Via Sherrilyn Ifill:
Listen pundits and Dem influencers. Your willingness to continue beating this horse is becoming…weird. Ask yourself why most prominent Black leaders & ordinary Black ppl are for #Biden staying in. We love Kamala, so what could be the reason? Maybe we see America through a different lens. One that allows us to see things that you don’t. Your apparent dismissal of that possibility is very revealing. And not in a good way.
@GottaLaff
I don't see a huge gap here…
Black voters: 53% agree that "Joe Biden is just too old to be an effective president," 32% strongly.
vs.
2020 Biden voters: 62% agree, 32% strongly.
(Black voters differ from other racial groups because there are way fewer Republicans.)
The crosstabs for NYT polls have too frequently looked silly compared to other high quality polls.
I would not trust their subgroup slices without corroborating numbers from at least one decent poll specifically targeting the subgroup.
Why polls aren't working, and the very bad idea that they want to fill in for them:
https://ash.harvard.edu/articles/using-ai-for-political-polling/
@GottaLaff @Carwil Definitely the one that talked to a randomized sample and normalized to population makeup rather than one person who talked to a limited subset of people without controlling for the demographics, age, and propensity to vote of that group.
Individual leaders have weight but high quality polling doesn’t reflect the ideology of the pollsters any more than high quality elections reflect the ideology of the vote counters.
@GottaLaff
Asked more specifically, "Do you think Joe Biden should remain the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, or should there be a different Democratic nominee for president?"
Black voters: 47 to 43, different nominee
Biden '20 voters: 49 to 44, different nominee
"a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted during the same period as the Times poll found that 42 percent of Black voters think Biden should not run for president, while 58 percent think he should. Overall, 69 percent of voters think Biden shouldn't run, but only 41 percent of Democrats said the same."
This implies a very low reliability in the polls. This is either a systemic problem with the polls, or a problem with the skew of different pollsters.
Those are differences _way_ outside of statistical noise.
@Carwil @GottaLaff That's a misleading question unless it names somebody as the alternative. As the question is asked, voters are free to imagine they can snap their fingers and get whoever they want.
* I'd also want to know how many people gave up on the poll halfway through?
* And I'd also want to know if the people who refused to take the poll were much different from the people who actually took the poll?
@gpk Good points. There's another one that @msignorile made on his show: Those who respond, are they enthusiastic about a replacement? Or are they thinking, sure, why not, but not enthusiastic enough to call on someone to step in. I'm phrasing that wrong, but it was something like that. IOW, not passionate about Biden leaving the race.
@Carwil @GottaLaff That's called a "push poll" and it should be viewed with tremendous skepticism considering that the NYT has been on the warpath against Biden since the debate.
You will get a different result if you ask voters, "Should Biden stay in the race."
From my view the loudest voices who are demanding Biden go now are those who don't want any possibility of a woman, especially one of mixed ancestry, becoming President ...
Being one step behind the man is OK, especially if it garners black votes ... but becoming President ...? Nah ...
It's entirely predictable:
Biden: let's tax large corporations and billionaires.
LC+B: f*ck you, old maniac. Watch this.
@GottaLaff Some pundits and celebrities over on Twitter are being first-rate class-A-number-one bastards about this. They've gone from concern trolls to outright gamergate-level internet bullying.
A lot of them are "conservative Never Trumpers" that were always in this only for the money and attention, but some of them seem to be liberal voices, like Rob Reiner. I don't know what to do about people like Reiner. We need celebrities on our side.
Do you think, I'm just asking that those of us who think Harris would be a better candidate than Biden see things that you don't and your dismissal of us is problematic?
I don't pretend that I have any influence over anyone and I will vote for anyone who's running against Trump.
@ThisAccountKillsFascists @GottaLaff
Who is 'us' again?
This #Mayonnaisian in Tacoma knows her history
Changing horses at this point has not worked EVER, & #Project2025 is becoming known, so #CorporateMedia is pulling out all the stops to preserve shareholder's #TaxBreaks
@PeachMcD You can't "know your history" about something that has never happened in American history. By that logic, I could say that I know my history and it shows that an 81-year nominee who displayed signs of cognitive decline during a live debate and says he can't handle events after 8 PM anymore never wins.
As for changing horses, a lot of people are confusing cause and effect. It's like saying that you're always sick when you go to the doctor, so you should stop going to the doctor.
@ThisAccountKillsFascists I respect & hope that you are arguing in good faith but I completely disagree
Solidarity from Tacoma anyway 
@PeachMcD I assure you that I am arguing in good faith. I cannot emphasize enough how critical it is that the Democrats win and MAGA lose.
I know that we are riven by a disagreement right now about tactics. But I appreciate that you see that we're all on the same side of the fight.
@ThisAccountKillsFascists
Your handle is a clue 😁
I am not & never was a fan of either JB or KH
I believe that JB's continued reaching out to imaginary 'moderate Republicans' instead of to his base will end up with him being remembered as the Neville Chamberlain of our generation
That said, the replacement of McGovern in 72 is a precedent I have no desire to repeat & I think the division being fanned by #CorporateMedia is meant to f with turnout Dems need
@hu_logic First, they're far from unanimous in their support. At least two polls have already been posted in the replies showing that a substantial portion of the Black community wants to replace Biden as nominee.
Second, there is no particular reason to believe that Black politicians have unique insight into how to win this election.
1. Biden polls better than any other alternative
2. He's not dropping out
3. No one else has offered to be a replacement
4. The virtual roll-call vote is in ~2 weeks, and delegates are already pledged to vote for the winner of their state's primary
This is a non-starter, and the only reason to bang on about it is if you're trying to push the "Dems in Disarray" narrative to suppress turnout.
@textualdeviance This is telling: "the only reason to bang on about it is if you're trying to push the "Dems in Disarray" narrative to suppress turnout."
A lot of Democrats are suddenly falling into conspiracy theories of their own. As I've said before, they seem to think that the rest of us didn't hear the debate, can't see that Biden is avoiding interviews, and can't read that he's been losing all year. No, it must be that we're all part of the NYT conspiracy to bring him down.
Nancy Pelosi on Morning Joe didn't exactly express enthusiasm about Biden staying in the race: "It's up for the president to decide if he's going to run. We're all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running short ... I want him to do whatever he decides to do."
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