Re the disappearing plane: If it crashed, or landed hard at the end of that track, someone probably should have noticed and posted on the internet by now (OTOH, there's A Lot Going On Right Now)
If they turned off the transponder and headed for some 3rd country, you'd expect them to turn it back on once in friendly / neutral airspace
Nothing on FIRMS in that area, but it's cloudy.
Could have flown to the Russian base in Latakia without a transponder and continued on with a different aircraft
"Regime forces in Deir Ezzor, the largest city in eastern Syria, have surrendered to rebels, HTS announced on its Telegram channel.
The announcement comes just one minute after the rebel group said its forces had begun entering Deir Ezzor" 💀 https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t?post=asset%3Aba5147fa-5c8f-4eef-84c2-6dd9cb910dd2#post
Flightrader24 weighs in on the missing IL-76: https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1865648296410157479
Playback link: https://flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/yk-ata#3844aec1
(edit: added individual images)
Last night we tracked a Ilyushin Il-76T flight over Syria. The flight took off from Damascus and the signal was lost near the city of Homs. * We can confirm that flight took place. * The aircraft was old with an older transponder generation, so some data might be bad or
Last altitude was ~1600'
If it crashed on that path, it seems like it would have hit somewhere between Al Rabwa and the outskirts of Homs near the M1 highway. That doesn't seem like it would go unnoticed. Also interesting the ground speed bumps up at the end…
120 kt is apparently landing speed https://contentzone.eurocontrol.int/aircraftperformance/details.aspx?ICAO=IL76&
Uh. I think the analogy to 1989 is somewhat applicable to what happened internally (a repressive regime that seemed inevitable right up until a bunch of people decided the system was toast and they weren't interested in killing/dying to defend it), but this? "…just as 1989 marked the end of communism in Europe, Assad’s flight to Moscow signals the demise of the ideology of anti-Western, anti-Israel resistance in the Middle East" - Nah, that ain't it.
"The Financial Times has uncovered records showing that Assad’s regime, while desperately short of foreign currency, flew banknotes weighing nearly two tonnes in $100 bills and €500 notes into Moscow’s Vnukovo airport to be deposited at sanctioned Russian banks between 2018 and 2019" (probably paywalled if you don't get a magic referral from the hellsite)
https://www.ft.com/content/84ef8bdd-d070-431d-90f6-332937911096
So UK has not lifted the terrorist designation on HTS, but "paused its decisions on Syrian asylum claims to the UK as the government has not determined whether Syria, under the new rebel-led authorities, is a safe country which people could be sent to" 🤨
I dunno man, if you say the de-facto rulers of a country are terrorists who it's illegal to support or do business with, that might undermine the whole "it's totes safe to go back" thing?
"A Syrian source familiar with the discussions told Reuters that the new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, had requested that Moscow hand over former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad" and "[rebuild trust with] concrete measures such as compensation, reconstruction and recovery"
The Syrians also "stressed that restoring relations must address past mistakes, respect the will of the Syrian people and serve their interests"
Found by Reuters at the abandoned Iranian embassy in Syria "The ambitious program, outlined in a 33-page official Iranian study, makes several references to “The Marshall Plan” … Ultimately, Iran’s hopes to emulate the Marshall Plan and build an economic empire encompassing Syria went more the way of America’s debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan"
From leading a major al Qaeda affiliate to pitching Trump Tower Damascus
also, 6 months on from overthrowing Assad "Washington is yet to formulate and articulate a coherent Syria policy" so no wonder Sharaa is looking for something shiny to dangle in front of Trump
Looks like Trump Tower Damascus is go!
More seriously, this is actually good. While I'd argue for something more structured than the blanket removal this appears to be (like, we'll keep sanctions suspended as long as you meet X, Y, Z standards for governance, minority rights etc), it's certainly better than just leaving them all in place.
https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-will-remove-us-sanctions-syria-2025-05-13/
Syria is also formally integrating ~3,500 mostly Uyghur and central Asian foreign fighters into the armed forces, with at least informal US agreement. Probably one of the less bad options
*record scratch* *freeze frame*
NYT article on where Assad regime officials escaped to (mostly Russia for the ones they managed to track down, unsurprisingly)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/world/middleeast/assad-regime-syria-exodus.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uE8.b0P2.QGOQOPkXTB6G&smid=url-share
@reedmideke Ive already seen a few trip reports, it seems… not terrible? Certainly cheap.
https://old.reddit.com/r/travel/comments/1khw4ch/syria_trip_review_two_weeks_in_free_syria/
@reedmideke Google Maps shows a bunch, many with nice websites, but I only found one that lists a price. None are on OTAs.
Now I'm wondering what the preferred foreign currency is. USD is always classic, but their largest trading partner is Turkey. Holding lira is a mistake though.
Reed Mideke
Ben Brockert
simonbp