Brad Mitchell
December 28, 2023 “There will be more #COVID transmission in the U.S. on #NewYearsEve than during 96.4% of the pandemic.
🎉🎉🎉” - Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA
Dec 29, 2023 at 6:44amWeb
Show threadBrad MitchellDec 29, 2023

- “Christmas infections will seed New Year’s Eve/Day infections, leading to a peak around the 10th.

Around New Year’s, interacting with 15-20 people means a 50% chance of a COVID exposure. In a restaurant or plane, the risk jumps to >98%.”

Show threadpat radioDec 29, 2023
@Brad Got a link? I searches on Hoeger’s name and didn’t come up with anything.
Show threadJon PhillipsDec 29, 2023
@patradio @Brad. I found a link. https://sse.tulane.edu/michael-hoerger-phd-mscr. I couldn't see from that where his analysis on COVID carries any weight whatsoever, but I may be missing something.
Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., M.S.C.R. | tulane

Dr. Hoerger is a clinical health psychologist and decision scientist who conducts research aimed at supporting quality of life in adults with cancer. Quality of life encompasses both physical functioning and mental health, including depression and anxiety. Dr. Hoerger aims to support quality of life by conducting research on healthcare decision making and service utilization, patient-provider communication, patient education and empowerment, and health disparities.

Show threadmathewDec 30, 2023

@jonphillips @patradio @Brad Here you go:

https://www.pmc19.com/data/index.php

Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative - COVID-19 Data Dashboard

Show threadJon PhillipsDec 30, 2023
@mathew @patradio @Brad. Thanks for this.
Show threadOskar im KellerDec 29, 2023

@patradio @Brad It's spelled Hoerger - in your post an R is missing from the name. Maybe that's why your search was not successful.

Also, the slide with the curves over several years has Hoerger's full title and email, maybe that helps in your search.
https://zeroes.ca/@Brad/111662394124678643

Brad Mitchell (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image - “Zooming out to the full pandemic, we are in the 8th U.S. COVID wave & 2nd biggest all-time. That assumes no major wastewater corrections. We've surpassed the 1st wave, winter of 2020-21, Delta, & 2023 summer wave. Claims that “COVID is over” are harmful misinformation.”

zeroes.ca
Show threadmoved to @[email protected]Dec 29, 2023
@Brad @awpeet how do we learn this stuff for canada? what is even being tracked?
Show threadA-DubDec 29, 2023
@amanjeev i follow tara moriarty (@moriartylab) and bill comeau (@[email protected]) for local risk estimates.
Show threadA-DubDec 29, 2023
@amanjeev oops, sorry, i meant @billius27
Show threadSir David NielsenDec 29, 2023
@Brad @cstross makes me really joyful about having to go on multiple planes on the 5th.
Show threadroque (ロク)Dec 30, 2023
@DavidNielsen @Brad @cstross Multiple planes are better than one long plane trip, because you can give yourself mask breaks outside/in airport spaces that have high ceilings. I’m wondering how I’m going to get through Tokyo->DC in the spring. I might have to do a layover in LAX *shudder* just to give my face a break.
Show threadSir David NielsenDec 30, 2023

@roque @Brad @cstross I am going through the Frankfurt and São Paulo airports, two massive international airports, plus that 11 hours flight between them, right after the new year COVID starts blooming.

I predict heavy masking on my part and none on anyone else.

Show threadroque (ロク)Dec 30, 2023
@DavidNielsen @Brad @cstross May the odds be ever in your favor.
Show threadPauxlll KruczynskiDec 31, 2023
@Brad are there oher sources for this info, tho, that may be more convincing to skeptics?
Show threadBrad MitchellDec 29, 2023

- “Zooming out to the full pandemic, we are in the 8th U.S. COVID wave & 2nd biggest all-time.

That assumes no major wastewater corrections.

We've surpassed the 1st wave, winter of 2020-21, Delta, & 2023 summer wave. Claims that “COVID is over” are harmful misinformation.”

Show threadCatherine is not complacentDec 29, 2023
@Brad what concerns me is that spread in rural areas without public sewers is not being tracked at all. So while this graph is cause for alarm I’m certain that it’s actually much worse .
Show threadNihl L'AmasDec 29, 2023
@Brad Ookie mouth at midnight!
Show threadMichelleRN, Former CHPN, Ret.Dec 29, 2023
@Brad
I have been following the information since February 2020. Worked in the hospital the first wave and was horrified by what I saw. When vaccines were released, I had some hope we would get on top of this.
I have abandoned hope at this point, but continue to educate and advocate for all COVID mitigation measures.
People prefer to believe a comfortable lie, rather than an uncomfortable truth.
It didn't have to be this way. Thank you for continuing to speak the truth.
Show threadTofu MusubiDec 29, 2023
@Brad Found the source of these graphs: https://pmc19.com/data/
Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative - COVID-19 Data Dashboard

Show threadMerelyAHutDec 29, 2023
@Brad I can confirm this. I have my first case of Covid, as does my husband. (We are both fully vaccinated & boosted.) Our adult daughter has her 2nd round, as does one of my sisters, one niece & her spouse. A good friend & her husband are also sick for the first time. Other family waiting to test positive after a Christmas Day gathering.
Show threadSebastian Gallehr ☮️ ⁂Jan 2, 2024
@Brad
And what is about the lethality of #COVID? Has it declined with the recent variants, so that it has become much less dangerous?
And what is with increasing mental depreciation and loneliness because of COVID measures like social distancing?
Anyway Mike. Instead of yawning about increasing KPI like transmission factors, what is about using your PhD and MBA to strengthen the public health system as the only rational and life friendly anti COVID measure?
@xrgermany