Reed MidekeTwo years into Putin's three day special military operation, BBC and Mediazona have identified over 45,000 individual Russian soldiers killed in #Ukraine from obituaries and news reports, not including LNR/DNR. They estimate the total is over 110,000 https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/counting-russias-dead-in-ukraine
Not all the RU sources are going with the friendly fire story, VChK-OGPU says (google translate): "Sources of the Cheka-OGPU said that the next AWACS A 50 U plane shot down today was most likely hit by a Patriot missile system, and was guided to the target by a mobile small-sized broadband reconnaissance radar, which is deployed on a small UAV and can fly in deep to the rear" 🤔 (I have doubts) https://t.me/vchkogpu/46047
ВЧК-ОГПУ
Источники ВЧК-ОГПУ рассказали, что очередной сбитый сегодня самолет ДРЛО А 50 У, скорее всего, был поражен ракетным комплексом Patriot (Пэтриот), а наводил его на цель мобильный малогабаритный широкополосный радар разведчик, который развернут на небольшом БПЛА и может проводить полет в глубоком тылу . Обнаружить его сигнал очень и очень сложно, при этом такие новинки способны не просто обнаруживать, сопровождать и давать целеуказание, но и различать силуэт цели, определять ее тип визуально. Для ракет Пэтриот 300 км не самое сложное расстояние, шансов уцелеть у самолета АВАКС не было никаких. В настоящее время оцеплено место падения самолета, всех зевак и журналистов выгнали, по центральным федеральным телевизионным каналам прошла команда говорить только о пожаре и больше ничего. Подобных машин в российской армии было не более 10 на момент вторжения в Украину. Восполнять очень сложно, нужен самолет и более 15 тонн электронно комплектной базы, которая в осноаном делается не в РФ.
Meanwhile Baza reported earlier (google translate) "According to preliminary data, two aircraft were shot down in the sky over the Krasnodar Territory.
One of them is a UAV. Data on the second aircraft is being clarified."
A UAV (or operators thinking there was one) could explain the SAM fire
If the HUR map is to be believed, the shootdown location was ~160km from the front line, and indeed, occurred around the closest point. Obviously Ukraine isn't going to park a Patriot launcher right on the front line, but still, stretching the widely reported 160 km range of PAC-2 a bit against a big, fat predictable target doesn't seem like a completely ridiculous idea https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1761101634904453405
Defence intelligence of Ukraine (@DI_Ukraine) on X
💥 Мінус А-50У ― ГУР та Повітряні Сили збили черговий літак рф 🤝 У результаті спільної операції Головного управління розвідки Міністерства оборони України та Повітряних Сил ЗСУ над Азовським морем збили черговий цінний російський літак А-50У. 🔗 https://t.co/XCddds5IaN
Also, if it was a Ukrainian SAM, the northern half of Crimea is potentially under similar threat, though presumably only a smaller portion at any one time given the limited number of batteries
OK one more dumb thought: Did the Russians pick that flight path because they read on wikipedia that PAC-2 max range is 160km? 🤔
Two years and two days into Putin's three day special military operation, stopping NATO expansion is going great https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68405893
"while intoxicated, [an ex Wagnerite] broke into a fellow villager's house and beat him to death with a wooden bat… The court considered as mitigating factors the fact that the defendant has four children and his receipt of the "For Courage" medal for participating in combat operations in Ukraine" and sentenced him to six years, which is about what AWOLs seem to typically get https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-feb-25-26-2024
"On Feb. 17, law enforcement officers detained three members of one family for laying flowers at the monument to victims of political repression in Saint Petersburg" - Subtlety is not really their thing https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-feb-26-27-2024
Ukrainska Pravda has pictures of foreign components from #DPRK KN-23/KN-24 fired at #Ukraine. One pictured is a NXP LPC1759FBD80: A cortex M3 MCU available for a few dollars each in thousand quantities (https://www.nxp.com/part/LPC1759FBD80#/). You are not realistically going to prevent a nation state from obtaining stuff like that
Others:
Siemens V23079A1005B301 ($2 relay https://octopart.com/v23079a1005b301-siemens-8180234)
XP Power JTC0424S15 ($25 DC/DC converter https://www.mouser.com/ProductDetail/XP-Power/JTC0424S15/?qs=w%2Fv1CP2dgqqBM%2FjLtq3a6g%3D%3D)
Fairchild MM74HC244WM (< $1 buffer)
Analog Devices AD2S1205YSTZ (~$25 ADC)
NSK roller bearing (not sure exact part but I bet you can order it at your local auto parts store)
Chance of stopping DPRK from having a front order that stuff in 3rd countries seems like… zero
V23079A1005B301 Siemens - Distributors and Price Comparison | Octopart component search
Find the best pricing for Siemens V23079A1005B301 by comparing bulk discounts from 5 distributors. Octopart is the world's source for V23079A1005B301 availability, pricing, and technical specs and other electronic parts.
Ukraine claims to have downed a bunch of Russian aircraft in the last few days, but lack of acknowledgement or even oblique doomposts from Russian channels since the A-50 is notable
https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-ukraine-downs-su-34/
https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-ukraine-downs-su-34/
The Insider with another wild GRU scoop… this time fugitive fraudster and former Wirecard COO Jan Marsalek
https://theins.press/en/politics/269612
https://theins.press/en/politics/269612
"ISW continues to assess that the reported loss of 15 aircraft and possibly some highly trained pilots in about two weeks is not negligible " - ISW notably avoids assessing how many of those "losses" are real https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2024
Institute for the Study of War
Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on March 2 that Ukrainian forces destroyed one Su-34
As expected (https://mastodon.social/@reedmideke/111620499922975518) #Ukraine is working on arming their #USV fleet with SAMs, among other things https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/4/7444921/
'An "individual error" resulted in a call between high-ranking German military officers being leaked… "The call was held via Webex videoconferencing software, hosted on German army servers, but "not all participants adhered to the secure dial-in procedure as required," Pistorius said.'
Yeah, nah, if you can dial into your classified Webex from a regular line and there isn't a big red flashing warning, that's a policy and/or technology failure too https://kyivindependent.com/german-defense-minister-conversation-leak/
German defense minister: Officer in Singapore using insecure line led to Taurus conversation leak
An "individual error" resulted in a call between high-ranking German military officers being leaked after one officer joined the meeting from abroad via an insecure line, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said at a press conference on March 5.
Though the fact the Russians immediately burned it for propaganda probably puts an upper limit on the value of the content
They do seem to understand that just blaming the junior officer won't cut it "We will take technical and organizational measures so such an incident does not happen again"
Man I hope this works out, telegraphing the whole "buy a bunch of ammo from countries that don't want to be named as directly supplying Ukraine" seems like it could go sideways pretty fast (as the Ecuador deal seems to have)
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/5/7445114/
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/5/7445114/
Oliver Stone's dictator documentary buddy seems charming "Lopatonok declined to answer specific questions on the financing of his earlier films, or how the proposed documentaries with Stone would be financed. After an increasingly combative Lopatonok threatened journalists and their sources, shouting “we’re going after you personally,” and “we’re going to destroy you,” an OCCRP editor ended the interview"
"Asked in an interview with OCCRP why he was focusing his lens on autocrats, Lopatonok said he was simply making movies about his personal heroes"
Points for honestly, I guess? 🤔
Euromaidan Press provides a non Russian propaganda translation of that Taurus conversation, which is quite interesting and covers the kind of political and practical issues you'd expect
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/06/intercept-of-german-generals-planning-taurus-strike-on-crimean-bridge-full-translation/
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/06/intercept-of-german-generals-planning-taurus-strike-on-crimean-bridge-full-translation/
Intercept of German generals planning Taurus strike on Crimean bridge: full translation - Euromaidan Press
Russians tapped into a discussion of German generals discussing a possible Taurus strike on the Crimean bridge. Here is a full translation.
Couple interesting bits: "The limiting factor is the number of Su-24s left, which would be in the single digits"
[not totally clear but limit under discussion seems to relate to how many you'd need to be able to launch in a salvo for enough to get through. But given the timelines discussed, F-16s might change that in relatively short order]
On planning around AD "…because KSA [German military intelligence unit] doesn’t have a clear representation of where all the air defense systems are located.
But the Ukrainians have that, hopefully. Because from what I see with us, only the radar device is shown. But for us to have a clear plan, we really need to look at where the radar and launch devices are located"
It's easy to say #Ukraine should "give up territory for peace" but we should never forget what it really means is condemning people to this
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/06/deportation-re-population-russia-occupied-ukraine-zaporizhzhia
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/06/deportation-re-population-russia-occupied-ukraine-zaporizhzhia
Russia experimenting with wire guided FPV drones? 🤔 Seems limiting, but maybe OK for defensive positions and ambushes. Also shouldn't be too hard to make one that can cut the fiber and fall back to radio if it gets snagged or reaches the range limit, limiting the window for detection and EW disruption
https://www.twz.com/air/russia-now-looks-to-be-using-wire-guided-kamikaze-drones-in-ukraine
Has a been a lot of (not unjustified, IMO) criticism of western governments being over-cautious about escalation, but OTOH, it's always going to look like you could have pushed things further right up until you cross the line into ohshitsville https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/09/politics/us-prepared-rigorously-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-ukraine/index.html
Then again, self serving rationalizations like "we were *this close* to nuclear war but avoided it thanks to our expert escalation management!" are also possible
Long, horrifying Meduza report on reeducation and surveillance programs #Russia inflicts on children kidnapped from #Ukraine
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/11/they-could-start-to-resist
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2024/03/11/they-could-start-to-resist
‘They could start to resist’ How the Russian authorities are working to indoctrinate and digitally surveil deported Ukrainian children — Meduza
In the two years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has forcibly deported thousands of Ukrainian children. While the total number of these deported minors is unknown, Kyiv has reported nearly 20,000. After the children are separated from their families and taken to Russia, the Russian authorities begin working to make them forget about their home country, telling them that their parents aren’t coming to get them and that Russia is their home. To learn how this system works, Meduza special correspondent Lilia Yapparova studied thousands of documents and spoke with employees from Russia’s Education Ministry, the main agency responsible for these “reeducation” measures.
If you wondered how #Ukraine ended up with two broadly similar attack #USV families (#Magura and #SeaBaby), according to this story: "Disputes over quality control, budget, and design specifications between the SBU and the [Magura] developer disrupted the program in 2022, leading the SBU to sever ties and start an independent naval drone project that later resulted in Sea Baby USV … The ousted company then partnered with [HUR]"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/14/magura-v5-naval-drones-to-get-anti-air-and-dive-capabilities/
Magura V5 naval drones to get anti-air and dive capabilities - Euromaidan Press
Ukraine's Magura V5 naval drones, successful in sinking Russian ships, aim for upgrades to improve defense against Russian attack helicopters and ship armament during suicide missions, enhancing their capabilities in challenging Russia's Black Sea Fleet dominance.
So #Ukraine is desperately short of artillery ammunition, but someone has enough long-range Grad variants to shell urban Belgorod on a semi-regular basis? 🤨 Aside from the whole indiscriminate use of explosives in a populated area thing, that seems like a pretty dubious cost/benefit
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68586062
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68586062
Of course, the absurd prohibition against using western weapons on military targets Russia does make it much harder for Ukraine to avoid collateral damage…
"During the [prisoner] exchanges, we conduct a survey of those released from captivity and ask if they have seen representatives from the International Committee of the Red Cross. So far, there has been not one positive response"
(Ukraine does grant ICRC regular access to the POWs they hold)
These companies hiding behind "we have no control of our franchisees" should probably clarify whether they still earn income from them https://kyivindependent.com/russia-is-still-eating-american-burgers-and-sandwiches/
Russians still enjoying American burgers and sandwiches as companies refuse to leave
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, most major Western fast-food chains closed up shop, sold off assets, and exited the Russian market. This was particularly true of the highly visible food sector. Major Western food and drink chains, including McDonald’s, Domino’s Pizza, Starbucks, KFC, Pizza Hut, Hard Rock Cafe, and the Jamie Oliver Group, have all since left Russia. A small cohort of six American fast-food chains decided otherwise. The franchises of Subway, Carl’s Jr., Papa John’s, Costa
Black Sea fleet getting into the decoy game with a painted sub + mock conning tower https://www.twz.com/news-features/submarine-decoy-appears-on-russian-naval-base-pier
Based on similar previous reporting cycles, I'd bet the FT reporting is not wrong, but there's probably more nuance than the original headlines implied. It's obvious major disruption in oil supplies would make it much harder to maintain support in the west (and "neutral" countries). Being forced to choose between that and funding Russia's war machine is a shit trade, but one Ukraine is very familiar with: They're still delivering Russian gas https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/ukraine-says-west-not-pressuring-it-to-end-attacks-on-russian-oil-facilities-00148673
Ukraine targeting Russian refineries rather than crude production minimizes that risk since refinery output mostly goes to the domestic market. But it wouldn't be hard to see people getting nervous. And yeah, there's a political element for Biden (and European governments facing elections) but the outcome of those elections is very significant for Ukraine, even if it's impolite to say it out loud…
There remains no Kremlin talking point too idiotic for Elon's bud David Sacks to amplify
Some info on the Liutyi attack drone, apparently used in many of the refinery strikes https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/23/meet-liutyi-ukraines-homegrown-drone-behind-strikes-on-russian-oil-refineries/?swcfpc=1
Somewhat surprised that most of Ukraine's long range drones seem to carry their landing gear all the way to the target, seems like a relatively simple aerodynamic / range upgrade to drop them or launch from a dolly or something. But I guess if it's good enough, KISS wins
John TimaeusBest guess would be if you made a sled gear version, you'd need two versions. One for training, one for the one way trip downrange.
Given the speeds involved, it probably doesn't make much difference in range.
But again, just speculation.