Here’s the story of how a 37-follower Twitter account seeded a propaganda narrative about Hawaii that made headlines around the world, thanks to a network of right-wing influencers — and amplification by both Russian and Chinese state media.

My latest — a very deep dive into a coordinated campaign:
#socialmedia #disinformation #propaganda
https://open.substack.com/pub/weaponizedspaces/p/russia-amplifies-right-wing-influence?r=1aupz&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

How Russian media & right-wing influencers exploited Hawaii’s tragedy to undermine Ukraine support

A deep dive into a coordinated influence campaign that turned a tragedy into a talking point.

Weaponized

I first noted this campaign on Twitter a week ago, when I saw an unusual number of tweets not just expressing the same idea, but using the same specific phrase (“fund Hawaii not Ukraine”) to do so. So I decided to look into it.

While I was doing that, right-wing media picked up the narrative…. Then Russian state media started amplifying it… And then a few days later, Chinese state media joined in, too.

At that point, I knew I was looking at something interesting…

To figure out what was going on, I looked at a sample of 200 tweets using that phrase, and also purposively sampled the earliest tweets using that phrase to study its origins.

Immediately, the timing of the first 4 tweets using that phrase stood out to me. They were spaced out almost exactly an hour apart, nearly to the minute.

The jump from the 1st account, w/ 37 followers, to the 2nd account w/ 51,000+, to the 3rd — a GOP candidate for Atty General w/ 217,000+ followers — was eye-popping.

After analyzing the sample of 200 tweets, I found a lot of indicators of coordination and possible inauthentic activity, including repetition of text, imagery, & video — with one particular video appearing in at least 10% of sampled tweets/QT’s —as well as recycled content from previous fires, and from previous disinformation campaigns surrounding “directed energy weapons.”

Information laundering and recycling is extremely common in disinformation campaigns.

Several temporal trends also emerged as possible indicators of inauthentic/coordinated activity, including the spacing of the initial tweets & the time frames for subsequent tweets, with a disproportionate number of tweets posted during certain blocks of time (eg, 8-10pm)

The accounts also engaged in a lot of co-tweeting & co-retweeting — a pattern that is present in **74% of influence campaigns.**

Before long, a talking point seeded by a 37-follower account was picked up and blasted across the headlines by right-wing media & fringe-“left” media, becoming the dominant narrative among mainstream & fringe media outlets alike.

(My personal assessment is that the initial account is part of an influence network, and the account’s activity serves as a sort of flag or traffic sign for others in the network. This is common in political “war rooms.”)

Then Russian state media started amplifying the (now multiple) narratives. Russia is quite effective at identifying and exploiting existing tensions and divisions in the U.S. and other Western nations, as well as selling isolationism to democratic societies by laundering Russian propaganda through western voices.

That’s what RT did here — employing a blend of information- and belief-laundering, with Ron Paul serving as the mouthpiece for their own anti-Ukraine propaganda.

Russia uses tactics like information laundering, persona accounts, ghostwriters, paid local media, & proxy websites to make outward-facing Russian propaganda look organic, local, & homegrown — & to evade the bans that were imposed when they invaded Ukraine. They have a pretty large number of dormant persona accounts that they can activate when needed — like when their official accounts got banned — & then use the personas to peddle Kremlin propaganda while posing as citizens of other countries.

Re. the “dormant” accounts: Yoel Roth, Twitter’s former head of Trust & Safety, testified during a congressional hearing in February that “thousands or hundreds of thousands” of “counterfeit” Russian Twitter accounts targeting the U.S. are still active on the platform as part of an ongoing campaign.

I wrote about this, and how Russian accounts have gotten more sophisticated & harder to detect in the past few years.
https://weaponizedspaces.substack.com/p/twitter-exec-says-hundreds-of-thousands

Twitter exec says 'hundreds of thousands' of Russian disinformation accounts still active on Twitter

Twitter's former head of Trust and Safety told Congress that "counterfeit" Russian accounts targeting the US are still active as part of an "ongoing campaign."

Weaponized

Russia also uses its vast network of persona accounts & proxy websites to peddle fake controversies & conspiracy theories, and basically manufacture stories to get a reaction.

For example, they do things like dangle controversial and false claims out there, then wait for people to start talking about it on social media — and then write articles that cite those very same social media comments as “proof” that people are concerned about the fake controversy that they just manufactured.

So perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Global Research — a Russian proxy site linked to Russia’s military intel agency — just put up a bunch of articles accusing the US military of waging “weather warfare” with directed energy weapons (DEW’s). This is the new buzzword among the conspiracy theory crowd, who is convinced that a DEW caused the Hawaii fires.

I wrote a bit about Global Research here, if you’re interested : https://journals.lib.sfu.ca/index.php/jicw/article/view/5101/4759

View of Russia's Role in the Far-Right Truck Convoy | The Journal of Intelligence, Conflict, and Warfare

China, in recent years, has started echoing Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns, especially targeting the US. So it wasn’t a big surprise when Chinese state media joined in here and amplified Russia’s anti-Ukraine talking points about the US response in Hawaii.

This is an alliance we should all be concerned about.

And to be clear: There are legitimate criticisms of the US response to the Hawaii fires, but these failures are not the result of the US providing aid to Ukraine. In fact, they’re the same systemic failures we’ve known about for YEARS and chosen to ignore despite a spike in annual disasters and increasingly severe consequences.

US disaster response & preparedness are not in good shape. We should do something about this! But this isn’t Ukraine’s fault.

But that little bit of nuance — which some of us might just call “truth” — is exactly what disinformation seeks to eliminate, mainly by preying on your social, cognitive, & emotional vulnerabilities. That nuance is like kryptonite to disinformation.

You see, disinformation thrives in a world of artificial simplicity, where context doesn’t exist, & where inconvenient facts can simply be written right out of history books along with things like war crimes and human rights abuses. Just ask Putin.

@rvawonk

There's a political reality that needs to be addressed. When Americans perceive their basic needs are not being met, they will have far less tolerance for efforts to help others. Particularly if those efforts are seen to be failing.

@JoeChip @rvawonk

"perceive"?

It's not a perception, it's a fact.

@Archilochus
Yes. Unfortunately perception is what drives the political reality. The job of competent politics is to align perception-driven political reality with fact-driven physical reality.
@rvawonk

@rvawonk Wait until you find out who has been driving anti-biotech propaganda for years.... Setting the stage for the same people on lab leak.

https://wapo.st/3KJVmmY

Russia says Western investment in Ukraine’s farms is a plot to take over the world

The Russian security council secretary said Western nations wanted to turn Ukraine into an agrarian country.

The Washington Post
@rvawonk
Always appreciate your work. Many thanks.
@rvawonk & the people who sow disinfo don't even care if they convince everyone, because as Naomi Oreskes points out, sowing a bit of doubt and cynicism is part of the disinfo package even when they can't achieve total disbelief.
@rvawonk If anyone over there is at fault, it’s Putin. But a more important point is that we can walk and chew gum at the same time.
@rvawonk bet people spreading the whole "blame ukraine" narative love pukin!
@rvawonk @spaf
Additionally in the case of Hawaii it isn't the feds but the state/local screwups. State and local officials knew for years of the problem and did nothing and also grossly mismanaged the first few hours.
@rvawonk Yup. Lots of coverage in the Bay Area about missed opportunities for Hawaii to have learned from the wildfires there six years ago.

@rvawonk
TBF, AmeriKKKa IS "unlike a developed country."

It used to be, but now it's just an embarrassment to all the other 3rd world shitholes.

@rvawonk

Very pleased to have found you here. Well done work indeed. Thanks.

@rvawonk
This type of research and reporting is what the GOP and their allies such as ELoon are trying hard to denounce and suppress.

Thanks for working to bring more attention to the nefarious actors trying to tear apart the liberal world order using weaponized malinformation. @SeanCasten

@rvawonk this is also how the anti-LGBTQ+ panic about Target happened except it was just American right wing media

@rvawonk As I read that post, I couldn’t help notice the similarity to #TeamCrazy’s #TheBigSteal

Make a outrageous claim on RW/Social media.

Host “congressional hearings” on said outrageous claims.

Cite “congressional hearings” as proof of the validity of the outrageous claims.

@rvawonk Don't all governments especially the US use propagander? I'm not defending Russia. The US is just slightly more subtle.
@rvawonk
Zo tussendoor en uit nieuwsgierigheid en als je tijd hebt, @support , hoe werkt zoiets op Mastodon? Russische hufters kunnen ook hun eigen server opzetten in het fediverse, toch? En zo o.a. Mastodon overspoelen met fake info?
We trappen er niet zo snel in als op den Twit maar het kan toch?
@HeyLaiverd Dan kan elke server voor zich beslissen om andere servers te ‘defedereren’. Ermee geen berichten uit te wisselen dus. Je krijgt dus bubbels, maar die kunnen wel een beetje door elkaar heen lopen. ^BM @rvawonk
@rvawonk
Let's be honest, if you are losing the accounts on the birdsite that are actively targeting the USA, you probably should start with a certain Elon, boy genius.
@amokura