Here's this week's #COVID19 data for New York City, the United States and the world.
In New York, hospitalizations are up a bit.
Nationwide hospitalizations continue to fall, and are well below the 2018-2019 flu peak.
Worldwide deaths may be plateauing.
Cause for optimism, but #CovidIsNotOver! It's important to:
* Keep wearing masks in medical settings and confined spaces
* Keep current with vaccinations
* Stay home if sick
* Be prepared to resume precautions if hospitalizations rise
Here are this week's #COVID19 indicators:
New York deaths average 0 per day. With 5 days with 1 death per day and 2 days with 0 deaths (May 21 and 22), I don't understand how that averages to 0, but it's the best so far this year!
New York hospitalizations are possibly at a plateau. Nationwide hospitalizations are well below the peak of flu hospitalizations in 2018-2019.
New York wastewater is low, last measured on April 11.
Worldwide deaths are also at their lowest since the beginning!
I haven't updated the NYC #COVID19 indicators for a couple of months, since they've been at a fairly low plateau!
First I wanted to focus on RESP-NET, since it's seasonal and I probably won't be referencing it regularly, at least until we get another wave.
It shows that the COVID-19 hospitalization rate has continued to decline, but at a much slower rate than the flu hospitalization rate did in any of the years in the study. It's now at about 1.0. #CovidIsNotOver
The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza-associated hospitalizations among children and adults.
Next up: #COVID19 wastewater data. It turns out that the dataset I was using hasn't been updated since May 1. But there's a SUNY professor who's been getting wastewater data from the NYC DEP.
That data is about a week old, but it's separated by sewage treatment plant. Levels are increasing at some treatment plants, but decreasing at others, including Bowery Bay, the plant that receives wastewater from western Queens. #CovidIsNotOver
https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Health/SARS-CoV-2-concentrations-measured-in-NYC-Wastewat/f7dc-2q9f
https://mbcolli.shinyapps.io/SARS2EWSP/_w_e1a64648/
Results of sampling to determine the SARS-CoV-2 N gene levels in NYC DEP Wastewater Resource Recovery Facility (WRRF) influent, disaggregated by the WRRF where the sample was collected, date sample was collected, and date sample was tested RT-qPCR was changed to digital PCR in April of 2023, resulting values are about 10-20 times higher than those of RT-qPCR Data may be used to track trends in SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in NYC WRRF influent. Dataset does not include COVID-19 case rates.
So what about the charts I've been following for months? There are still too many #COVID19 deaths in New York City, but they do seem to be gradually decreasing; 11 deaths were reported for the first 17 days of July.
Hospitalizations were on a plateau for May, then declined in late June, but seem to have risen again in July. I'm wondering if that could be the heat and wildfire smoke - I've been seeing a lot more closed doors in shops and restaurants, and people eating inside.
Damn, I messed up the threading! Sorry about that:
Attached: 1 image Case counts are my least favorite #COVID19 indicator, since so few of us are testing regularly. But the recent rise in positive cases here in New York City does concern me a bit, and suggests that we should be on the lookout for resulting increases in hospitalizations and deaths. #CovidIsNotOver
#CovidIsNotOver and according to the CDC, US hospitalizations are back up to 2.4 per 100,000 residents. It's 3.3 in New York City.
We still eat outdoors and #WearAMask in confined spaces, doctors' offices and transit. If the rate rises above the peak combined flu/RSV rate of 6.2 in March 2019, we're cancelling karaoke, masking everywhere and working from home every day.
Also, the NYC hospitalization total is literally off the chart. Did the Dept. of Health really not expect another wave?
It's been a while since I looked at a nationwide #COVID19 map! Some of the counties are not looking good, especially Albany County here in New York, Brazos County, Texas (home of Texas A&M) and Palm Beach County, Florida. #CovidIsNotOver
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#maps_new-admissions-rate-county
I don't really understand this week's NYC #COVID19 summary. The 7-day average is 48 hospitalizations citywide, but that seems to be based on data that they acknowledge are incomplete. The 7-day average ending August 23 is 66.
Similarly, the 7-day average citywide death rate ending August 28 is 1, but if you go back a few days it's 2.
Since I'm settling on hospitalizations per lakh population as a comparable rate, I'm now looking at the third chart in this toot: as of August 19 it was 4.36.
Skipping NYC's #COVID19 summary this week and going directly to data that is now more than a week old, so more reliable: the citywide hospitalization rate is still 4.62 per lakh residents per day, the death rate is 3 people per day, the wastewater samples are high and increasing.
The statewide hospitalization rate was 5.95, but current estimates have it over 7. Still nowhere near where we were in January (22.3) or January 2022 (62.5), but cause for concern.
The United States nationwide #COVID19 hospitalization rate is trending upward, but again, 3.1 per lakh residents per day as of August 19, nowhere near as bad as the peak of the 2018-2019 flu season.
Worldwide deaths are trending upward, after hitting a low of 368 per day on August 7. Still "only" 597 as of August 21.
#CovidIsNotOver but I'm hoping as the weather cools off in the US, people will eat outdoors more and the wave will taper off. That did happen in September-October 2021 and 2022!
Since the #COVID19 case, hospitalization, death and wastewater detection rates are going up in NYC, be careful to #WearAMask on trains and even platforms - and maybe avoid very crowded trains where most people are unmasked!
Today I recorded one of the highest readings I've ever seen on my PTH-8: 3208ppm CO2, in an R46 car on a crowded downtown A train.
I also recorded over 2000ppm CO2 on the south end of the uptown platform at 42nd and Eighth, and in the Times Square tunnel.
Thinking about when it's appropriate to use preliminary #covid19 data.
Hospitalization rates are a lagging indicator and are rarely revised down, so when you're climbing a wave and trying to figure out whether it's time to reinstate precautions, you should probably go by the highest rate in recent weeks.
At the end of the wave, when you're trying to figure out when to relax precautions, you should probably also go by the highest rate. #CovidIsNotOver
This evening just before 6pm, the CO2 concentration at the checkout at my local supermarket was 979ppm.
Not the worst I've seen, but this is why I still wear my KN95 in the supermarket, even when #COVID19 hospitalization rates are low and I may not #WearAMask in my sparsely populated office, and even sometimes sing karaoke in public.
#CovidIsNotOver and I want my neighbors to feel safe going to the supermarket!
We will most likely have a winter #COVID19 wave in New York City, but is the late summer wave cresting? The hospitalization rates from two weeks ago have risen, but it has not gone above 6, and the wastewater rate seems to be declining.
#CovidIsNotOver, so #WearAMask in confined spaces, #GetBoosted and test regularly!
The NYC #covid data posted as of September 28 suggests that we had a mini-peak in early September and another in late September. Early September is towards the end of a heat wave, and late September is when we had a lot of rain.
It seems to me that there's a clear pattern of hospitalizations going up when people spend more time inside, which is why I'm frustrated that the City is discouraging outdoor dining during cold months!
The New York State, United States and worldwide hospitalization data also point to a #covid mini-peak in early September. Let's hope it goes down for the rest of the fall!
Okay, here's something to be concerned about for NYC: with updated data, the citywide #COVID hospitalization rate for New York is now 6.44 for the week ending September 23, and 6.05 for the week ending September 30. 6.44 is higher than the 2019 peak of 6.2 for flu+RSV.
The rate appears to be going down the past two weeks, but is that just an artifact of incomplete data?
In any case, I'm going to move my karaoke meetup to Zoom and #WearAMask in more places!
The updated NYC #COVID hospitalization rate for September 30 is 6.26. Again, that's higher than the 2019 peak of 6.2 for flu+RSV.
#COVID19 hospitalizations seems to have plateaued and may be going down, but it may take a couple of weeks to see.
I moved the New York Tech Karaoke Meetup online last night. Will we be able to sing in person later in the month?
NYC #COVID wastewater may be on a slight rise, but hospitalizations seem to be going down! The current 7-day average will probably be revised up, but 1.6 hospitalizations per 100,000 is the lowest rate I've seen since July. The more reliable rate from October 7 is 5.39, below the max rate of 5.5 for flu in 2019.
#CovidIsNotOver and #COVIDisAirborne but if #covid19 hospitalizations stay below 6 per lakh next year, I'll schedule an in-person New York Tech Karaoke Meetup for the following week!
NYC #Covid hospitalizations appear to be stabilizing below 6 per lakh, so I will continue cautiously participating in in-person karaoke meetups.
#CovidIsNotOver and the weather is nice, so I will keep eating outdoors as much as possible, and #WearAMask in doctors' offices, pharmacies, elevators, trains and grocery stores!
This week, NYC #COVID hospitalizations and wastewater both appear to be stable or declining, and hospitalizations have remained under 6 per lakh!
I feel better about attending two in-person karaoke events and an in-person support group this past week, but #COVIDIsNotOver, so I'm not going to push it!
I still eat outdoors as much as possible and #WearAMask in doctors' offices, pharmacies, elevators and grocery stores!
@tobi82 Europeans wearing shorts? Now you know the world has been turned upside-down. 😉
Yesterday it was the first day with a high of 22 degrees C, so it was the first day I wore long pants in over a month!
Angus Andrea Grieve-Smith
conscientious objector 🇨🇭🪂🤓🕊️🖖