In case you need a succinct illustration of what an absolute clown Seymour Hersh is these days, he claims "some in the American intelligence community" worry Russia might respond to drone attacks on Moscow by attacking Kyiv 🥴

Prigozhin shows up at Putin's Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg. Not sure "recently conducted a failed coup attempt in home country" is a selling point for a mercenary organization, by YMMV

https://www.ft.com/content/0a69c5e8-803d-4bd6-b5f8-8f36073372fc

Wagner boss Prigozhin appears on sidelines of Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

Financial Times
From @osinttechnical on the other site, APKWS has finally made an appearance, after being listed in aid packages since last year. Not clear what's painting the target, being able to do it with drones would seem like an extremely useful capability
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1684796259977109505
OSINTtechnical on Twitter

“HMMWV-based LAND-LGR4 APKWS MRL in Ukrainian service, firing laser-guided Hydra 70mm APKWS rockets at a Russian position in a treeline.”

Twitter
Another candidate for recent #Ukraine long-range strikes: Re-purposed S-200 SAMs. The thing in this video certainly looks S-200ish, though hitting specific surface targets would imply significant GNC upgrades https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1684983833823780864
Kevin Rothrock on Twitter

“Dashcam captures an apparent Ukrainian missile (reportedly an S-200) hitting a building today in downtown Taganrog. Russia’s Investigative Committee is treating the incident as a terrorist attack. Other rocket attacks were reported in Kaluga, Rostov, and Crimea.”

Twitter
S-200 is a chonky SAM with a reported 300 km range against air targets. They also have a history of going astray and hitting distant things on the ground https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_(missile)
S-200 (missile) - Wikipedia

Long piece from @mgerrydoyle on the terrible scale of the landmine problem in #ukraine
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/LANDMINES/myvmgnqbavr/index.html
Russian land mines pose a persistent and deadly threat in Ukraine

As Ukraine fights back, mines left by Russian forces pose a problem for Kyiv's military — and civilians in liberated territory

Reuters

OK, it was only a matter of time before North Korean munitions showed up in #Ukraine, but I kinda expected the Russians to be firing them.

Key quotes "Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings … Ukrainian soldiers said the rockets had been “seized” from a ship by a “friendly” country" while a Ukrainian official implied they might be captured from Russians

(ft link probably unpaywalled if you click from twitter)

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1685126870159802373

Christopher Miller on Twitter

“Ukrainian troops have come into possession of North Korea-made rockets they’re using with Grad MLRS along the frontline. Hat tip to @CalibreObscura @UAWeapons @RALee85 for help with ID. https://t.co/8nrJd2uaWh”

Twitter
Unusually close look at some canard drones likely used in strikes by #Ukraine on Russia. Looks aerodynamically slick (aside from the unfaired motor), no surprise it can reach Moscow IMO. Spindly "landing gear" only designed for takeoff? No obvious sign of optical sensors = GNSS + IMU only?
https://twitter.com/serhiyprytula/status/1685596517850021888
Serhiy Prytula on Twitter

“Ми гадки не маємо що ж може літати у Москву! Та запевняємо, що ви, хто донатив на помсту, тут гарантовано не причетні 😉. Далі буде, це тільки пристрілка 😉. А підтримати Сили Оборони ви завжди можете за цим посиланням: https://t.co/NmdHTlU8b3 Працюємо, панове! І……”

Twitter

CNN also recently got a close look at one of #Ukraine's USVs. Operators claim that Russian's ships defenses have great difficulty countering them seems a bit optimistic though. There have been a lot more attacks than confirmed successful hits

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/30/europe/ukraine-drones-black-sea-intl/index.html

Multiple drones hit Moscow again, reportedly causing damage to building housing several Russian federal ministries https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1686180379575595009
Rob Lee on Twitter

“There was another UAV attack on Moscow City tonight. One UAV reportedly hit the same building that was struck on July 29. https://t.co/mVbitmwbNY https://t.co/nEoWadUpSW”

Twitter
Thread from Christiaan Triebert includes video of damage purportedly from inside the Ministry of Digital Development. Unconfirmed, but pretty good targeting if true
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1686174248694431744
Christiaan Triebert on Twitter

“Just moments ago, reports of yet another drone attack in Moscow (early hours of August 1), making it the fourth attack in the span of just one week. Threading details as they emerge below:”

Twitter

Kyiv Independent has a wild story about the Ukrainian POWs sent to Hungary. "While the POWs allegedly do have Hungarian-sounding surnames, only one speaks Hungarian and is a Hungarian citizen … it was the thinly-veiled image of saving Hungarians that mattered: who these people were in reality did not"

#Ukraine

https://kyivindependent.com/exclusive-new-insights-point-to-hungarys-collaboration-with-moscow-on-transfer-of-ukrainian-pows/

Exclusive: New insights point to Hungary’s collaboration with Moscow on transfer of Ukrainian POWs

In early June, a bizarre and mysterious joint operation was carried out between two of Ukraine’s neighbors, one to the east and one to the west. Eleven Ukrainian soldiers, after having been held in Russian captivity for an unknown amount of time, were moved from Russia to Hungary. Although

The Kyiv Independent
Held under unclear circumstances, reportedly pressured:
"The narrative of this manipulation, as confirmed by the diplomatic sources, was to convince the POWs that they would immediately be returned to the front line or tried as deserters if they returned to Ukraine, with one source claiming that they were even pressured to take Hungarian citizenship."
This is bizarre, a whole bunch of people who attempted arson attacks on Russian draft offices claim to have been convinced to do it by phone scammers (has been reported for a while, but the sheer number in this post is striking) https://notes.citeam.org/mobi-jul-31-aug-1
Mobilization in Russia for July 31-Aug. 1, 2023 CIT Volunteer Summary

Member of the State Council of Russia\'s constituent Republic of Tatarstan Eduard Sharafiev has introduced a federal bill to the Council...

Teletype
I mean, people fall for all kinds of phone scams but "throw a molotov at a government building" seems like a pretty high bar. Attempt to get a lighter sentence than saying it's anti-war? Seems unlikely to work, and likely to backfire if there's no evidence of the "scammer"
BBC Russian with a long piece on the decline of the Russian diplomatic corps into shouty propagandist "robots with papers" (google translate seems to do passably well)
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cxrxlwr2q4ro
Как российский МИД потерял влияние на Путина и не остановил войну - BBC News Русская служба

Дипломатии не удалось остановить российское вторжение в Украину и предотвратить обвал в отношениях Запада и России. Дипломаты из МИД РФ потеряли авторитет внутри системы власти, пытаясь угодить Кремлю, и превратились в пропагандистов, не способных влиять на позицию Путина. Можно ли восстановить разрушенные войной связи России с западным миром?

BBC News Русская служба

Reports of a Russian project 775 Ropucha class landing ship listing heavily after USV attack on Novorossiysk https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1687353796622491650

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1687353883499106304

#Ukraine

Yaroslav Trofimov on Twitter

“One Russian Navy large landing ship of project 775 appears to have been damaged by Ukrainian drones in Novorossiysk — it has taken some water and is tilting to the side.”

Twitter
Notably two were damaged in Berdyansk in 2022, and Russia was reportedly using landing ships (though I haven't seen type named) to ease logistics bottlenecks related to the Kerch bridge damage
Anyway #Ukraine posted the video feed from one of the #USV, so I guess we're not playing the "we have no idea who did that" game today
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1687358900079587329
OSINTtechnical on Twitter

“Footage of the Ukrainian USV hitting the Russian Ropucha class LST.”

Twitter
TASS meanwhile parrots the Russian MOD claiming the USVs were defeated ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/18442471
ВСУ ночью попытались атаковать военно-морскую базу Новороссийск

ТАСС
RIA reports (google translate): "To the remark of journalists that, despite the statement of the Ministry of Defense, videos of the damaged ship being towed appeared on the network, Peskov replied that it was necessary to focus on the information of the Ministry of Defense.
"This concerns a special military operation, here questions should be addressed to the Ministry of Defense and guided by the information provided by the Ministry of Defense," he said." ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://ria.ru/20230804/korabl-1888167869.html
В Кремле переадресовали вопрос о повреждении корабля в Новороссийске

Пресс-секретарь президента РФ Дмитрий Песков, отвечая на вопрос о якобы повреждении корабля в Новороссийске, заявил, что в ситуации с атакой ВСУ на военные... РИА Новости, 04.08.2023

РИА Новости

Propaganda value of claiming no damage while you tow a heavily listing >2000 ton warship past a city of a quarter million seems questionable to me, but then again, I am no master strategist!

(Andrey appears to have it figured out)

Good example of what that earlier BBC piece on the Russian diplomatic corps described: Russian U.K. ambassador Andrey Kelin, responding to a question from Christiane Amanpour about the Prigozhin mutiny, claims that no one was killed

We saw multiple aircraft shot down and saw obituaries of their crews

https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1687523063850553358

Christiane Amanpour on Twitter

“I asked the Russian Ambassador to the UK why the leader of the failed armed uprising against his state is still free, when the Kremlin is so quick to jail political opponents and journalists for treason.”

Twitter
🌉 👀
Meanwhile in completely unsurprising news, the German extreme right AfD has been caught coordinating with and getting money from an apparent Russian intelligence agent https://theins.ru/en/politics/264014
Exclusive: Far-right German parliamentary aide tasked by Russia with stopping Leopard tanks to Ukraine

Leaked communications between Vladimir Sergienko, a naturalized German citizen, and “Alexei,” a suspected FSB operative, show the extent of Russia’s infiltration of the Alternative for Germany party. Their “active measures” included a plan to stop or slow delivery of German main battle tanks to Ukraine using frivolous litigation against the German government. It would only cost $93,000.

The Insider
So #Ukraine seems to have hit an empty, sanctioned Russian oil tanker near the Kerch bridge. Which TBH I'm not convinced is a great / cost benefit, either for use of the USV asset or likely follow-on effect
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66412842
Russia says tanker hit in Ukrainian attack near Crimea

The attack is the second in as many days involving sea drones, Ukrainian security sources tell the BBC.

Olenegorsky Gornyak, sitting in dry dock, with a substantial hole. Presumably nothing to do with the USVs which, as the Russian MOD assured us, were all defeated

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1689877197895462912

Mark Krutov on Twitter

“And now, ladies and gentlemen, meet the 'Olenegorsky Gornyak' hole. Two things stand out to me: 1) The Russian ship has been holed below the waterline. 2) The ship's interior also appears to have been significantly damaged by the explosion from the Ukrainian naval drone.”

Twitter

#Ukraine released a compilation of USV videos. Seems like hit rate against warships that notice them is pretty low, wonder if they're working on variants armed with conventional torpedoes or missiles

https://twitter.com/HelloMrBond/status/1690526475114496000

Michael Bond on Twitter

“Ukraine released a compilation of USV footage today. Here are the details🧵 4 of attack on the Priazovye 3 of attack on the Ivan Khurs 4 of attack on Vasily Bykov, Sergey Kotov & Sparta IV 1 unknown engagement Analyzed with @HamWa07 @exit266 https://t.co/5qaHKxOrEI”

Twitter
Russia Fires Warning Shots and Boards a Freighter in the Black Sea

Russia’s military made good on its threats to enforce its blockade of Ukraine, adding to the tensions in an increasingly active theater of war.

The New York Times
Today's CI Team siterep (https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-aug-11-14) suggests it happened in southern Black Sea, a bit outside Turkish territorial waters, rather far from Sukru Okan's destination of Izmail on the Danube delta
Sitrep for Aug. 11–14, 2023 (as of 8 a.m.)

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated the village of Urozhaine, located not far from the recently freed Staromaiorske in the South...

Teletype
Why would that be 🤔
Nominal Harpoon block 1 (yellow) and Neptune (red, take it with a grain of salt) ranges, per wikipedia. Area where Russia can intercept that is not in NATO waters or serious risk of getting Moskva'd is pretty limited. Of course, targeting them near shipping lanes would be dicey
Sukru Okan meanwhile made its way to Romanian side of the Danube delta at least
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:334865/mmsi:511100865/imo:8311560/vessel:SUKRU_OKAN
Ship SUKRU OKAN (General Cargo) Registered in Palau - Vessel details, Current position and Voyage information - IMO 8311560, MMSI 511100865, Call Sign T8A4116

Vessel SUKRU OKAN is a General Cargo, Registered in Palau. Discover the vessel's particulars, including capacity, machinery, photos and ownership. Get the details of the current Voyage of SUKRU OKAN including Position, Port Calls, Destination, ETA and Distance travelled - IMO 8311560, MMSI 511100865, Call Sign T8A4116

MarineTraffic.com
CNN obtained footage from #Ukraine SBU showing the Kerch bridge USV attack. Looks somewhat different from the one shown to CNN on July 30 and other recently released strike videos https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/15/europe/ukraine-crimea-bridge-drone-strike-video-intl/index.html

WaPo obtained detailed planning docs for Russia's #Shahed136 #Drone production from "an individual involved in the work … who opposes Putin’s invasion of Ukraine"
“This was the only thing I could do to at least stop and maybe create some obstacles to the implementation of this project,” the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of safety concerns. “It has gone too far.”

#GiftArticle https://wapo.st/3DXQHtQ

Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Iran’s help

Leaked documents show that, despite delays, Moscow is progressing toward its goal of mass producing drones that could be used against Ukraine.

Washington Post
Wait, what? "One Pentagon spokesman said that he was keeping Musk apprised of my inquiries about his role in Ukraine and would grant an interview with an official about the matter only with Musk’s permission" (Farrow on Musk and Starlink in Ukraine, among other things) https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/28/elon-musks-shadow-rule

Props to The Insider for including a couple part numbers in this article about Russia sanctions evasion: One is AD7450BRZ, an ADC that sells for $15 (single unit), the other is ADF4351BCPZ-RL7 which is $20 frequency synthesizer… illustrates the extreme difficulty of actually cutting them off. Setting up a shell company in a third country to order modest quantities seems like a low bar for a nation state

https://theins.ru/en/politics/264419

Short circuit. How Europe turns a blind eye to Russia smuggling dual-use microchips

In spite of sanctions, microchips from U.S. companies Texas Instruments and Analog Devices continue to be imported into Russia, where they have military applications. These violations are hiding in plain sight, in registered customs data.

The Insider
Remarkably though, the imports are apparently still reported in Russian customs data
Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say

American strategists say Ukraine’s troops are too spread out and need to concentrate along the counteroffensive’s main front in the south.

The New York Times
Yeah, if successful, a major breakthrough would be preferable even with heavy losses, but seems far from guaranteed, and the people on the ground probably have a better handle on the odds. As the article notes "American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity"
@reedmideke Have any American proxy wars in the last forty years included trench warfare? The last big war that wasn't dominated by air power must have been before WWII.
@wikkit I sure can't think of any. Certainly not at the kind of scale and intensity as Ukraine. Iran-Iraq war might be kind of analogous, but not a US proxy war, even if we did arms to both sides a bit