#Kenya proposes a treaty to keep the peace in the Horn
#Djibouti and Kenya are currently attempting to mediate tensions that have erupted between #Ethiopia and #Somalia since January. To the Ethiopia-#Somaliland MoU must now be added the Ethiopia-#Puntland high-level bilateral talks, a move taking advantage of the constitutional crisis unfolding in Mogadiscio.
The efforts of #Somalia’s neighbours seem doomed to fail however. Not only Somalia had refused until now all mediation attempts, but it is her staunch resistance to Ethiopian encroachments on her sovereignty and martial language that have so far acted as the best deterrent against both the realization of the MoU and a bilateral war.
On the issue of #Puntland, and contrarily to the expectation of some, Mogadiscio remains likewise unwilling to compromise. It is very likely, on the contrary, that further amendments to the constitution shall be approved shortly at the federal parliament.
Somali nationalism is not only one of the enduring factors of political unity across clans within #Somalia, but Al #Shabaab likewise relies heavily on anti-Ethiopian sentiment in their propaganda. That not only means that Somali president Hassan Sheikh has no interest in bargaining or ceding ground to #Ethiopia on such crucial matters, but that Al Shabaab profits enormously from the tensions of the last few months.
Whether Hassan Sheikh Mohamud decides to give way or goes to war, the effect on Al #Shabaab will be similar, only much larger in scale. The only remaining path for Mogadiscio is the one it has taken until now: Avoiding war at all costs, except that of a compromise.
Meanwhile, #Ethiopia has no interest in burying her — arguably failing — strategic ambiguity on sea access and populist rhetoric at home by signing a treaty that would effectively take away the fragile leverage she may have in gaining access to a commercial port, or by giving up on her newfound dream of a naval base on the #RedSea.
Muse Bihi Abdi plays his political survival in #Somaliland, among multiple crisis, including the secession of #SSC-#Khatumo and an extension of his term. #Puntland is unlikely to bow to Mogadiscio in the middle of a row on the very principle of its very large autonomy and of the terms of power-sharing within the Somali federation.
Mathieu Gotteland