Reed MidekeThis just seems like an embarrassingly silly denial "Such an act can only be carried out with extensive technical and financial resources ... and who possessed all this at the time of the bombing? Only Russia"
Whether or not Ukraine did blow up Nordstream, the suggestion they *couldn't* have done it is just totally at odds with the many other successful, daring covert ops they've carried out with limited resources
Ukraine presidential adviser denies Ukraine's involvement in Nord Stream explosions
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak denied his country's involvement in explosions which damaged the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and instead pointed the finger at Russia in comments to Reuters on Thursday.
And this is just insulting our intelligence "[Podolyak said] that Ukraine did not gain any strategic or tactical advantage from the blasts"
Pretty obvious why Ukraine would like to limit Russian gas exports that don't produce transit fees for Ukraine, and far less obvious why Russia would want to blow up a pipeline that they could just turn off at any time, leaving them with the option of turning it back on as bargaining chip
Pretty obvious why Ukraine would like to limit Russian gas exports that don't produce transit fees for Ukraine, and far less obvious why Russia would want to blow up a pipeline that they could just turn off at any time, leaving them with the option of turning it back on as bargaining chip
"2,300 ships carrying over 60 million tonnes of cargo used Ukraine's Black Sea corridor over last year" - Gotta wonder if Putin regrets blowing up the much more limited grain deal https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/15/7470558/
"We haven’t seen a substantial move [of Russian troops] just yet, and we can’t tell whether that’s just because they’re only just getting started moving forces, or whether they just don’t have the forces to move"
Wild, uninformed prediction: Russia will try to retake Kursk territories with the minimum number of troops required, scavenged from the less hot parts of the front line, while maintaining tempo in Donetsk
Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied Ukraine to counter Kursk offensive, US officials say
Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied territory inside Ukraine to counter a surprisingly successful Ukrainian offensive inside Russian borders in a move that potentially weakens Moscow’s war effort, two senior US officials told CNN.
This will probably result in several costly failed attempts, assuming (as I expect) Ukraine tries to hold a significant part. There's skepticism Ukraine can hold territory: "western officials familiar with the latest intelligence cautioned that Ukraine is extremely unlikely to be able to hold the territory for long" but given some time to entrench I'm not convinced defending 10 km over the border will be that different from defending at the border
Russia could try to just contain the Kursk incursion and double down on the Donbas front, forcing Ukraine to lose territory or withdraw to reinforce there, but I suspect Putin's ego will not allow that, and various levels of Russian command will produce rosy reports about how things are going and how quickly they can turn it around
Putin could bite the bullet on another mobilization wave. Would likely be politically and economically costly, but defending Russian territory is about as good an excuse as he's likely to get. OTOH, it would take significant time, and throwing waves of minimally-trained mobiks at the problem could drastically increase the political cost
If Russia draws significant troops from the lower priority fronts like Kharkiv, Kupiansk and the south west, that would probably be less welcome to Ukraine than affecting the main effort, but could still provide opportunities. OTOH, Ukraine will have very limited manpower to exploit them
IMO, one big question is how costly it will be for Ukraine to defend, and if it goes bad, whether there will be political room to change course before it turns into a giant Krynky style meatgrinder where they throw forces at it long after the original goals have become untenable
Another is how close Ukraine's mobilization efforts are to producing significant numbers. There's been rumors of new brigades in the fall, and being able to shore up other parts of the front or rotate in less elite troops for defense could be make a big difference
(again, this is all wild, uninformed speculation, primarily posted so I can look back later and see how dumb it was)
A lot of people thought the Kursk operation was nuts, apparently including the commander of one of the brigades involved 😬 "On the evening of 28 July, soldiers from the 80th Brigade contacted Ukrainska Pravda with a rather sudden request for us to publish an appeal in support of their then commander, Colonel Emil Ishkulov, who was facing dismissal…"
"All that was known about this command decision was that Ishkulov … had refused to carry out a task set by Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He said it was disproportionate to the human resources of the brigade … on 6 August, it became clear exactly what Ishkulov had refused to do when Ukrainian forces – including the 80th Brigade, under the leadership of a new commander, Pavlo Rozlach – went on a raid into Russian territory"
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/08/14/7470441/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/08/14/7470441/
TASS approvingly quotes Jill Stein saying "All Russia wanted was Ukraine's neutrality. It's very simple" and Russia's invasion of #Ukraine "could easily have been avoided if the U.S. sat down at the negotiating table before it or did not sabotage the peace agreement reached at the beginning of the conflict" https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/21628817
Hromadske also suggests Budanov's statements about an attack form the north were deception "In May, the [Budanov] said that the Russians might open a front in Sumy Oblast for the second time. The spy chief voiced a similar warning in July" https://hromadske.ua/en/war/229589-ukraines-bold-gamble-early-impact-of-kursk-offensive
Ukraine's bold gamble: Early impact of Kursk offensive
The advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kursk Oblast has been making the headlines of the world's leading media for more than a week. No one seems to have expected such a step from Ukraine. Although the military goals of the large-scale operation are still hidden in the fog of war, its political achievements are already taking shape. While the Ukrainian army is taking control of Russian towns and villages, China is cautiously calling on "the parties to the conflict to refrain from escalation," and Western countries are pretending that nothing extraordinary is happening. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is frantically searching for a way to localize the situation without stopping its offensive in eastern Ukraine. Read the article by hromadske to learn how the Kursk operation threatens the stability of the Putin regime, whether it is possible to exchange territories with Russia, and how this offensive is changing the attitude of Kyiv’s partners to the war.
H I Sutton reviews the state of the #Ukraine #USV war
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/uncrewed-platforms-have-been-critical-ukraines-success-black-sea
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/uncrewed-platforms-have-been-critical-ukraines-success-black-sea
Not *entirely* sold on the idea that doing televised press conferences with defectors is a great plan. May be less risky for this guy than helicopter pilot who tried to retire to Spain, since he's supposedly signing up with the Freedom of Russia Legion and will be screwed if the Russians capture him anyway but still… https://kyivindependent.com/defected-russian-soldier-reveals-he-spied-for-ukraine-injured-his-commander/
Nepali activist Kritu Bhandari "managed to verify the identities of over 699 Nepali men who enlisted in the Russian army … at least 117 Nepalis have been injured in the war … at least 41 Nepalis who have died in the war"
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/21/the-worst-decision-you-can-make
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/21/the-worst-decision-you-can-make
‘The worst decision you can make’ How Russia lured hundreds of men from Nepal to fight in Ukraine, leaving many of their families in financial ruin — Meduza
In the summer of 2023, an unlikely trend began dominating TikTok feeds in Nepal: dozens of videos showed Nepali men bragging about having joined the Russian army. According to these foreign fighters, the service conditions were comfortable, the work was safe, and the salaries were higher than anything on offer back in Nepal. To many young Nepali men sitting at home, moving to Russia seemed like a no-brainer; all they had to do was take out a loan to pay a middleman for a visa and a plane ticket. What they didn’t realize was that they were only seeing footage from training centers, where Nepali recruits spend a few weeks at most before being sent into the line of fire. Hundreds, and possibly thousands, of Nepali men have enlisted in the Russian army over the last two years, and at least dozens of them have been killed. Some of these men were the sole breadwinners for their wives and children. Irina Kravtsova, a special correspondent for Novaya Gazeta, traveled to Nepal to hear the stories of these men, the families they left behind, and the activist leading the fight for the government to intervene. Meduza shares an abridged translation of her report.
Back in May, it was noted Russia built some hangers at Marinovka air base in Volgograd (presumably) to protect aircraft from #Ukraine's drones…
https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112527456837287216
https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112527456837287216
How did that work out?
(these were undoubtedly not expected to survive a direct hit, it's possible they did save some aircraft from shrapnel damage)
MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) on X
🇷🇺Marinovka Air Base🇷🇺 ... and the 'AFTER' image (30cm from 22 Aug 2024 07:58 UTC) Still analyzing but given the interest, I shared what I thought were the areas that got hit Once again, less about airframes. Good amount of destruction around the hangars and just north of there
OTOH, those hangers probably make an excellent target for a relatively simple DIY electro-optical terminal guidance system
On the ground photos confirm that many of them were occupied, and the construction seems to be the sort of thin, corrugated sheet metal you'd expect https://t.me/s/TyskNIP/12693
Missed it at the time, but CNN reported back in April the long range strikes are using machine vision for terminal guidance "Accuracy under jamming is enabled through the use of [AI]. Each aircraft has a terminal computer with satellite and terrain data … They have this thing called ‘machine vision,’ which is a form of AI. Basically you take a model and you have it on a chip and you train this model to identify geography and the target it is navigating to"
Predictably, Russia has opened cases against journalists who reported from Ukraine-occupied Kursk. While Russia will have a hard time bringing them to trial, it could be a real risk if they end up in Russia-friendly countries. Also TBD if Russia goes after their employers or other employees operating in Russia
Ukraine also gets mad at reporters who go to Russian-occupied territories, but my impression is they mostly deny entry or accreditation in Ukraine rather than charging them
A lot of #Ukraine strikes on Russian fuel depots seem pretty low impact: A few tanks burn down, but facility is likely back in operation within days (unlike refinery equipment, which can be down for months). Not so for this depot in Proletarsk, Rostov Oblast, which has been cooking off for 5 days
Despite the intervention of the some Orthodox priests https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9qgyenzwzyo
Fighterbomer claims that all flyable aircraft took off from Marinovka before the strike🤨 If true, interesting the Russians know there are ~dozens of drones headed toward a given air base, with enough advance warning to scramble the entire fleet, and are still unable to shoot them all down
Fighterbomber
Давайте проведём разбор полётов. Так как тут впервые прилетело по аэродрому с какими-никакими, но укрытиями можно сделать некоторые рабочие выводы. Сразу подскажу, что все самолёты способные взлететь-улетели до атаки. Разумеется возникает вопрос, почему так много нелетающих бортов на аэродроме полка который совсем недавно перевооружен на нулячие Су-34? Ответ понятен - нет запчастей, нет двигателей, нет блоков. Почему их нет - вопрос не по окладу. Ну и не факт, что на этом аэродроме базировался только один полк. Эта цифра нынче плавающая. Далее. Лёгкие укрытия не обладают противоосколочной защитой, поэтому эту защиту им надо добавлять. Всеми имеющимися способами. Мешки, блоки, кучи земли, ящики с землёй - миллион способов. Кто должен это был сделать, и были ли эти возможности на аэродроме - я хз. И вообще, должен ли? В принципе сами по себе укрытия на аэродроме это уже что-то невероятное. Тут ангары от спонсора. Подарок. Самая большая проблема, что укрытия стоят скучено. Подобные укрытия практически на всех аэродромах стоят скучено, ибо как я выше говорил, они не предназначены для защиты от атак с воздуха, или земли. Они предназначены для защиты авиатехники и личного состава от плохой погоды и маскировки авиатехники. Причём с маскировкой они справились на все сто, даже после поражения, как это и ожидалось. Пока не появились фото считай из ангаров, степень и количество пораженной авиатехники по одним лишь спутникам оценить было невозможно. Даже сейчас это затруднительно. Скученно они стоят потому что ангар надо ставить там, где уже есть к нему рулежные дорожки. Или делать их персонально к каждому ангару. Это разные деньги. И разные навыки и специализация. И если ангарами помогли, то дорожками к ним нет. Поэтому поставили их на открытой стоянке, ибо больше было негде. Без ангаров, самолёты стояли бы на ней точно так же, только открыто и конечно ущерб был бы кратно больший. Ну и судя по фото, в одном из ангаров (стоящих скучено) хранились боеприпасы. Кучей. И именно в этот ангар хохлы (случайно или целенаправленно) и били. И попали. После детонации боеприпасов, претензии к лёгким укрытиям снимаются полностью и у обывателя возникает вопрос, хули они там лежали? БК номер один всегда лежит у самолётов с целью скорейшей подвески их на самолёт. Цеплять УМПК на бомбы тоже где-то надо. Разумеется такое место штатно на аэродроме не предусмотрено. Разумеется вооруженников прикручивающих УМПК на бомбы тоже надо спрятать от непогоды, разведки и прочего вместе собственно с их бомбами и комплектами УМПК. И желательно недалеко от самолётов. Ибо БК номер один для всех фронтовых бомберов это УМПК. Какие выводы мы должны сделать? Да все те же самые. Не считать хохлов тупыми. Не думать, что они будут атаковать числом дронов равным количеству зенитных ракет. Прилагать все имеющиеся средства по рассредоточению самолётов (даже неисправных) и укрытий по аэродрому. Выносить склады и места подготовки УМПК в обвалованные укрытия. Ну и самое главное помимо нормального прикрытия аэродромов системами ПВО и РЭБ, необходимо изыскать ресурсы для обеспечения аэродромов внештатной строительной техникой, стройматериалами и рабочей силой. МО сделать это по бюрократическим причинам не в состоянии. Ну или это причины которые в сфере компетенции тщ майоров. Да, ОБС подсказывают что наметившийся прогресс по централизованному строительству укрытий пошёл по пизде. ВКС не осилило, ВСК не умеет, технологии утеряны. Желающих присесть подрядчиков за 50% отката пока найти не могут. Доклад закончил! (Все вышенаписанное является фантазиями автора и к нашей прекрасной действительности отношения не имеет)
In addition to Marinovka and the Proletarsk depot, #Ukraine also recently destroyed Conro Trader, one of the last railcar-capable ferries serving Crimea, reportedly with a Neptune missile
Crimean Wind (pro Ukraine Crimean channel) claims Conro Trader was the last of three rail ferries, and heavy rail traffic is still restricted on the bridge.
(if one were doing a psyop to spur panic buying and shortages, it's hard to see how it would look much different from this)
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/66026
Крымский ветер
❗️По ситуации с паромной переправой и поставками топлива в Крым На Керченской переправе работали три железнодорожных парома: «Авангард», «Славянин» и «Конро Трейдер». Паром «Авангард» попал под удар 30 мая и был серьезно поврежден. У судна был, фактически, развален правый борт. Сейчас «Авангард» находится в ремонте, когда выйдет на линию - неизвестно. «Славянин» ВСУ повредили 23 июля, сейчас этот паром ожидает ремонта, находится в Азовском море. Ну а «Конро Трейдер» затонул после атаки 22 августа в порту "Кавказ", парализовав на неопределенное время работу Керченской паромной переправы. По Керченскому мосту железнодорожным транспортом топливо в Крым не доставляют, т.к. конструкции ослаблены после взрыва на мосту и горения грузового состава. Также опасаются, что по составу с топливом может быть нанесен ракетный удар. Поэтому наш совет, крымчане, остается прежним: запасайтесь топливом. Ну или пересаживайтесь на электротранспорт.
Others suggest Avangard may have already been repaired. Also, unlike warships, Russia can bring replacements through the Bosporus
"But if you watch the news, everything's been under control for three years now!" https://theins.press/en/society/274092
“I wish everyone in the Kremlin would drop dead”: Testimonies from war-torn Kursk Oblast, where locals have...
For the first time since World War II, parts of Russia’s Kursk Oblast have fallen under the control of foreign armed forces. Locals feel abandoned by their government, and even the most loyal are losing faith in the regime, notes The Insider's correspondent, who has visited the city of Kursk and traveled around in its vicinity. Refugees from the border zone are vocal in their condemnation of local officials, who evacuated in due time, leaving the population behind. They also have harsh words for the federal government back in Moscow, which unleashed a war that has now stripped thousands of ordinary Russians of their homes and livelihoods. The only state compensation they can hope for is a meager allowance of about $110. Some refugees are denied even that much. Even families with children have to stand in line for hours to get humanitarian aid. In this context, many refugees are curious to learn more about evacuating their relatives from Ukrainian-controlled territory to Ukraine itself via announced humanitarian corridors.
Russian propagandist: "But it’s important to understand: it was the Ukes who crossed our border and took the conscripts captive, and even killed some of them. And we, the Russian army, didn’t cross their borders. We haven’t crossed the new Ukrainian border anywhere" 🥴
Parents of Russian conscripts who disappeared amid Ukraine’s cross-border assault say pro-war activists are pressuring them to keep silent — Meduza
Journalists from iStories have used open sources to identify 129 non-mobilized Russian conscripts who have disappeared or been captured by the Ukrainian army during its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. Parents of these conscripts told iStories that the Russian Defense Ministry hasn’t provided any information about their children — but pro-war activists have contacted them to urge them not to speak publicly about the missing. In English, Meduza shares key takeaways from the outlet’s report.
"police officers are promised a bonus of 10,000 rubles [$110] for each detainee who signs a contract with the Ministry of Defense" - oh yeah, definitely no potential for abuse there!
FT reports Ukraine telegraphing fears of an attack from Kursk was a ruse: "A cover story was also hatched. Ukrainian officials began to warn in mid-summer that Russia was building up forces across the border from the Sumy region, implying Putin may seek to extend a “buffer zone” to protect Russia’s border regions from Ukrainian fire"
"Several western officials and foreign military attaches in Kyiv were also baffled. Why was Ukraine signalling that Russia was amassing forces to potentially invade Sumy when intelligence, including satellite imagery, suggested no such build-up of forces?"
Haven't seen anyone say it out loud, but would be a pretty big black eye for western intel services if #Ukraine really caught them by surprise, not to mention a feather in Ukraine's cap to pull one over on FVEY
Possible some elements did see it coming and aren't talking, but the recent track record of senior officials blabbing to do reputation management on background suggests it's closely held if so
Meanwhile, Zelensky just today says "Ukraine's operation in Russia's Kursk Oblast has helped prevent the occupation of Sumy Oblast and its regional center, the city of Sumy" ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
(Quite possible the Russians planned to do Sumy next if their Kharkiv "buffer zone" operation had gone better)
UP with some firsthand accounts of the Kursk operation: "I’ll also say this: people have to know that this is not easy. The hype around it, the memes and the jokes, is inappropriate. This operation has cost us a lot. But if we’re still doing it, it’s useful to us"
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/08/22/7471343/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/08/22/7471343/
Shahed hunting, Mi-8 door gunner edition
Seems like a force specifically set up for this mission be done very cheaply with smaller civilian helicopters, or light fixed wing aircraft. Basically the "mobile fire team" concept, but with much greater mobility. Gotta have good deconfliction with the SAM crews though 😬
Things that make you go hrim 🤔
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-tests-its-first-ballistic-missile-zelensky-says/
simonbp@reedmideke Of all the countries in the world that have the native talent to build ballistic missiles, Ukraine is near the top (it's only slight exaggeration to say that the Soviet space program was entirely run by Ukrainians). The fact that it's taken so long is probably a sign that it's not rushed.
@simonbp Yeah, was just about to add, in a lot of ways they're in a better positioned than other recent entries to the club like Iran and DPRK. Having major parts of the industry repeatedly bombed doesn't help, and given the dire budget situation it might be a painful tradeoff vs funding front line stuff, but it's not a surprise. Reznikov reportedly said it was funded in 2023 https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-develops-its-own-long-range-missile/