Reed MidekeSo, you heard the French busted some dude for plotting to disrupt the Olympics? Well "The Insider can confirm that Kirill Griaznov, who revealed his plans in a drunken conversation over dinner on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast, has extensive ties to FSB and GRU officers. Griaznov has been arrested by French security services, who found sufficient evidence to charge him with espionage" 🥂 https://theins.press/en/politics/273350
Michelin Red Star: The Insider reveals identity of arrested Russian chef-agent who planned “destabilizing” ...
A Russian lawyer-turned-chef who once appeared on a dating show back in his homeland was directed by the Kremlin’s intelligence services to stage “large-scale” acts of “destabilization” at the opening of the Olympic Games in France on July 26, The Insider has learned. The Insider can confirm that Kirill Griaznov, who revealed his plans in a drunken conversation over dinner on the Bulgarian Black Sea coast, has extensive ties to FSB and GRU officers. Griaznov has been arrested by French security services, who found sufficient evidence to charge him with espionage.
Alleged #Ukraine jet ski based #USV washed up on the Turkish coast near Istanbul. IIRC, in previous reports, jet skis were described as an early effort superseded by things like Magura 5 and Sea Baby. This one doesn't obviously look like it's been drifting for many months though, so maybe they're still preferred for some missions. Waterproofing all those external electronics boxes and connectors seems like it might be challenging
Also, uh, if a jet ski shows up looking like this, maybe don't go poking it until EOD gives the all clear 😬
Multi-billion dollar mis-valuation once is embarrassing, but twice?! 🤦
From the GAO comment sounds like different parties disagreeing about how things are valued, rather than actual errors in the books: "efforts to properly value defense articles for drawdown are hampered because the Foreign Assistance Act does not clearly define certain terms and DOD lacks PDA-specific valuation guidance"
https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-finds-accounting-errors-worth-2-billion-in-aid-for-ukraine/
"GAO is recommending that Congress consider clarifying the definition of “value” as it relates to defense articles provided under PDA" https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-24-106934.pdf
Shot: "DSCA’s 1000 System is the official system of record for presidential drawdown data … there is sometimes a delay between the release of an EXORD and the update or creation of the record in the system, and the system is not capable of displaying summary-level information in a manner that is easy to understand. To address the limitations with the 1000 System, DSCA developed the Presidential Determination Tracker (PD Tracker)"
Chaser: "According to a DSCA official, DSCA has procedures for compiling, entering, reviewing, and validating the valuation data in the PD Tracker, all of which are performed by the one individual who manages the PD Tracker"
So maybe I'm not reading GAO-ese correctly, but I get the distinct impression there is *one* poor E-3 somewhere tracking $25B in drawdown in PD_Tracker.xls
2nd chaser: "However, this official stated that it would be beneficial to document these procedures for consistency in performance as well as continuity in the event of personnel turnover"
From the report (https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-24-106934.pdf) it sounds like a lot of this is just regular bureaucratic SNAFU, in a large part because the "value" to be used for PDA wasn't clearly defined in the law. As the GAO helpfully illustrates, which definition you use matters
Signs everything is going according to plan on day 886 of your three-day special military operation "In Siberia, volunteers started collecting body bags, but after the effort was publicized on social media and in the press, local authorities strongly requested that they be removed from the list of necessary items" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-july-26-28-2024
Yesterday, Russian telegram channels were mostly dismissive of Ukrainian involvement in that recent Tuareg ambush which took out a bunch of wagnerites. Today, Ukraine is bragging that they helped 🤨
NYT digs into #Russia #Ukraine sanctions evasion. Notably this is based on customs data, so doesn't even touch on more clandestine approaches which may be in use https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/russia-sanctions-chips.html?unlocked_article_code=1._E0.nugM._T4CuNZgHotL&smid=url-share
Famously anti-immigrant Orban makes an exception for Russians and Belarusians 🤔 https://kyivindependent.com/hungarys-decision-to-ease-visa-restrictions-for-russians-increases-risk-of-spying-leading-eu-party-says/
Hungary's decision to ease visa restrictions for Russians increases risk of spying, leading EU party says
Earlier in July, various media sources reported that Hungary had quietly changed the rules for its National Card program to allow Russian and Belarusian citizens to enter the country in a streamlined visa-acquisition process that does away with enhanced security checks or other restrictions.
I'd pay cash money to see the look on Reagan's face if he saw that last item
Our cyberpunk future is here: #UAV cell site simulators for psyops
"A Ukrainian security official … said the Russians frequently sent large numbers of text messages from devices attached to an Orlan-10 long-range reconnaissance drone which can penetrate dozens of kilometres into Ukrainian airspace.
The devices, known as Leer-3 systems, imitate cellular base stations that phones automatically connect to in search of coverage, he added" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-vs-ukraine-biggest-war-fake-news-era-2024-07-31/
"A Ukrainian security official … said the Russians frequently sent large numbers of text messages from devices attached to an Orlan-10 long-range reconnaissance drone which can penetrate dozens of kilometres into Ukrainian airspace.
The devices, known as Leer-3 systems, imitate cellular base stations that phones automatically connect to in search of coverage, he added" https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-vs-ukraine-biggest-war-fake-news-era-2024-07-31/
Though TBH I'm not sure how reliable that claim is. Seems like there would be easier ways to text bomb and higher value uses of the reported capability. OTOH given the Russians track record, that's not necessarily a strong argument they didn't do it
Not there was any real doubt, but once again, after years of denying they had any do with murderer Vadim Krasikov, #Russia admits he was an FSB agent who previously worked on Putin's security detail https://kyivindependent.com/krasnikov-fsb-agent/
Morozovsk airbase, home of Russian bombers some 300 km from #Ukraine controlled territory got hit for the 3rd time in the last several months, and appears to be very on fire https://t.me/etorostov/61142
Это Ростов новости
‼️ ВСУ совершили одну из самых массированных атак на Ростовскую область. Сильнее всего пострадал Морозовский район. Взрывы были также слышны в Ростове, Батайске, Таганроге, Азове, Каменске. Повреждения получили склады в Каменском и Морозовском районах и нефтехранилище под Каменском. Службы ликвидируют возгорания. Информация о пострадавших уточняется. (с) Василий Голубев 👉Подпишись на самый оперативный канал Ростова 📨Присылай свои новости в ЭтоРостов!
Rybar "No losses were reported among the flight crew or aircraft" at Morozovsk (https://t.me/rybar/62399)
The aircraft (https://t.me/russianocontext/4229)
Рыбарь
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Украинские формирования в очередной раз осуществили массированный налет дронами на объекты в тыловых и приграничных регионах России. ▪️Два дрона попали в одну из многоэтажек в микрорайоне Болховский в городе Орел. Учитывая, что оба попадания пришлись в одно здание, вероятнее всего, беспилотники летели по заранее установленному маршруту. Позднее в области было сбито еще 17 БЛА, обошлось без последствий. ▪️В Ростовской области сбито свыше 50 дронов. В очередной раз целью для атаки стал аэродром Морозовск. Попадание пришлось по складу боеприпасов на территории аэродрома, вызвавшее мощную детонацию. О потерях среди летного состава или бортов не сообщалось. Еще одна группа беспилотников атаковала нефтебазу «Комбинат «Атлас» Росрезерва, как минимум один из резервуаров горит до сих пор. В Сети вновь было опубликовано множество кадров с мест, что позволило противнику установить точное место прилета. ▪️В приграничных регионах была атакована нефтебаза в городе Губкин Белгородской области, возгорание на территории которой оперативно ликвидировали. Также отражен налет дронов на объекты в Курске и области, сбито по меньшей мере шесть беспилотников. ▪️Несколько БЛА было перехвачено в Воронежской и Рязанской областях, а также в акватории Азовского моря и Краснодарском крае, обошлось без жертв и последствий на земле. ❗️В очередной раз стоит напомнить, что публикация в отдельных региональных телеграм-каналах «кадров с мест» без минимальной обработки позволяет противнику более качественно проводить оценку эффективности своих атак. Таким образом украинское командование может корректировать планы для будущих налетов, исходя из полученных сведений в открытых источниках, что гораздо быстрее и безопаснее, нежели работа агентурной сети ВСУ на местах. Карта в высоком разрешении English version #Белгород #Воронеж #карта #Краснодар #Курск #Орел #Россия #Ростов #Рязань #Украина @rybar Поддержать нас
#Ukraine FPV #UAV hits a Russian Mi-28. Outcome not seen, but according the Russians damage resulted in a forced landing https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-fpv-drones-allegedly-hits-russian-helicopter/
Ukrainian FPV drone hit Russian Mi-28 helicopter in 'historic' feat, source says
The drone operated by the Special Operations Center "A" of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) managed to hit the helicopter's tail rotor, the source said, calling it "a unique special operation in military history."
As noted Sternenko's post, the video shows three different attempts. Also "We also have a LOT of videos of Orlans, Zala and other wings being shot down. However, there is currently a total high command ban on such publications and we will abide by it until lifted" 🤨
STERNENKO
ПЕРШЕ У ІСТОРІЇ УРАЖЕННЯ ГЕЛІКОПТЕРА ДРОНОМ У ПОВІТРІ! Воїни підрозділу М2 Центру спецоперацій СБУ змогли вчора завдати удару по російському Мі-28 довгим FPV, на який ви раніше донатили. На жаль, інформації про подальшу долю гвинтокрила немає. Також на відео ще 2 спроби заходу на вертикальних росіян. Цей результат – кропітка робота інженерів, операторів та ваших донатів. Дякую! Щоб таке ставалось частіше, закидуйте на Небесний русоріз - https://send.monobank.ua/jar/88inaAFaZG Збиватись будуть не тільки розвідувальні крила, а і гелікоптери😎 Відео збиття Орланів, Zala та інших крил у нас також є ДУЖЕ багато. Проте наразі діє повна заборона вищого командування на такі публікації, і ми будемо її дотримуватись до скасування. М2 топ! СБУ задає високу планку!
Often suggested that "bringing the war home" will turn Russians against it, but as BBC's Steve Rosenberg notes "people I met told me that nothing like this had happened before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine: before February 2022 it was all peace and quiet in Belgorod region. But instead of concluding that the [war] had been a mistake, most people I spoke to called for Russia to step up its military action and push deeper into Ukrainian territory"
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4y3529v7vo
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4y3529v7vo
Historically, "rally around the flag" seems like the more common effect, even under regimes that are otherwise not well liked
Not sure what to make of the Kursk operation, but one random observation: Wagner was a heck of a lot less well equipped and made it most of the way to Moscow. Which is not to suggest Ukraine is going to try a similar mad dash, but Russia having difficulty responding away from prepared lines is not unprecedented. OTOH in the Wagner case, it wasn't clear how much of the issue was capability vs the available forces not wanting to fight
OTOH, one could also draw a parallel to the initial Russian advance into Ukraine, which did not age well: "the tactics of Ukrainian formations with an emphasis on high-speed dashes, bypassing fortified areas and maximum expansion of the breakthrough zone without securing at the first stage in its simplicity surpasses the capabilities of the Russian army to counterattack"
https://t.me/rybar/62567
https://t.me/rybar/62567
Рыбарь
❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Курское направление: расширение зоны контроля ВСУ на восток и север от Суджи что известно по состоянию на 17.00 8 августа 2024 года Несмотря на попытки российской объединённой группировки войск (сил) остановить продвижение украинских мобильных групп, масштаб кризиса ширится: к сожалению, тактика украинских формирований с упором на скоростные рывки, обход укрепрайонов и максимальное расширение зоны прорыва без закрепления на первом этапе по своей бесхитростности превосходит пока возможности российской армии к контратакам. 🔻В Суджанском районе зона условного контроля украинских формирований расширилась до 30 км вдоль дороги Дьяконово — Суджа. ▪️Очаги сопротивления российской армии отрезают и обходят по рокадным дорогам. После занятия Казачьей Локни на севере, а также Мирного и Бондаревки на юге украинские формирования вошли в Мартыновку и связали находившиеся там войска боем. После этого был взят населённый пункт Круглик. Одновременно с этим мобильная группа ВСУ двинулась по трассе дальше, дойдя до Большого Солдатского и завязав бой в населённом пункте. Поступают сообщения о том, что бои с ДРГ противника проходят и дальше по трассе. ▪️В 15 км к югу от Льгова идут ожесточённые бои в окружающих населённых пунктах. ▪️В условиях активного задействования вражеского РЭБ на отдельных участках по-прежнему царит «туман войны», поэтому говорить о полном разгроме опорных пунктов, которые прошёл или обошёл противник, преждевременно. 🔻В Кореневском районе ВСУ не оставляют попыток занять административный центр. Одновременные бои велись на въезде в Коренево, а также предпринимались попытки занять Ольговку с Кремяным. Для части украинских войск, наступающих на этом участке, необходимо как сковать силы ВС РФ боем, так и прорваться к трассе Рыльск — Льгов для того, чтобы расширить масштаб оперативного кризиса ВС РФ и растянуть силы российских войск. 📌Одновременно украинские формирования уже начали окапывание на достигнутых рубежах, вводя второй эшелон. Захват Суджи стал воодушевляющим фактором для ВСУ, которым они сейчас пытаются перебить потери и продемонстрировать, что игра стоит свеч. Самой большой проблемой организации обороны на Курском тактическом направлении по-прежнему остаётся разрозненность подразделений и нехватка должного количества сил, которые сейчас якобы снимают с других направлений. При этом российские информационные ресурсы, которые наперегонки пишут названия бригад и дивизий, которые вот-вот придут (но всё не приходят) добавляют хаоса в информационное пространство. Карта в высоком разрешении English version #дайджест #карта #Курск #Россия #Украина @rybar Поддержать нас
Following Morozovsk, #Ukraine appears to have hit ammunition at Lipetsk Air Base "Meanwhile, the military airfield in Lipetsk has been exploding for about an hour", possibly complicating Russian air support in Kursk
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/65198
https://t.me/Crimeanwind/65198
🔥 looks like a munitions storage area. Visible layers show cloud cover so we may only be seeing the hottest part
Astra reports four settlements evacuated 'due to the detonation of "explosive objects"'
https://t.me/astrapress/61498
https://t.me/astrapress/61498
ASTRA
Все 4 населенных пункта, жителей которых эвакуируют под Липецком из-за детонации «взрывоопасных объектов», находятся рядом с военным аэродромом После атаки БПЛА на Липецк на местном военном аэродроме, вероятно, загорелись военные склады. Об этом свидетельствуют данные очевидцев и видео с мест. 🌱 Прислать фото/видео/информацию: @redastrabot Резервный канал ASTRA: https://t.me/astrapress2
"amid this wartime crackdown on dissent, Russia has witnessed the return of punitive psychiatry, one of the darkest means of repression in the Soviet toolkit" https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/09/compulsory-medical-measures
‘Compulsory medical measures’ How punitive psychiatry returned to Russia in wartime — Meduza
With Russian political prisoners making headlines for going free, it’s important to shine a light on those still stuck in the system. Hundreds of people are languishing in prisons for opposing Russia’s war against Ukraine, not to mention the thousands of Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war Moscow is holding hostage. What’s more, amid this wartime crackdown on dissent, Russia has witnessed the return of punitive psychiatry, one of the darkest means of repression in the Soviet toolkit. For the independent media cooperative Bereg, journalist Kristina Safonova set out to investigate how political prisoners in Russia end up in the psychiatric system and why it’s so hard to get them out. This translation of her reporting has been abridged for length and clarity.
fighterbomber assures us that the main munition dump at Lipetsk turning into a smoking crater is no big deal (I suspect it's broadly true, it was much farther from the rest of the base than the one Morozovsk so it's possible the rest of the infrastructure escaped damage) https://t.me/fighter_bomber/17685
Fighterbomber
Хохлы оперативно запилили ОК результатов атаки аэродрома в Липецкой области. Ну т.е. как и говорилось, самолёты целы, личный состав жив, аэродром функционирует штатно. А бомбосклад на любом военном аэродроме специально строится в таком месте, где в случае пожара на нем или там детонации ущерб был минимальным. Да. Боеприпасы разлетаются при детонации. Да это неприятно. Бомбосклад это полянка обнесенная колючей проволокой на которой штабелями сложены АСП. Ну и техпомещения для различных хознужд. Или без оных. Просто куча бомб в одном месте. Бомбы это расходник. Край завтра на аэродроме возникнет новая полянка с такой-же горой бомб. Уверен хохлы не заметили уменьшения ударов авиации после этого, а скорее наоборот. Это не значит, что это прям херня и пренебречь. Но весь этот склад намного дешевле стоимости самого дешманского боевого самолета. Или человеческой жизни. Так что норм. Легко отделались.
Haven't seen anything outside of loose twitter talk suggesting Ukraine intends to attack KNPP, but it should go without saying it would be every bit as stupid, dangerous and deserving of condemnation as Russia's attack on ZNPP. This is not a case where "the other guy did it first" should carry any weight
https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-chief-calls-for-restraint-to-ensure-nuclear-safety-at-kursk-nuclear-power-plant/
https://kyivindependent.com/iaea-chief-calls-for-restraint-to-ensure-nuclear-safety-at-kursk-nuclear-power-plant/
IAEA chief calls for restraint as fighting remains ongoing 'in the vicinity' of Kursk Nuclear Power Plant
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi called on both Kyiv and Moscow to "exercise maximum restraint" in order to avoid a nuclear accident as fighting is reportedly ongoing in the region around the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant (KNPP).
Supercut of a bunch of #Ukraine FPV on Russian recon #UAV kills. Seems like a case where automated machine vision based terminal guidance could be pretty straightforward and effective
Also hope Ukraine is thinking about how they're going to counter this when the Russians inevitably follow suit
https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/morski-pihotyntsi-fpv-dronamy-zbyly-9-rozviduvalnyh-bpla-rf/
On day 900 of the three-day special military operation, everything is going according to plan: "Ukrainian troops now up to 30km inside Russia, Moscow says" https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crkm08rv5m0o
"Refugees evacuated from Kursk Oblast will be resettled in the Russian-occupied territories in Zaporizhzhia Oblast" - Oh, you lost your home in the war, how would you like to travel hundreds of miles (overland, because the airspace is all closed) to go live in another war zone?
Russia to evacuate refugees from Kursk Oblast to Russian-occupied territory of Zaporizhzhia Oblast
Yevhen Balytskyi, a Russian proxy leader operating in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, suggested equipping "sanatoriums and boarding houses on the shores of the Azov Sea, located from Berdiansk to Kyrylivka."
Back in mid July, Budanov made a strange statement about Russia planning a new attack "from the north" https://kyivindependent.com/russia-will-attack-ukraine-again-from-the-north-budanov-says/ (which Zelensky later sort of walked back https://kyivindependent.com/budanovs-russian-offensive-comments-a-little-misunderstood-zelensky-says/)
Was that a cover explanation so the Russians would believe troops moving to the Kursk border were due to Ukraine worrying about an attack, rather planning their own? 🤔
Russia will attack Ukraine again from the north, Budanov says
Military intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov refused to specify if he was talking about an offensive in the oblasts of Sumy or Chernihiv so as not to "provoke panic" but insisted indications were already present that a new attack was imminent.
I initially thought the offensive might have been done to preempt the attack Budanov predicted, but the state of the Russian forces they encountered doesn't seem to support that
NYT: 'A few Russians noticed [the mid-July buildup]. A report was submitted to Russian military leadership about a month before the attack saying that “forces had been detected and that intelligence indicated preparations for an attack,” Andrei Gurulyov, a prominent member of Russia’s Parliament and a former high-ranking army officer, said after the incursion “But from the top came the order not to panic, and that those above know better'
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kursk-offensive.html?unlocked_article_code=1.C04.kJK0.wpNcmnVoJl1M&smid=url-share
#GiftArticle #GiftLink #Ukraine
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-kursk-offensive.html?unlocked_article_code=1.C04.kJK0.wpNcmnVoJl1M&smid=url-share
#GiftArticle #GiftLink #Ukraine
'Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defense minister, told New Lines that “most likely, the Russians decided we were congregating troops around the area to prevent a Russian attack on Sumy”'
https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/how-ukraine-caught-putins-forces-off-guard-in-kursk-and-why/
https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/how-ukraine-caught-putins-forces-off-guard-in-kursk-and-why/
The invasion "exacerbates a dilemma that the Kremlin has faced since the start of its full-scale invasion: whether to portray [the war] as an existential fight to the death with the west and a prelude to world war three, or whether to suggest it is a local conflict fully under control and nothing for anyone to worry about … state-controlled media has pushed both of these contradictory narratives at various times, but has favoured the latter story over the past week" https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/14/does-the-old-man-still-have-it-in-him-how-will-putin-respond-to-kursk-invasion
Response to the earlier offer to resettle Kursk refugees in occupied Zaporizhzhia went about as you might expect "Local residents left several outraged comments under Smirnov's social media post, expressing concern that fighting is also ongoing in the Zaporizhzhia region" https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-aug-12-13-2024
Mark MacKinnon suggests Ukraine actually thought Russia was planning to attack from Kursk, and only decided on their own attack after they realized the Russian shelling was a diversion 🤨
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-ukraine-russia-kursk-incursion/ (paywalled, and it would be wrong to point out that a paywall was implemented by removing the content with JS so I definitely won't do that)
This just seems like an embarrassingly silly denial "Such an act can only be carried out with extensive technical and financial resources ... and who possessed all this at the time of the bombing? Only Russia"
Whether or not Ukraine did blow up Nordstream, the suggestion they *couldn't* have done it is just totally at odds with the many other successful, daring covert ops they've carried out with limited resources
Ukraine presidential adviser denies Ukraine's involvement in Nord Stream explosions
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak denied his country's involvement in explosions which damaged the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and instead pointed the finger at Russia in comments to Reuters on Thursday.
And this is just insulting our intelligence "[Podolyak said] that Ukraine did not gain any strategic or tactical advantage from the blasts"
Pretty obvious why Ukraine would like to limit Russian gas exports that don't produce transit fees for Ukraine, and far less obvious why Russia would want to blow up a pipeline that they could just turn off at any time, leaving them with the option of turning it back on as bargaining chip
Pretty obvious why Ukraine would like to limit Russian gas exports that don't produce transit fees for Ukraine, and far less obvious why Russia would want to blow up a pipeline that they could just turn off at any time, leaving them with the option of turning it back on as bargaining chip
"2,300 ships carrying over 60 million tonnes of cargo used Ukraine's Black Sea corridor over last year" - Gotta wonder if Putin regrets blowing up the much more limited grain deal https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/08/15/7470558/
"We haven’t seen a substantial move [of Russian troops] just yet, and we can’t tell whether that’s just because they’re only just getting started moving forces, or whether they just don’t have the forces to move"
Wild, uninformed prediction: Russia will try to retake Kursk territories with the minimum number of troops required, scavenged from the less hot parts of the front line, while maintaining tempo in Donetsk
Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied Ukraine to counter Kursk offensive, US officials say
Russia appears to have diverted several thousand troops from occupied territory inside Ukraine to counter a surprisingly successful Ukrainian offensive inside Russian borders in a move that potentially weakens Moscow’s war effort, two senior US officials told CNN.
This will probably result in several costly failed attempts, assuming (as I expect) Ukraine tries to hold a significant part. There's skepticism Ukraine can hold territory: "western officials familiar with the latest intelligence cautioned that Ukraine is extremely unlikely to be able to hold the territory for long" but given some time to entrench I'm not convinced defending 10 km over the border will be that different from defending at the border
Russia could try to just contain the Kursk incursion and double down on the Donbas front, forcing Ukraine to lose territory or withdraw to reinforce there, but I suspect Putin's ego will not allow that, and various levels of Russian command will produce rosy reports about how things are going and how quickly they can turn it around
Putin could bite the bullet on another mobilization wave. Would likely be politically and economically costly, but defending Russian territory is about as good an excuse as he's likely to get. OTOH, it would take significant time, and throwing waves of minimally-trained mobiks at the problem could drastically increase the political cost
If Russia draws significant troops from the lower priority fronts like Kharkiv, Kupiansk and the south west, that would probably be less welcome to Ukraine than affecting the main effort, but could still provide opportunities. OTOH, Ukraine will have very limited manpower to exploit them
IMO, one big question is how costly it will be for Ukraine to defend, and if it goes bad, whether there will be political room to change course before it turns into a giant Krynky style meatgrinder where they throw forces at it long after the original goals have become untenable
Another is how close Ukraine's mobilization efforts are to producing significant numbers. There's been rumors of new brigades in the fall, and being able to shore up other parts of the front or rotate in less elite troops for defense could be make a big difference
(again, this is all wild, uninformed speculation, primarily posted so I can look back later and see how dumb it was)
A lot of people thought the Kursk operation was nuts, apparently including the commander of one of the brigades involved 😬 "On the evening of 28 July, soldiers from the 80th Brigade contacted Ukrainska Pravda with a rather sudden request for us to publish an appeal in support of their then commander, Colonel Emil Ishkulov, who was facing dismissal…"
"All that was known about this command decision was that Ishkulov … had refused to carry out a task set by Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He said it was disproportionate to the human resources of the brigade … on 6 August, it became clear exactly what Ishkulov had refused to do when Ukrainian forces – including the 80th Brigade, under the leadership of a new commander, Pavlo Rozlach – went on a raid into Russian territory"
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/08/14/7470441/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/08/14/7470441/
TASS approvingly quotes Jill Stein saying "All Russia wanted was Ukraine's neutrality. It's very simple" and Russia's invasion of #Ukraine "could easily have been avoided if the U.S. sat down at the negotiating table before it or did not sabotage the peace agreement reached at the beginning of the conflict" https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/21628817
Sibrosan@reedmideke Shill Stein?
Hromadske also suggests Budanov's statements about an attack form the north were deception "In May, the [Budanov] said that the Russians might open a front in Sumy Oblast for the second time. The spy chief voiced a similar warning in July" https://hromadske.ua/en/war/229589-ukraines-bold-gamble-early-impact-of-kursk-offensive
Ukraine's bold gamble: Early impact of Kursk offensive
The advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kursk Oblast has been making the headlines of the world's leading media for more than a week. No one seems to have expected such a step from Ukraine. Although the military goals of the large-scale operation are still hidden in the fog of war, its political achievements are already taking shape. While the Ukrainian army is taking control of Russian towns and villages, China is cautiously calling on "the parties to the conflict to refrain from escalation," and Western countries are pretending that nothing extraordinary is happening. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is frantically searching for a way to localize the situation without stopping its offensive in eastern Ukraine. Read the article by hromadske to learn how the Kursk operation threatens the stability of the Putin regime, whether it is possible to exchange territories with Russia, and how this offensive is changing the attitude of Kyiv’s partners to the war.
H I Sutton reviews the state of the #Ukraine #USV war
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/uncrewed-platforms-have-been-critical-ukraines-success-black-sea
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/uncrewed-platforms-have-been-critical-ukraines-success-black-sea
Not *entirely* sold on the idea that doing televised press conferences with defectors is a great plan. May be less risky for this guy than helicopter pilot who tried to retire to Spain, since he's supposedly signing up with the Freedom of Russia Legion and will be screwed if the Russians capture him anyway but still… https://kyivindependent.com/defected-russian-soldier-reveals-he-spied-for-ukraine-injured-his-commander/
Nepali activist Kritu Bhandari "managed to verify the identities of over 699 Nepali men who enlisted in the Russian army … at least 117 Nepalis have been injured in the war … at least 41 Nepalis who have died in the war"
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/21/the-worst-decision-you-can-make
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/08/21/the-worst-decision-you-can-make
‘The worst decision you can make’ How Russia lured hundreds of men from Nepal to fight in Ukraine, leaving many of their families in financial ruin — Meduza
In the summer of 2023, an unlikely trend began dominating TikTok feeds in Nepal: dozens of videos showed Nepali men bragging about having joined the Russian army. According to these foreign fighters, the service conditions were comfortable, the work was safe, and the salaries were higher than anything on offer back in Nepal. To many young Nepali men sitting at home, moving to Russia seemed like a no-brainer; all they had to do was take out a loan to pay a middleman for a visa and a plane ticket. What they didn’t realize was that they were only seeing footage from training centers, where Nepali recruits spend a few weeks at most before being sent into the line of fire. Hundreds, and possibly thousands, of Nepali men have enlisted in the Russian army over the last two years, and at least dozens of them have been killed. Some of these men were the sole breadwinners for their wives and children. Irina Kravtsova, a special correspondent for Novaya Gazeta, traveled to Nepal to hear the stories of these men, the families they left behind, and the activist leading the fight for the government to intervene. Meduza shares an abridged translation of her report.
Back in May, it was noted Russia built some hangers at Marinovka air base in Volgograd (presumably) to protect aircraft from #Ukraine's drones…
https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112527456837287216
https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/112527456837287216
How did that work out?
(these were undoubtedly not expected to survive a direct hit, it's possible they did save some aircraft from shrapnel damage)
MT Anderson (@MT_Anderson) on X
🇷🇺Marinovka Air Base🇷🇺 ... and the 'AFTER' image (30cm from 22 Aug 2024 07:58 UTC) Still analyzing but given the interest, I shared what I thought were the areas that got hit Once again, less about airframes. Good amount of destruction around the hangars and just north of there
OTOH, those hangers probably make an excellent target for a relatively simple DIY electro-optical terminal guidance system