#Prigozhin / #Wagner saga continues to be bizarre
Lukashenko says Prigozhin is in St Petersburg
Peskov, asked about it, absurdly says “We do not have the desire nor the capability to” monitor the movements of a guy who … *checks notes* … recently sent his private army to attack the capital and shot down multiple aircraft
Seen a lot of talk about what allowing Azovstal commanders to leave says about Erdoğan's relations with Russia, but not much about implications for future exchanges. Hundreds are still held, some facing sham trials
On July 8, Azovstal commanders returned to Ukraine from Turkey. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Turkey and Ukraine of breaking the terms of the agreement that freed the commanders from Russian captivity.
Welp, I guess this take of mine (https://twitter.com/reedmideke/status/1672504330383945728) aged poorly "Not only was Yevgeny Prigozhin not clapped in irons and hauled off to the police station for his rebellion.
It's now emerged that five days later he was in the Kremlin, together with his commanders, sitting round the table and chatting with President Putin."
#Opsec tip of the day brought to you by recently assassinated Russian submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitsky who reportedly "had profile on Strava, where he posted his runs and bike rides" and was shot while out jogging
https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1678513332574191617
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-deputy-chief-krasnodar-shot-dead-/32497651.html#0_8_10089_8766_2710_249232399
Meanwhile, a reminder that coups in nuclear weapons states aren't all fun and games 😬
"as rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents"
As rebellious Wagner forces drove north toward Moscow on June 24, a contingent of military vehicles diverted east on a highway in the direction of a fortified Russian army base that holds nuclear weapons, according to videos posted online and interviews with local residents.
HUR head Budanov "said Wagner fighters went far further… and that their intention was to acquire small Soviet-era nuclear devices in order to "raise the stakes" in their mutiny"
(Budanov says some wild stuff on occasion, OTOH reuters got level of corroboration from other sources)
Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius and to threaten the Black Sea grain deal. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that
Also in that ISW report "Dmitry Rogozin is promoting a proposal to launch high-explosive aerial bombs from the Vostochny and Plesetsk cosmodromes… Rogozin was reportedly interested in retrofitting the FAB-500 bombs to survive reentry into the atmosphere"
Hard to see that making much sense, but on brand for Rogozin
Man who shot and injured a draft officer faces the same prison time as one who made a 50 euro donation for the Ukrainian military 🤨
“Russian major general Ivan Popov (58th combined arms Air Defense Army) recorded a message saying that he was relieved from duty from his position. 🔊Please listen below to the audio; I've added subtitles. He says he is removed for telling the truth to the high command. He…”
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are being detained across Russia and the Ukrainian territories it occupies, in centers ranging from brand-new wings in Russian prisons to clammy basements. Most have no status under Russian law. An Associated Press investigation also found that Russia is making plans to hold potentially thousands more. A Russian government document obtained by the AP dating to January outlined plans to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree in May that would make it easier for Russia to deport Ukrainians who resist Russian occupation deep into Russia indefinitely, which has already happened in multiple cases documented by the AP.
Putin's incoherent response to Wagner revolt continues:
[Putin] said that "Wagner does not exist" when asked whether the group would be preserved as a fighting unit. "There is no law on private military organisations. It just doesn't exist."
This "difficult issue" of how to legalise Wagner fighters should be discussed in parliament https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66194549
👀 "Preliminarily something hit the Crimean bridge.
According to official Russian sources, traffic on the bridge has been halted."
(very unconfirmed, but auto_glam isn't a fabulist)
TASS confirms closed due to an unspecified "emergency"
Crimea occupation head Sergey Aksyonov: "Traffic was stopped on the Krymsky Bridge: an emergency occurred in the area of the 145th support from the Krasnodar Territory. Law enforcement agencies and all responsible services are working. I spoke with the Minister of Transport … measures are being taken to restore the situation. We keep in touch with colleagues from Krasnodar Territory"
https://tass.ru/proisshestviya/18287603
Pictures of the damage have emerged on the BAZA telegram channel. Not obvious what happened, but seems like the road portion will be significantly affected for some time
BBC reports "a source within Ukraine's intelligence service, the SBU, told the BBC's Russian service that it had carried out the attack alongside the navy's special forces"
Ukrainian outlets Suspilne and Ukrainska Pravda report similarly, an some Russian sources also suggest it was a USV attack
Russians claim one lane will open to light vehicles July 18, full repairs for the two road spans in September and November. Rail traffic continues although some reports it suffered damage. Incremental damage to Russian logistics but probably not game changing
Yevgeny Prigozhin's coup attempt in June left everyone in the world stunned - except Russian intelligence officials, some of whom tacitly supported the catering magnate's efforts. In this exclusive for The Insider, sources in the FSB, GRU and Ministry of Internal Affairs explain why Vladimir Putin's security apparatus failed to stop Wagner from seizing a key military base and charging all the way to the gates of Moscow.
#Ukraine #Crimea summer seems to be heating up:
July 17: Kerch bridge
July 19: Stary Krym ammo depot https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/europe/russia-ukraine-crimea-depot-explosion-intl/index.html
July 22: Oktyabrske airfield / ammo depot https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-huge-explosions-rock-crimean-ammo-depot
Today: Dzhankoy https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1683361394291343360
No clear evidence what hit the bases
“Russian channel Rybar assessed the morning strike in Crimea. "UAVs took off from Kryvy Rih, reached Odesa via Mykolaiv region, and there diverted to Crimea in order to confuse Russian air defense. In parallel with this, four Storm Shadow cruise missiles were launched by Su-24…”
WaPo on #Prigozhin mutiny citing a bunch unnamed government / intelligence sources, claiming that it was pretty much what it seemed at the time: Despite advance warning Prigozhin was up to something, no immediate direction from the top, many lower ranks took a wait and see approach
Prigozhin shows up at Putin's Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg. Not sure "recently conducted a failed coup attempt in home country" is a selling point for a mercenary organization, by YMMV
https://www.ft.com/content/0a69c5e8-803d-4bd6-b5f8-8f36073372fc
OK, it was only a matter of time before North Korean munitions showed up in #Ukraine, but I kinda expected the Russians to be firing them.
Key quotes "Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings … Ukrainian soldiers said the rockets had been “seized” from a ship by a “friendly” country" while a Ukrainian official implied they might be captured from Russians
(ft link probably unpaywalled if you click from twitter)
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1685126870159802373
CNN also recently got a close look at one of #Ukraine's USVs. Operators claim that Russian's ships defenses have great difficulty countering them seems a bit optimistic though. There have been a lot more attacks than confirmed successful hits
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/30/europe/ukraine-drones-black-sea-intl/index.html
Kyiv Independent has a wild story about the Ukrainian POWs sent to Hungary. "While the POWs allegedly do have Hungarian-sounding surnames, only one speaks Hungarian and is a Hungarian citizen … it was the thinly-veiled image of saving Hungarians that mattered: who these people were in reality did not"
In early June, a bizarre and mysterious joint operation was carried out between two of Ukraine’s neighbors, one to the east and one to the west. Eleven Ukrainian soldiers, after having been held in Russian captivity for an unknown amount of time, were moved from Russia to Hungary. Although
Дипломатии не удалось остановить российское вторжение в Украину и предотвратить обвал в отношениях Запада и России. Дипломаты из МИД РФ потеряли авторитет внутри системы власти, пытаясь угодить Кремлю, и превратились в пропагандистов, не способных влиять на позицию Путина. Можно ли восстановить разрушенные войной связи России с западным миром?
Reports of a Russian project 775 Ropucha class landing ship listing heavily after USV attack on Novorossiysk https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1687353796622491650
Propaganda value of claiming no damage while you tow a heavily listing >2000 ton warship past a city of a quarter million seems questionable to me, but then again, I am no master strategist!
(Andrey appears to have it figured out)
Good example of what that earlier BBC piece on the Russian diplomatic corps described: Russian U.K. ambassador Andrey Kelin, responding to a question from Christiane Amanpour about the Prigozhin mutiny, claims that no one was killed
We saw multiple aircraft shot down and saw obituaries of their crews
Reed Mideke
Ben Brockert