Mastodawn

Andrew Reeves-Hall Mar 20, 2024

"Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory
Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed."

Good piece in Nature this week by Gavin Schmidt covers the extremely anomalous temperatures in 2023, well before El Nino got started as well as the loss of #Antarctic #SeaIce and aerosols...

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00816-z

Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory

Taking into account all known factors, the planet warmed 0.2 °C more last year than climate scientists expected. More and better data are urgently needed.

Stingray's Badger Friend Mar 20, 2024

I gets really scary when it scientists can't explain how rapidly the planet is warming

#ClimateEmergency
#KlimaKrise
#Klimakatastrophe
#ExtrêmeUrgenceClimatique
#KlimaatKrisis
#pollution
#ClimateCrisis
#ClimateAction
#ClimateJustice

Incognitim Mar 20, 2024

@StingrayBadger @Ruth_Mottram 💯

I think our best course of action now is to assume that we are quickly heading into most models' worst case scenarios, and that the time to start implementing major structural changes was yesterday.

It may not be too late yet...but we won't be able to say that for much longer.

Keith Devlin Mar 20, 2024

@Ruth_Mottram Well, from a strictly logical perspective, we are ALWAYS into uncharted territory. But the sentiment is correct. 🤔

Nicole Parsons Mar 20, 2024

Melting methyl clathrates from deep sea deposits & melting permafrost threaten to accelerate global warming.

Fire ice IS something to be very worried about.
https://www.wired.com/story/dont-worry-its-just-fire-ice/

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate

https://www.ncl.ac.uk/press/articles/latest/2023/12/fireice/

Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.

We already have massive forest fires every summer.

What happens when the arctic ocean or Russian tundra catches fire?

https://theconversation.com/frozen-methane-under-the-seabed-is-thawing-as-oceans-warm-and-things-are-worse-than-we-thought-216054

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-fire-ice-climate-methane-deep-ocean.html

Don’t Worry, It’s Just ‘Fire Ice’

Methane hydrate is an ice-like substance you can set on fire. Now scientists have found that more of it may be in danger of melting—and releasing powerful greenhouse gas—than previously realized.

WIRED

Phil Landmeier Mar 20, 2024

@Npars01 @Ruth_Mottram Yes, methane clathrates have been feared for many years. It's probably best not to think about it.

Climate scientists talk about tipping points because there are positive feedback mechanisms that we will trigger if we go beyond certain temperature points. Exactly where those points are is unknown because the problem is too complex for us to analyze completely today. But we know they're there. Clathrates is one of them.

What happens when clathrates at the bottom of the sea decompose? Will we reach that point?

Nicole Parsons Mar 20, 2024

@shuttersparks @Ruth_Mottram

As the polar ice caps melt, it's desalinating the oceans and disrupting cold ocean currents like the Humboldt along the West coast of the Americas.

As cold antarctic & arctic currents start to fail, the lack of circulation will warm the oceans more rapidly.

Melting methane is already happening.

Phil Landmeier Mar 20, 2024

@Npars01 @Ruth_Mottram I'm glad I'm old.

David J. Atkinson Mar 20, 2024

@Ruth_Mottram So, August is when we find out that we are in *really* uncharted climate territory. Are we not already semi-panicking? Why does Gavin Schmidt say we need answers fast? Does he think those answers will change anything? Many of us would like to know when to expect the end-days, but if we are not collectively going to do what is necessary and sufficient to at least prepare humanity for a hot world, then what is the rush? Enjoy yourself, it’s later than you think.

Vesna Manojlović Mar 20, 2024

. @Ruth_Mottram and the conclusion is > More and better data are urgently needed< ?? it reminds me of “This calls for immediate discussion!” From “Life of Brian”

Ruth Mottram Mar 20, 2024

@becha hah, I don't disagree to some extent, but we will need to adapt to climate change and for that we do need to know exactly why this surge occurred, if it really was unforeseen and how likely it is to continue (or repeat).

Lukas 🥔Mar 20, 2024

@Ruth_Mottram @becha Don't you see the narrative that this "call for more data" plays into? At what point will this stop being the conclusion? In 50 years? When will climate scientist say: "This is genocide, we should stop governments from continueing it"? It's technically correct to call more data but also insane.

Vesna Manojlović Mar 20, 2024

@Ruth_Mottram Ruth, I don't think it was unforeseen - Think it was foreseen but it's not a nice message to receive so it was ignored... and I think the measured phenomena fit within certain worse scenarios :( (e.g. RCP 8.5)

Estarriol, Terrorist Dragon Mar 20, 2024

@Ruth_Mottram My suspiciaon is that a tipping point has past and we are now into runaway reaction, without us ever knowing what the balance point was.

Les capsules du prof Lutz Mar 20, 2024

@Ruth_Mottram Isn't James Hansen making the hypothesis that new "cleaner" diesel regulation for maritime transport is a contributing factor to the recent monstrous jump in the global absorbed solar irradiance?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTWUJ8Lvl-U

#AbruptClimateChange

Dr. James E. Hansen in Conversation with Paul Beckwith

YouTube

Vincent Mar 20, 2024

@Ruth_Mottram
Question :
Is it possible to reach expected power reduction with current wars?
Wars energy consumption and wars environment damages are taken into account in climate models?

From my point of view, the very most urgent action is to stop wars around the world... while all "civilized" countries are currently increasing their military equipment.
Sad...