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David And what is truly concerning is that 10% will merely be rich, not necessarily the most evolved (intelligent), gauging by the actions of our current billionaires.
@adritheonly @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David yeah, I agree, I'd say most likely having more anti-social tendencies due to the characteristics that are correlated with wealth hoarding.

@mhanson101 @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David I was thinking more along the lines of them being so unintelligent as to think that having lots of money means they also, somehow, gained knowledge outside their own respective fields and therefore dangerously meddling in everything from agriculture to politics is somehow OK.

If only Musk was antisocial, he wouldn't have had that many kids...

@Beldarak @David people talk about habitats in orbit with nuclear power for growing plants, we should probably test this here, underground

#nuclearpower #survival

@CubeRootOfTrue According to https://permaculturism.com/how-much-land-does-it-take-to-feed-one-person/

To feed 1 person for a year with veg, fruit, eggs, chicken, milk, wheat & grain you need ~2 acres of land

I was taught you also need a fallow field & you rotate this field each year

So say ~3 acres with ⅓ unused a year

You could use a shelving system to reduce the total footprint but that's still a fair amount of space & that's just 1 person with simple tastes doing all the work

No way is a billionaire doing that

@Beldarak @David

How Much Land Does It Take To Feed One Person - Online Calculator

How much land does it take to feed one person? About 5-6 acres. How much land to feed a family? Use our free online calculator to find out; and more

Permaculturism
@staringatclouds @CubeRootOfTrue @Beldarak @David it can be less if you remove farm animals from the equation.
If the world adopted a plant-based diet, we would reduce global agricultural land use from 4 to 1 billion hectares

We could reduce the amount of land used for grazing and croplands used to grow animal feed.

Our World in Data
@bhasic @alemarcati @staringatclouds @Beldarak @David I see that data and think, if we did that, the population would quadruple
@CubeRootOfTrue @bhasic @staringatclouds @Beldarak @David I don't think so. It's not like it's lack of food that is the bottleneck preventing population to grow
@CubeRootOfTrue @bhasic @alemarcati @staringatclouds @Beldarak @David would it? And even if it did, how long would it take?
@bhasic @alemarcati @CubeRootOfTrue @Beldarak @David And if we switched to eating yeast grown in vats we could probably use a fraction of that
@staringatclouds what do you think yeast grows on?
@temptoetiam Oh dead bodies, plant matter, any sugar it can find

@bhasic @alemarcati @staringatclouds @CubeRootOfTrue @Beldarak @David

And modified home-brew EarthBox-style growing systems can give increased crop yields, with 3 harvests-per-year growing outddors, and 4-5 harvests-per-year indoors.

https://wickcuriosityshop.net/collection/plant-regulated-growing-system

Used globally, at current temperatures, they could increase growable land by ~40%.

Wick Curiosity Shop: Plant Regulated Growing System

@staringatclouds @Beldarak @David hmmm 2 acres underground with lots of grow lights; the nuclear reactor can be shared, we'll need more than one anyway, cracking seawater, etc

@CubeRootOfTrue @Beldarak @David The lights don't last forever, equipment wears out, spares run out, reactors eventually burn all their fuel

So we'll need a scientific, industrial & even mining capability to keep things running

The climate isn't going to recover in a decade or two, if it ever does

People are going to be down there for lifetimes

We're effectively discussing building a "Generation Ship" either in a hole in the ground or in orbit

It's a huge task

@CubeRootOfTrue @Beldarak @David I just had a look at some lifetime stats for large US nuclear reactors

These are currently certified for around 80 years of operation, so call it a century before major work is needed to give it another century

No idea how long a mini one is supposed to last but I doubt it's any longer

@CubeRootOfTrue @Beldarak @David The fuel rods seem to last about 5 years before they need replacing

They've used about 10% of their fuel in that time & it's possible to reprocess them to make new rods

But eventually you'll need new fuel rods

You don't just plug it in & go forever

Then of course there's what do you do with all the highly radioactive waste which you need to get out of your bunker, as far away as possible & not close enough to other waste that it causes a radiation hazard

@Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David underground is not a great plan to get away from raising water.
@passwordsarehard4 @Beldarak @David We DO have nuclear reactors. We can actually generate enough power to light the underground tunnels and crack water. Not the rising seas, no, you need to build further inland
@Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David Do you know that plants, on which our entire terrestrial ecosystem (including all agricultural productivity), depend on sunlight and so cannot live underground?

@ELS @CubeRootOfTrue @David

I was more thinking about underground habitats so humans aren't constantly in the heat.

You'd still be growing plants on the surface and I guess you could also go there.

But your house, office buildings etc... would be at -1 / -2 / -3 floor levels to be easier to cool down.

You could also farm mushrooms underground rather than vegetables, if the surface truly became unwalkable, but that's like absolute post-apocalypse scenario, we won't be there to live it.

@ELS @CubeRootOfTrue @David

Just to be clear, I'm not saying all this as a "oh, it's fine that we're destroying the planet, there are solutions".

Saving Earth is still the priority we should all work towards. But unless we get rid of oligarchs and current capitalism, I don't see it happening 😢

There are hope though. It seems tons of people are finally seeing that the current system doesn't work at all

@Beldarak @ELS @CubeRootOfTrue @David

There is indeed hope that the human species will survive* by abandoning endless economic growth and profit extraction, and by embracing cooperation and sustainability.

*it's just not clear how many of us will make it through the bottleneck

@petealexharris Maybe, although I suspect that we are rapidly closing that loophole.

@petealexharris @Beldarak @ELS @David There is a bit of an education problem

We solved a global pandemic with novel mRNA vaccines because there were many smart people at NIH, back in the day

Next time you're on your own but thank heavens for the YouTubers who are doing DIY genetic engineering

@CubeRootOfTrue @petealexharris @Beldarak @ELS

"We solved a global pandemic"

When did that happen?

@Beldarak @ELS @CubeRootOfTrue @David this reply reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem. What will kill most of us is not directly the heat. It will be the collapse of biodiversity, leading to a collapse of the food chain (as well as lack of freshwater). Moving in orbit or underground will not change anything about it.
@FelisCatus @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David It’s frustrating how few techno-crats have any concept of the sciences of ecology, agronomy, or public health. It’s what leads them to fantasize that we can live and reproduce on Mars or in space ships.

@ELS @FelisCatus @CubeRootOfTrue @David

That or they know and don't care. Hard to say.

@Beldarak
That's my original point with the minister's comment.
Western oligarchies know. They're fine with culling the weakest and most vulnerable people. They've already started.

@ELS @FelisCatus @CubeRootOfTrue

@ELS @FelisCatus @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David

Sealed off lunar lava tubes would be a better bet than Mars. There's plenty of sunlight on the surface to power the grow lights. Resupply is only four days away.

And while waiting for the harvest to come in they could stage basket ball games and put them on PayPerView to cover their expenses. I'd sure pay money to see basketball played on the moon. Wouldn't you?

@LevZadov ok very funny troll. Apparently you like to get blocked.

@ELS @FelisCatus @Beldarak @David Just tell them we developed an AI that will take care of those problems. Haha jk. Yeah the problems are solvable. Actually solving them requires work.

It's frustrating that climate change has wiped out entire human cultures before, and nobody seems to remember or care, they think it's 1950 and Mom is in the kitchen making a casserole

@Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David Mehta What makes you think that edible plants will survive conditions that humans won’t. Talk to agricultural researchers from Pakistan to get some sense of the current problems, which are only getting worse.

@Beldarak @ELS @CubeRootOfTrue

"You'd still be growing plants on the surface"

You're missing one major point. If we have the technology to live underground by the billions we have it to live on the ground too (much easier and cheaper). However, the main issue of a planet 4 degrees warmer is not humans needing to live underground, it's mostly crop failure resulting to no food, wherever the population live above ground or not.

@ELS @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David

You've clearly never grown cannabis under lights.

@LevZadov @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David LOL!You are welcome to live by eating cannabis. Best of luck growing enough to live on.

@ELS @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David

Most plants can be grown under artificial lighting. I only cited cannabis because it's something I know a little bit about. I'm sorry it went over your head. That was not my intent.

@LevZadov @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David I’ve probably grown more kinds of plants than you can imagine. In greenhouses, in fields, in the lab under lights, with and without insect herbivores, with and without fungal pathogens and with and without beneficial microbes. I don’t think it’s possible to support the current human population by growing plants underground. I’m afraid that most people have no idea how difficult the coming years will be.

@ELS @Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David

I never suggested that it’s possible to support the *entire* current human population by growing plants underground. Don't put words in my mouth. It's rude. It's dishonest. It's very bad form.

@LevZadov Ah, so you expect to be among the specially anointed to do that underground living. Best wishes with that. I’d much rather see us abandon our fossil fuel addiction now.

@ELS

I never said that I, "expect to be among the specially anointed to do that underground living". Don't put words in my mouth. It's rude. It's dishonest. It's very bad form.

@LevZadov If you want to pick a fight, please do it elsewhere than in the replies of a post I started, thank you.

@David

I didn't "pick a fight", I defended myself. If you don't like hearing people defending themselves, I'm not the only one. We're *all* easy to block.

Are you implying that whoever started a thread *owns* it? Is that a rule in the TOS or is it your opinion? I'm not trying to stat a fight with you. I'm genuinely curious. As an avid, though amateur, anthropologist I find self-government in subcultures to be absolutely fascinating. I haven't got this place figured out yet. I'm still sorting the mods' culture from the users'. There's a thesis in this. I'm too old to chase sheepskin, but a few of the younger scholars here should go for it. Research-wise, this place is a data point gold mine.

@LevZadov @ELS @Beldarak @David they also like increased CO2, just sayin'
@Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David Yes, it’s true that life will find a way, but it won’t be human life.
@ELS @Beldarak @David I always wondered if humans could genetically engineer chloroplasts to live in skin. Then you could just go outside for lunch (I have a feeling it's not easy being green)

@CubeRootOfTrue @ELS @David

Doesn't any new capacity comes with a cost? Like we sleep a lot because we're big animals with a complex digestive system? :P

@CubeRootOfTrue @Beldarak @David New symbioses may take many generations for the host to evolve systems for managing the symbionts. Evolution often involves lots of death, although could occur via reduced reproductive capacity of the unfit individuals. It’s not a fun process. In any case, chloroplasts in your skin would not be useful if you lived underground to avoid blasted climate above.

This is a really fun envelope calculation to do but — working out how much photosynthesized energy it takes to keep a mammal alive, we’d have to be aquatic and sessile. Lake weeds, basically. And that’s making a LOT of optimistic rounding.

@CubeRootOfTrue @ELS @Beldarak @David

@Beldarak @CubeRootOfTrue @David Pre-2020, I would have agreed with you.

@davidr @CubeRootOfTrue @David

Anyway, the infrastructure needed to live like that could only be financed by the same people that are rich enough to end hunger but chose not to, and are also responsible of most planetary issues...