Here's this week's #COVID19 data for New York City, the United States and the world.
In New York, hospitalizations are up a bit.
Nationwide hospitalizations continue to fall, and are well below the 2018-2019 flu peak.
Worldwide deaths may be plateauing.
Cause for optimism, but #CovidIsNotOver! It's important to:
* Keep wearing masks in medical settings and confined spaces
* Keep current with vaccinations
* Stay home if sick
* Be prepared to resume precautions if hospitalizations rise
Here are this week's #COVID19 indicators:
New York deaths average 0 per day. With 5 days with 1 death per day and 2 days with 0 deaths (May 21 and 22), I don't understand how that averages to 0, but it's the best so far this year!
New York hospitalizations are possibly at a plateau. Nationwide hospitalizations are well below the peak of flu hospitalizations in 2018-2019.
New York wastewater is low, last measured on April 11.
Worldwide deaths are also at their lowest since the beginning!
I haven't updated the NYC #COVID19 indicators for a couple of months, since they've been at a fairly low plateau!
First I wanted to focus on RESP-NET, since it's seasonal and I probably won't be referencing it regularly, at least until we get another wave.
It shows that the COVID-19 hospitalization rate has continued to decline, but at a much slower rate than the flu hospitalization rate did in any of the years in the study. It's now at about 1.0. #CovidIsNotOver
The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza-associated hospitalizations among children and adults.
Next up: #COVID19 wastewater data. It turns out that the dataset I was using hasn't been updated since May 1. But there's a SUNY professor who's been getting wastewater data from the NYC DEP.
That data is about a week old, but it's separated by sewage treatment plant. Levels are increasing at some treatment plants, but decreasing at others, including Bowery Bay, the plant that receives wastewater from western Queens. #CovidIsNotOver
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/SARS-CoV-2-concentrations-measured-in-NYC-Wastewat/f7dc-2q9f
https://mbcolli.shinyapps.io/SARS2EWSP/_w_e1a64648/
Results of sampling to determine the SARS-CoV-2 N gene levels in NYC DEP Wastewater Resource Recovery Facility (WRRF) influent, disaggregated by the WRRF where the sample was collected, date sample was collected, and date sample was tested RT-qPCR was changed to digital PCR in April of 2023, resulting values are about 10-20 times higher than those of RT-qPCR Data may be used to track trends in SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in NYC WRRF influent. Dataset does not include COVID-19 case rates.
So what about the charts I've been following for months? There are still too many #COVID19 deaths in New York City, but they do seem to be gradually decreasing; 11 deaths were reported for the first 17 days of July.
Hospitalizations were on a plateau for May, then declined in late June, but seem to have risen again in July. I'm wondering if that could be the heat and wildfire smoke - I've been seeing a lot more closed doors in shops and restaurants, and people eating inside.
Damn, I messed up the threading! Sorry about that:
Attached: 1 image Case counts are my least favorite #COVID19 indicator, since so few of us are testing regularly. But the recent rise in positive cases here in New York City does concern me a bit, and suggests that we should be on the lookout for resulting increases in hospitalizations and deaths. #CovidIsNotOver
#CovidIsNotOver and according to the CDC, US hospitalizations are back up to 2.4 per 100,000 residents. It's 3.3 in New York City.
We still eat outdoors and #WearAMask in confined spaces, doctors' offices and transit. If the rate rises above the peak combined flu/RSV rate of 6.2 in March 2019, we're cancelling karaoke, masking everywhere and working from home every day.
Also, the NYC hospitalization total is literally off the chart. Did the Dept. of Health really not expect another wave?
It's been a while since I looked at a nationwide #COVID19 map! Some of the counties are not looking good, especially Albany County here in New York, Brazos County, Texas (home of Texas A&M) and Palm Beach County, Florida. #CovidIsNotOver
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#maps_new-admissions-rate-county
I don't really understand this week's NYC #COVID19 summary. The 7-day average is 48 hospitalizations citywide, but that seems to be based on data that they acknowledge are incomplete. The 7-day average ending August 23 is 66.
Similarly, the 7-day average citywide death rate ending August 28 is 1, but if you go back a few days it's 2.
Since I'm settling on hospitalizations per lakh population as a comparable rate, I'm now looking at the third chart in this toot: as of August 19 it was 4.36.
Skipping NYC's #COVID19 summary this week and going directly to data that is now more than a week old, so more reliable: the citywide hospitalization rate is still 4.62 per lakh residents per day, the death rate is 3 people per day, the wastewater samples are high and increasing.
The statewide hospitalization rate was 5.95, but current estimates have it over 7. Still nowhere near where we were in January (22.3) or January 2022 (62.5), but cause for concern.
The United States nationwide #COVID19 hospitalization rate is trending upward, but again, 3.1 per lakh residents per day as of August 19, nowhere near as bad as the peak of the 2018-2019 flu season.
Worldwide deaths are trending upward, after hitting a low of 368 per day on August 7. Still "only" 597 as of August 21.
#CovidIsNotOver but I'm hoping as the weather cools off in the US, people will eat outdoors more and the wave will taper off. That did happen in September-October 2021 and 2022!
Since the #COVID19 case, hospitalization, death and wastewater detection rates are going up in NYC, be careful to #WearAMask on trains and even platforms - and maybe avoid very crowded trains where most people are unmasked!
Today I recorded one of the highest readings I've ever seen on my PTH-8: 3208ppm CO2, in an R46 car on a crowded downtown A train.
I also recorded over 2000ppm CO2 on the south end of the uptown platform at 42nd and Eighth, and in the Times Square tunnel.
Thinking about when it's appropriate to use preliminary #covid19 data.
Hospitalization rates are a lagging indicator and are rarely revised down, so when you're climbing a wave and trying to figure out whether it's time to reinstate precautions, you should probably go by the highest rate in recent weeks.
At the end of the wave, when you're trying to figure out when to relax precautions, you should probably also go by the highest rate. #CovidIsNotOver
This evening just before 6pm, the CO2 concentration at the checkout at my local supermarket was 979ppm.
Not the worst I've seen, but this is why I still wear my KN95 in the supermarket, even when #COVID19 hospitalization rates are low and I may not #WearAMask in my sparsely populated office, and even sometimes sing karaoke in public.
#CovidIsNotOver and I want my neighbors to feel safe going to the supermarket!
We will most likely have a winter #COVID19 wave in New York City, but is the late summer wave cresting? The hospitalization rates from two weeks ago have risen, but it has not gone above 6, and the wastewater rate seems to be declining.
#CovidIsNotOver, so #WearAMask in confined spaces, #GetBoosted and test regularly!
The NYC #covid data posted as of September 28 suggests that we had a mini-peak in early September and another in late September. Early September is towards the end of a heat wave, and late September is when we had a lot of rain.
It seems to me that there's a clear pattern of hospitalizations going up when people spend more time inside, which is why I'm frustrated that the City is discouraging outdoor dining during cold months!
The New York State, United States and worldwide hospitalization data also point to a #covid mini-peak in early September. Let's hope it goes down for the rest of the fall!
Okay, here's something to be concerned about for NYC: with updated data, the citywide #COVID hospitalization rate for New York is now 6.44 for the week ending September 23, and 6.05 for the week ending September 30. 6.44 is higher than the 2019 peak of 6.2 for flu+RSV.
The rate appears to be going down the past two weeks, but is that just an artifact of incomplete data?
In any case, I'm going to move my karaoke meetup to Zoom and #WearAMask in more places!
The updated NYC #COVID hospitalization rate for September 30 is 6.26. Again, that's higher than the 2019 peak of 6.2 for flu+RSV.
#COVID19 hospitalizations seems to have plateaued and may be going down, but it may take a couple of weeks to see.
I moved the New York Tech Karaoke Meetup online last night. Will we be able to sing in person later in the month?
NYC #COVID wastewater may be on a slight rise, but hospitalizations seem to be going down! The current 7-day average will probably be revised up, but 1.6 hospitalizations per 100,000 is the lowest rate I've seen since July. The more reliable rate from October 7 is 5.39, below the max rate of 5.5 for flu in 2019.
#CovidIsNotOver and #COVIDisAirborne but if #covid19 hospitalizations stay below 6 per lakh next year, I'll schedule an in-person New York Tech Karaoke Meetup for the following week!
NYC #Covid hospitalizations appear to be stabilizing below 6 per lakh, so I will continue cautiously participating in in-person karaoke meetups.
#CovidIsNotOver and the weather is nice, so I will keep eating outdoors as much as possible, and #WearAMask in doctors' offices, pharmacies, elevators, trains and grocery stores!
This week, NYC #COVID hospitalizations and wastewater both appear to be stable or declining, and hospitalizations have remained under 6 per lakh!
I feel better about attending two in-person karaoke events and an in-person support group this past week, but #COVIDIsNotOver, so I'm not going to push it!
I still eat outdoors as much as possible and #WearAMask in doctors' offices, pharmacies, elevators and grocery stores!
NYC #COVID hospitalizations remain below 5 per lakh over the past month, and wastewater samples at Bowery Bay are below 75% and dropping!
With rates so low, I felt relatively safe eating indoors at a restaurant last night, and I'm planning to attend a support group and karaoke.
But #COVIDIsNotOver and we're still expecting a winter surge, so I'll continue to #WearAMask in doctors' offices, pharmacies, elevators, trains and grocery stores and be prepared to take further precautions! #covid19
NYC #covid hospitalizations appear to be leveling off below 4 per lakh, and wastewater samples continue to drop. I've been singing karaoke!
But #CovidIsNotOver and I've heard about several people getting sick. If this is like previous years we'll get an increase after Thanksgiving.
I still #WearAMask in doctors' offices, pharmacies, elevators, trains and grocery stores, and eat outdoors whenever possible. If hospitalizations rise again I'm prepared to take further precautions!
Yeah, I get it, it's a holiday week, but New York City is paying tons of employees overtime, and I think it's worth paying the people who update the #COVID19 stats website - because #CovidIsNotOver !
The NYC #Covid19 data is out after a two-week gap. The good news is that hospitalizations are low - lower than they've been since July!
But #CovidIsNotOver and millions people have been traveling all over the world the past few weeks, going to conferences and visiting relatives, and spending time in airplanes, trains, restaurants and terminals on the way.
I'm expecting a winter wave to start soon, but hospitalizations are a trailing indicator. I'll look at leading indicators in the next post!
Just knowing that #CovidIsNotOver and millions of people have been visiting family and traveling is enough for me to be more cautious this week.
I don't trust leading indicators as much as hospitalizations, but they can indicate that a new wave may be starting.
NYC #covid19 case counts and wastewater samples indicate a recent rise in observations of the virus, so I scheduled a booster for my mom and will get mine soon.
And I #WearAMask in doctors' offices, pharmacies, trains and elevators!
And just like that, #covid hospitalizations have risen in NYC after Thanksgiving travel and visits. And this is still preliminary data - will the final numbers be higher? Is this just the beginning of the winter #COVID19 wave?
Glad my spouse, my mom and I all got boosted! I'm going to avoid in-person karaoke until I see these hospitalizations go down, and continue to #WearAMask in doctors' offices, pharmacies, supermarkets, and in confined spaces like trains and elevators!
Even before Thanksgiving, nationwide hospitalizations for #COVID were more than half what they were last year; flu is low for the season, but #RSV is also half what it was last year, so they're all sending 7.4 people per lakh to the hospital. The NY state and worldwide #COVID19 pictures are similar.
The good news is that you can protect yourself from all three: #WearAMask in crowded spaces and doctors' offices, try to eat in well-ventilated spaces, and stay home if you're not feeling well!
This week's #covid hospitalizations for NYC are only revised up slightly, which suggests that this winter's #covid19 wave might be lower than last year's, and hopefully not last as long!
Wastewater was decreasing as of December 3, but #CovidIsNotOver so I'm expecting we'll see it rise again over the next few weeks...
New York, the winter #COVID wave is upon us! In the week ending December 16, 6.37 people were hospitalized with #COVID19 per lakh residents.
The current hospitalization rate is slightly lower, but it's incomplete, so it may be revised higher. Wastewater is trending up as well on December 12!
I'm currently home with a sore throat, aches and a negative rapid test. Even when I don't feel sick I #WearAMask in trains, elevators and doctors' offices. #CovidIsNotOver and the flu and RSV kill too!
@jtwcornell91 Well, Monroe County DOES share hospitalization data with the CDC - and you can find it by following the link on their page!
But the CDC bureaucrats decided to foreground vaccination data, so you have to poke around to get new hospital admissions (NOT total hospitalizations). And then futz with your mouse until you find the unlabeled county and see the uncopyable info.
Also, the CDC has decided that below 10 per lakh is "Low"? 🙄
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#maps_new-admissions-rate-county
Statewide #COVID hospitalizations in New York dropped below 6 per lakh in the fall wave on November 2.
Across the US, as of October 1 we are now officially in the 2023-2024 respiratory disease season, so we have wrapped on the RESP-NET chart. And it's reassuring to see that #COVID19 and flu hospitalizations are less than half what they were this time last year!
#COVIDIsNotOver and weekly deaths reported to the WHO peaked at 2,210 in September; now there are around 500 people a week dying.
Angus Andrea Grieve-Smith
JTW