ok I feel completely insane asking this but like weren't we NOT blowing up rockets, like, 50 years ago. weren't we successfully sending rockets up that did not rattle apart. also weren't we like "ah yeah that was a fail" when the rocket fell apart instead of calling it a "partial success"

@sarahjeong.bsky.social

Yeeaaa... it's a different approach.

(Don't read this as a defence of Musk, he's a turd, but SpaceX has competent technical people below their chimpanzee-on-a-string PR person)

NASA's traditional approach was to basically achieve perfection of design and manufacturing before trying to launch anything. Look at every possible failure mode of every component, down to the tiniest screw or wire or bit of plastic. Keep redesigning parts until you eliminate all failure modes that you don't have triply-redundant backups for. Test the living snot out of everything on the ground, in the lab. Have massive technical and safety reviews to ensure nothing was missed, anywhere.

It worked about as well as anything could, but it was extremely slow, bureaucratic, and above all incredibly expensive. Tons of rework when issues were found meant having to go back 3 steps to change something, and then redo the massive amount of work that had been done since then to make sure no new failure modes were possible, etc.

SpaceX is doing things differently - #iterative design. You design, build, #integrate, and #test-to-failure as often as possible to learn where the weak spots are -- you then rapidly iterate when you find the problems. "Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly" is an expected part of the process - it's how you learn the limits of what you've built, where the problems are.

Neither one is "the right way". They both work.

#IterativeDevelopment

@cazabon @sarahjeong.bsky.social NASA's job is to put people into dangerous situations (space, aircraft, etc) and minimize the risk of them dying. Those constraints aren't the same for SpaceX because they answer to investors and need to drive profits. I wouldn't say they're just different approaches to the same solution. They are solving entirely different risk management constraints, and will come to entirely different solutions. One day, SpaceX is going to have a disaster that is going to make their entire business crumble.

@nonlinear @sarahjeong.bsky.social

Yes, SpaceX will eventually have a lives-lost incident, and it will be ugly. How the market / investors take it I have no prediction for.

But NASA has had several of those types of accidents over the years, so the waterfall / perfection model isn't immune to them, either. The two shuttle losses were due to bureaucracy that defeated NASA's safety culture, and the Apollo 1 debacle showed that their vaunted safety and technical reviews actually could miss something very important - several things simultaneously, in fact.

I think it's unfair to compare SpaceX's current test-to-failure of Super Heavy and Starship to human-rated missions from anyone. They did the same test-to-failure rapid development with Falcon 9 and Cargo Dragon, leading to Crew Dragon, and they haven't had a life-lost incident yet. They're not deliberately testing-to-failure with humans on board.

#Apollo1 #Shuttle #Columbia #Challenger #NASA #fatality #astronaut